If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

One for the record:

The graphs below represent the state of affairs on Bush's job approval before the Republican Convention started.

In the second half of August, looking at the average of ten opinion polls (so a pretty broad sample), Bush's job approval rate was up +2,5% to 50,0% exactly, while his disapproval rate was down -1,8% to 46,2%.

So that got him a 3,8% net positive margin, 4,3% better than in the first half of August. Ever since May, his approval and disapproval rates had been within one percent of each other either way. This is the best he'd done since late March.

(The switch-over in the Fox poll from a registered-voter sample to a likely-voter sample might have had a little to do with it, since it was accompanied with a 12% bounce for Bush - but even all of the Fox bounce accounts for only a quarter of the shift in the average, so it was a marginal factor at best).

Again, this was before the Republican Convention even started. The latest Time and Newsweek polls, in which Bush netted a whopping +13 and +11 approval margin (or whatever the term for it is), are not included - they'll be in the first-half-of-September numbers.

Yeah, I think it will turn out that the SBVfT have a lot to do with this. Like, half of the bounce them, half of the bounce convention.

Average of Bush versus Kerry 2-way race polls, updated up to before the Republican Convention. There were nine polls in the last ten days of August, so a pretty broad sample for that period. The latest Time and Newsweek polls are not processed in this graph yet, they'll be in the September I update in a week or so.

Wondering where that 5-point post-Democratic Convention Kerry lead went that was in the graph last time I posted it? Explanation in this post.




Individual Bush vs Kerry two-way race polls tracked - as you can see, this one has been updated to include the latest Time and Newsweek ones ...

Yup. The swiftboat smear worked for them and we can expect to keep it up. Truth and accuracy and integrity take another blow. And John McCain has just fallen into the same dark hole where Colin Powell landed a year and a half ago.

No one is so blind as he who will not see.

Do you really think Kerry is the victim of a deceitful smear? Do you not even question the wisdom of his relentless self-promotion by everywhere presenting himself as a war hero whose courage and patriotism were beyond question and above any reproach? Don't you find anything unusual in the juxtaposition of this with his remarkably swift accumulation of Purple Hearts - all with no lasting injury or record of serious medical treatment - and followed by a very early release from active duty based on them; or even with his post-war role as the willing spokesman for VVFT, an organization later found to be populated with a large minority of professional agitators ant outright frauds? Even if you don't conclude, as I do, that he is dangerously (for a national leader) narcissistic and deceitful, don't you even question the sagacity of his judgement of likely outcomes?

Bush's National Guard File Missing Records
By MATT KELLEY

WASHINGTON (AP) - Documents that should have been written to explain gaps in President Bush's Texas Air National Guard service are missing from the military records released about his service in 1972 and 1973, according to regulations and outside experts.

For example, Air National Guard regulations at the time required commanders to write an investigative report for the Air Force when Bush missed his annual medical exam in 1972. The regulations also required commanders to confirm in writing that Bush received counseling after missing five months of drills.

No such records have been made public and the government told The Associated Press in response to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit that it has released all records it can find.

Outside experts suggest that National Guard commanders may not have produced documentation required by their own regulations.

``One of the downfalls back then in the National Guard was that not everyone wanted to be chief of staff of the Air Force. They just wanted to fly or maintain airplanes. So the record keeping could have been better,'' said retired Maj. Gen. Paul A. Weaver Jr., a former head of the Air National Guard. He said the documents may not have been kept in the first place.

Challenging the government's declaration that no more documents exist, the AP identified five categories of records that should have been generated after Bush skipped his pilot's physical and missed five months of training.

``Each of these actions by any member of the National Guard should have generated the creation of many documents that have yet to be produced,'' AP lawyer David Schulz wrote the Justice Department Aug. 26.

White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan said there were no other documents to explain discrepancies in Bush's files.

Military service during the Vietnam War has become an issue in the presidential election as both candidates debate the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Democrat John Kerry commanded a Navy Swift boat in Vietnam and won five medals, including a Silver Star. But his heroism has been challenged in ads by some veterans who support Bush.

The president served stateside in the Air National Guard during Vietnam. Democrats have accused him of shirking his Guard service and getting favored treatment as the son of a prominent Washington figure.

The AP talked to experts unaffiliated with either campaign who have reviewed Bush's files for missing documents. They said it was not unusual for guard commanders to ignore deficiencies by junior officers such as Bush. But they said missing a physical exam, which caused him to be grounded, was not common.

``It's sort of like a code of honor that you didn't go DNF (duty not including flying),'' said retired Air Force Col. Leonard Walls, who flew 181 combat missions over Vietnam. ``There was a lot of pride in keeping combat-ready status.''

Bush has said he fulfilled all his obligations. He was in the Texas Air National Guard from 1968 to 1973 and was trained to fly F-102 fighters.

``I'm proud of my service,'' Bush told a rally last weekend in Lima, Ohio.

