I recall McAuliffe sayin' somethin' like an 8 or 9% Post-RNC bounce for Bush the Younger was to be anticipated ... then again, it was McAuliffe who projected a double-digit bounce for Kerry.
So lets see here ... Kerry gets an unprecedented negative bounce following the DNC, while The Incumbent actually gained across several polls going into his convention and now several polls derived from sampling during the RNC ... prior to The Acceptance Speech, show not just consolidation of those earlier gains, but further, and substantial, gains.
Interesting.
Amusing.
Looks like Kerry is done. Oh well, it looks like we'll be under Republican control for the next twelve years, if you count Giuiani's two terms.
Well, this is the worst of it -- SBVfT coming in with perfect timing, the convention, and Kerry's break from spending in August. One-two-three punch. We'll see what happens next, but I don't think it's over by a long shot.
kickycan
Why are you being suicidal?
I've realized that John Kerry has no balls. He will lose. And I'm betting it won't even be that close.
Wait say 3 weeks kicky. Then we'll see how things are going.
I think this is the lowest point right here, and we don't even know how low yet.
The Post-Convention Republican bounce apparently is no "Single Poll Blip":
Quote:Newsweek Poll: Republican Convention 2004
Saturday September 4, 11:46 am ET
Bush/Cheney Lead Kerry/Edwards 54 to 43 Percent; in a Three-Way Trial Heat, Bush/Cheney Receive 13-Point Margin Bounce
Bush Approval Rating Rises to 52 Percent; First Time Above 50 Since January; Majority (53%) Wants to See Him Re-Elected-Highest Since May 2003 ...
Quote:SurveyUSA: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention
VERONA, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 3, 2004--The number of Americans who think George W. Bush will be re-elected in November has suddenly
jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities around the country, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted before, during and after the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.
SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture "momentum" swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness.
Examples:
-- In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.
-- In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.
-- In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry.
Each poll was conducted of an entire metropolitan area, known as a TV market, and defined by Nielsen Media Research as the "Designated Market Area" (DMA). In no metropolitan area, in any part of the country, did Kerry's numbers go up. Four separate polls of 500 adults each were conducted in 30 TV markets and in 2 states. (128 discrete pieces of opinion research; 64,000 separate telephone interviews.) Each survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5%.
The polls were conducted:
-- 7/22/04: The week before the DNC
-- 7/30/04: The day after Kerry's acceptance speech
-- 8/26/04: The week before the RNC
-- 9/3/04: The day after Bush's acceptance speech.
"The Democrats are eviscerated," says Jay H. Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA. "Even in the most solidly Democratic corners of this country, a majority of adults suddenly believe that George W. Bush will win in November."
Doesn't look encouraging so far for The Kerry Camp. Most telling, of course, will be the results released following the Labor Day Holiday and the trending from that point forward. It would be not be unreasonable, however, to conclude from the currently available evidence - the multi-poll pre-convention Republican upticks coupled with the strong bounces seen the past couple of days - that a momentum has been established.
Timber
It sure looks bad for Kerry. However, with this fickle and the large politically ignorant segment of the population I am not ready to throw in the towel yet. I still remember the headline in the Daily News. Dewey Wins.
What constitutes the "large politically ignorant segment of the population", au.?
ABB voters?
I love polls, there was one that asked people if they would vote for any or all of the amendments listed in the Bill of Rights, a large majority said no.
nimh's not here to put things in perspective, so I went and found one of his favorite sites, Dale's ECB:
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
Last updated 9/2, still has Kerry in the lead, 211 to 191.
Joe Nation wrote:Got the stopper.
"Okay, go ahead. Vote'm in again. Go ahead, then I'll know who to blame."
i said a similar thing to a staunch young conservative ( who admitted that he was a former "bonger" that was falling in line with his new born again wife) the day after the last election.
me; "well, o.k. i'm secure in the knowledge that i didn't vote for him"
syc; "and i'm secure in the knowledge that i did."
he's been a little sheepish lately...
true, kerry's gonna be rolling the boulder up the hill to prevail.
he really is going to have to quit noncin' around, strap 'em back on and get down to the filthy work that is politics.
i think he probably would have been better of keeping his 12am speech short and to the point. "you wanna play dirty? have it your way... ya misleading, draft dodging, hypocrites."
then gather up the dirt and go to town.
here. i'll even give him one;
"bush says he's going to invest heavily in all of these old and new programs and continue hemorrhaging cash into the money pit known as iraq." and tells us "but don't worry, you won't have to pay for it! we'll just put it on the plastic!" "and cut the deficit in half in 4 years, too !!"