Records of Bush's service have significant gaps, starting in 1972. Bush has said he left Texas that year to work on the unsuccessful Senate campaign in Alabama of family friend Winton Blount.





The five kinds of missing files are:





A report from the Texas Air National Guard to Bush's local draft board certifying that Bush remained in good standing. The government has released copies of those DD Form 44 documents for Bush for 1971 and earlier years but not for 1972 or 1973. Records from Bush's draft board in Houston do not show his draft status changed after he joined the guard in 1968. The AP obtained the draft board records Aug. 27 under the Freedom of Information Act.

Records of a required investigation into why Bush lost flight status. When Bush skipped his 1972 physical, regulations required his Texas commanders to ``direct an investigation as to why the individual failed to accomplish the medical examination,'' according to the Air Force manual at the time. An investigative report was supposed to be forwarded ``with the command recommendation'' to Air Force officials ``for final determination.''

Bush's spokesmen have said he skipped the exam because he knew he would be doing desk duty in Alabama. But Bush was required to take the physical by the end of July 1972, more than a month before he won final approval to train in Alabama.

A written acknowledgment from Bush that he had received the orders grounding him. His Texas commanders were ordered to have Bush sign such a document; but none has been released.

Reports of formal counseling sessions Bush was required to have after missing more than three training sessions. Bush missed at least five months' worth of National Guard training in 1972. No documents have surfaced indicating Bush was counseled or had written authorization to skip that training or make it up later. Commanders did have broad discretion to allow guardsmen to make up for missed training sessions, said Weaver and Lawrence Korb, Pentagon personnel chief during the Reagan administration from 1981 to 1985.

``If you missed it, you could make it up,'' said Korb, who now works for the Center for American Progress, which supports Kerry.

A signed statement from Bush acknowledging he could be called to active duty if he did not promptly transfer to another guard unit after leaving Texas. The statement was required as part of a Vietnam-era crackdown on no-show guardsmen. Bush was approved in September 1972 to train with the Alabama unit, more than four months after he left Texas.

Bush was approved approval to train in September, October and November 1972 with the Alabama Air National Guard's 187th Tactical Reconnaissance Group. The only record tying Bush to that unit is a dental exam at the group's Montgomery base in January 1973. No records have been released giving Bush permission to train with the 187th after November 1972.

Walls, the Air Force combat veteran, was assigned to the 187th in 1972 and 1973 to train its pilots to fly the F-4 Phantom. Walls and more than a dozen other members of the 187th say they never saw Bush. One member of the unit, retired Lt. Col. John Calhoun, has said he remembers Bush showing up for training with the 187th.

Pay records show Bush was credited for training in January, April and May 1973; other files indicate that service was outside Texas.

A May 1973 yearly evaluation from Bush's Texas unit gives the future president no ratings and stated Bush had not been seen at the Texas base since April 1972. In a directive from June 29, 1973, an Air Force personnel official pressed Bush's unit for information about his Alabama service.

``This officer should have been reassigned in May 1972,'' wrote Master Sgt. Daniel P. Harkness, ``since he no longer is training in his AFSC (Air Force Service Category, or job title) or with his unit of assignment.''

Then-Maj. Rufus G. Martin replied Nov. 12, 1973: ``Not rated for the period 1 May 72 through 30 Apr 73. Report for this period not available for administrative reasons.''

By then, Texas Air National Guard officials had approved Bush's request to leave the guard to attend Harvard Business School; his last days of duty were in July 1973.

09/05/04 12:36
© Copyright The Associated Press.




YOU WERE SAYING ?

Seems to me the article makes it clear that these forms may never have been filled out in the first place, which means they're not "missing", as the headline says, it means his records are incomplete due to clerical errors, there's a pretty big difference there.

"Missing" is like the documents that dissappeared down Sandy Berger's pants.

We haven't even seen Kerry's 94 pages of sealed records yet.

We don't even get to find out if any of his records are "missing" I guess.

Apart from bein' off topic there, Dont, whatchya got there is a pathetic, if predictable, attempt to resurrect an already long-dead non-starter. Whatchya got here: on the other hand, is not media snipin' based on nothing more substantial than records of mere clerical interest that can't be found, but the actual initiation of a high-level governmental inquiry into the falsification of official documents involving combat citations. A few years back, one Admiral Jeremy Boorda, once Chief of Naval Operations, was sorely inconvenienced by just such an investigation. Go ahead and google the name.

When you own the pentagon you can get it to do your bidding. Hide or conveniently lose your records but easily dig up your opponents. How is that for running a clean presidency? Has the God fearing president forgot the commandment about bearing falsus witness? Bush when I get you down below it's fire and brimstone for eternity.

hey there timber... it was meant to respond to georgeob1 and the continuation of the swift boat stuff.

i thought it would be appropriate because of the date.
09/05/04 12:36
© Copyright The Associated Press.