"folks, he thinks that you are stupid. yep, dumber than a rock. but, you and i know that there's no free lunch. ya wanna eat well, ya gotta open up the wallett and kick out a few bucks." "president bush tells you with a straight face that you can have the good life while getting big tax cuts" "many, many of which benefit his corporate buddies, insisting that they will reinvest in business and create more and better paying jobs". "is he telling you the truth? will they reinvest for the good of the american people, or will they simply pocket the cash and go to lunch?".
"before you answer, think about this...". "when you got that $300 tax rebate a few years back, did you give your gardner a raise, and by extension allow him to hire another helper?". "or did you simply go out for dinner and pick up a new dvd player on the way home?".
"if you are honest with yourself, i believe you know the answer to this question.".
"having an america that is and that will continue to be the best place on earth is going to cost you something. we all know this.".
"so your choice is this.".
" do you want a president that will tell you the ugly truth and say it's going to cost you?"
"or do you want a president who will refuse to take responsibility for insuring that the cost of our continued common welfare and simply hand the bill to his, and your, children?".
Soz. the projection shown on Dale's site reflects polls prior to Sept 1. There won't be another update there 'till after Labor Day. When he does update, look for his projection to be a bit less enthusiastic than those of some others ... Dale is very conservative about his prognostications.
Meanwhile, an
AP Poll just out shows Bush/Cheney with 237 EC votes to Kerry/Edwards' 211
Larry434
I could say the republican lemmings they fit the profile. However, being tied by the umbilical cord to the republican party no matter how irrational they will vote as directed.
Remember you asked
I had gone on record predicting a 6-8% bounce.
Sorry I misunderestimated Bush.
But, I'm not crowing. Things can change--in this nutty political season.
I do, however, predict a decent margin with Bush's victory.
I can't assign this to Kerry. Ultimately, I don't think any Dem could've given Bush a run for his money.
In the interests of two strong parties, I would suggest that the Dems gather together with 2008 in mind--and find a soul--a purpose that is useful to this country that the GOP doesn't currently espouse--and start grooming a REAL platform
and three or four viable candidates.
au1929 wrote:Larry434
I could say the republican lemmings they fit the profile. However, being tied by the umbilical cord to the republican party no matter how irrational they will vote as directed.
Remember you asked
I would agree that blind paritsans, on both sides of the aisle, would fit in with the disdain you expressed for your fellow citizens , au.
But those are split about evenly among the electorate, so thinking independents, (liberal and conservative) will be the deciding factor in the upcoming election...just my opinion of course.
I was away for two days, by the way, meeting at some convention centre, so I'm just seeing these polls now for the first time. Hot damn.
(I did see most of Bush's speech on CNN in the repeat. Not having a TV myself I always forget how bad a speaker he is, I mean, just even aside from what he says.)
Well, what can I say? I'm really, really disappointed. I thought the Republican Convention came across as an angry, firebrand Convention, much more so than I'd expected considering the line-up. The electoral tactic seems clear: terror, terror, war abroad, terror. It seems to still work. 9/11 is too short ago, I guess, people still angry and fearful enough to buy into it. I dunno.
In any case, all this is pretty devastating news. I dont think I saw anyone predict this kind of bounce after the RNC. Common wisdom after the Dem Convention's non-bounce was that the camps had solidified. Apparently not. Thats really, really bad news. No way to put a brave face on it.
Right now I guess Kicky has the ticket. My gut feeling is: the majority had great doubts about Bush, but they looked at Kerry and thought, nope, doesnt necessarily look any better, and then they were forcefully reminded of terror, terror, terror and switched back. Dont see how that will easily turn around again, I mean, what new reason to desert Bush after all can Kerry still come up with now that voters havent already considered? Only perhaps if Bush gets totally blown out of the water by Kerry in the debates - but Kerry's hardly known to be a convincing or appealing speaker himself.
Then again, whats my gut feeling worth? Its turned out to be laughably wrong this time, so ... <shrugs>