Brand X quoted General Weaver: "They just wanted to fly...so record keeping could have been better," A clerical error; documents may not have been kept in the first place.
What a novel concept!

Dear IRS I failed to file tax returns for the years you are asking about not because I was trying to hide anything. Rather, I just wanted to work to support my family. It was a clerical error.

Didn't mean for ya ta think I was jumpin on ya there for "Off-Topic", Dont ... hell, I wander around a bit myself from time to time. We all do. No harm, no foul.

no problem. my own fault, really. i get sucked into the sbvt thing everytime.

guess i'll have to start counting to 10...

Au, The Whitehouse had nothing to do with the investigation; it is the result of actions brought by Judicial Watch

Timber...you naughty naughty boy. I invite everyone to click on the "media center" link to get a notion (if they've been on some other planet and didn't know) of what JW is up to. It ain't pretty, it ain't ethical, and it ain't 'fair and balanced'. It's a conservative front group, and always has been.

Now, to suggest that the WH (by which we mean the re-election committee under Carl Rove) is uninvolved with this continuation of the Swiftboat smear job, is naive or disingenuous. Attack by proxy is a common Rove strategy. Whether it is also the strategy of others is relevant only in a broad indictment of the whole goddamn ugly mess that pretends to be something noble and jampacked with truth and goodness. Of course the WH is up to its eyeballs in this.

You have made several categorical statements here. Do you KNOW they are true, or do you just ASSUME so?

Long before George Bush began his political career Mr O'Neill and other of Kerry's fellow officers were campaigning to unmask Kerry's many deceptions. It is far from obvious to me that they required either outside assistance or motivation to do what they have done. There have been strong feelings of contempt for John Kerry in the Navy for many years- this phenomenon is not of recent origin.

hah!!
Long before George Bush began his political career Mr O'Neill's only problem with kerry was his antiwar activity upon returning to the u.s. following 2 VOLUNTARY tours of duty in vietnam. if swifty o'neill had a problem with anything else with kerry, he should have brought it up during the big televised cavatt show. but no. he only sat there bitching about kerry's congressional interview.

o'neill and his swiftboat veterans for bitterness are the ones who have been caught in their own falsehoods. especially mister "i wasn't in cambodia despite what the tape recording with president nixon proves" o'neill.

i don't care if kerry milked a pet goat on the mekong for 4 minutes, 4 hours, 4 days, 4 weeks or 4 months. its still 4 more of anything you care to name than your favorite chickenhawk, george dubya bush, spent doing anything beyond stroking his own pathetic, childish ego in the safety of his daddy's big back yard.

you guys are the ones that are so damned worried about who served and will will step up for america.

get a grip.

quit hangin' out with loafers. it makes ya look stupid.

Today's Rasmussen Reports update looks bleak, but has some silver linings.

The bleak part is notably the weekly tracking update, which shows Bush up by 2,8% in the week ending Thursday, September 2. That doesn't include any response to Bush's own speech at the Convention yet, meaning next week's will probably be worse.

2,8% may still not sound like much. But Rasmussen has had the race extremely close all the time - none of the more volatile up and down of the other races. Its like every shift reflects in the Rasmussen polls only in a muffled manner. The significant thing here is that the +2,8% was the biggest lead he's enjoyed all year, and the first time he's ahead by at least one point since June 10.

OK, now for the silver linings.

In the daily Rasmussen tracking poll, Bush and Kerry were virtually tied up to September 1: they were either tied, or Bush had a 1-point lead on seven out of the previous eight days. Both with either 46 or 47%. Then Bush leapt to a 4-point lead (49% to 45%) on Sep 2 and 3, and a 4,4% lead on Sep 4 (49,1%/44,7%).

Today, though, the race is already back again to a 1-point margin. Bush has 47,6%; Kerry 46,4%. That was quick.

Same pattern, though less complete, with Bush's job approval. On the eight days up to Sep 1, Bush's job approval rate, according to Rasmussen, was either 51% or 52%, and his disapproval rate either 48% or 49%. So a margin of +2/+4. The Convention bounce took it to 54% versus 46%, a margin of +8, on Sep 4 even +8,6%.

Today, it's back to 52,5% versus 47,1%. Margin: +5,4%. Almost back to the pre-Convention status quo.

Rasmussen's Electoral College prediction, though, has had Bush in the lead since Aug 28 and that's been the first time all year he's been ahead. For two months up to Aug 20, Kerry's always had at least 223 EV's, and Bush at most 208; he'd gradually slid down to 183 in fact. But on Aug 27, Kerry slipped himself beneath 200 and the day after, Bush got up to 200: 200/190 in Bush's favour. Day after that, Bush gained another 13; but Kerry got back another 17: 213/207. Today, after a six-day interval: no change whatsoever, with Minnesota still a toss-up and California still for Kerry. Tomorrow they'll have MI and NJ.

Substitute 'Bush' for Kerry in the above and you have my precise sentiments.