If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

West-Virginia, now that was a state that wasn't, I think, on anyone's list of battleground states a couple of months ago ... ?

But now, its trending for Kerry.

In April, state polls there had Bush still in a relatively comfortable lead of 4-5 percent...

In the past 2 weeks, there has been a shift to Kerry among independents nationally, in New Hampshire, and now in West Virginia.

Bush loses advantage in war on terrorism

[..] Exactly half the country now approves of the way Bush is managing the U.S. war on terrorism, down 13 percentage points since April, according to the poll. Barely two months ago, Bush comfortably led Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, by 21 points when voters were asked which man they trusted to deal with the terrorist threat. Today the country is evenly divided, with 48 percent preferring Kerry and 47 percent favoring Bush. [..]

The shift is potentially significant because Bush has consistently received higher marks on fighting terrorism than on Iraq, and if the decline signals a permanent loss of confidence in his handling of the fight against terrorism, that could undermine a central part of his reelection campaign message.

Overall the poll had mixed news for both candidates. Bush's marks for handling the economy and Iraq both rose slightly over the past month, but his overall approval rating remains below 50 percent. Kerry leads Bush in a three-way test that includes independent Ralph Nader and is seen as more honest and trustworthy than the president, but those surveyed question whether he has a plan for Iraq.

Fewer than half of those surveyed -- 47 percent -- say the war in Iraq was worth fighting, while 52 percent say it was not, the highest level of disapproval recorded in Post-ABC News polls. Seven in 10 Americans now say there has been an "unacceptable" level of casualties in Iraq, up 6 points from April and also a new high in Post-ABC News polling. A majority say the United States should keep its forces in Iraq until the country is stabilized, but the proportion who want to withdraw now to avoid further casualties -- 42 percent -- has inched up again to a new high. Two in three Americans say the war has improved the lives of the Iraqi people, and a growing number of Americans say the United States is making significant progress toward a democratic government. Last month, 37 percent said they saw significant progress, while 50 percent say so now.

The public is sharply divided over whether the war contributed to the long-term security of the United States, with 51 percent saying it has, a new low in Post-ABC polls. Three in four say the conflict has damaged the image of the United States throughout the world, and a majority believe the war has not improved prospects for long-term peace and stability in the Middle East.

Movement among independents

Virtually all of the recent movement against the war has occurred among political independents. Among those with no firm party ties, the proportion who said the war was "not worth fighting" increased from 48 percent in May to 59 percent in the latest poll.

Bush's approval rating on his handling of Iraq remains negative but rose slightly in the past month to 44 percent, with 55 percent saying they disapprove.

On the key domestic issue of the economy, 46 percent give Bush positive marks, up 7 points since March and his best showing since January. The survey also found that nearly half the country rates the health of the economy as "excellent" or "good," up 6 points from March and the highest since July 2001, following a succession of positive economic statistics.

But improved marks on Iraq and the economy did not translate into a rise in Bush's overall approval rating, nor did they improve his standing against Kerry in a hypothetical November matchup. [..]

The survey found that Kerry's advantages over Bush extended to a range of issues. When asked which they trusted to do the better job, Kerry held a double-digit advantage over Bush as the candidate the public preferred to deal with health care (21 points), taxes (13 points), prescription drug benefits for the elderly (12 points) and education (10 points), and smaller leads on handling international affairs (8 points), the economy (5 points) and the federal budget deficit (4 points).

In only one area -- Iraq -- was Bush more trusted, 50 percent to 45 percent.

Bush viewed as stronger leader

The president is viewed as a stronger leader than Kerry and as the candidate who can be most trusted in a crisis. He is also seen as best able to "make the country safer and more secure" and the one who "takes a position and sticks with it."

But by 52 percent to 39 percent, Kerry is seen as more honest and trustworthy -- a troubling finding for Bush, whose truthfulness before the war in Iraq has been called into question.

The survey also found that eight in 10 Americans support the transfer of power from the U.S.-led coalition to an interim Iraqi government on June 30. Nearly half -- 48 percent -- said it should be Iraqis who have the final say over the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq, while just as many say it should be the Americans. Big majorities said the new Iraqi government and not the United States also should control Iraq's oil industry and handle the distribution of aid from other nations. [..]

In stark contrast to four years ago, when then-Democratic nominee Al Gore kept Clinton at a distance, Democrats plan to make the former president an integral part of this year's campaign. While the former president's book tour will keep him occupied much of the summer, aides are already trying to work political appearances around his domestic travels.

Republicans acknowledge that Clinton is a plus for Democrats here. "If he gets out and really campaigns for Kerry, it could make a big difference. In my opinion, it would be the difference," says Bill Vickery, a Little Rock-based GOP consultant.

Recent polls in the state have shown Bush and Kerry in a tight race. Local politicians say Bush has been hurt by problems in Iraq; 11 Arkansas soldiers have died there since the war began. Many mayors from across the state, in Little Rock last week for an Arkansas Municipal League conference, say that their communities are split 50-50.

"It's going to be a dogfight," says Mayor Robert Patrick, an independent from St. Charles.

Numbers are really quite striking ... and ABC/WaPo usually has solid enough numbers, nothing all too far outlying (if anything it usually polls a slightly higher than average job rating for Bush, for example). Just cant figure out how much of a one-off this one is, in comparison with other polls, or whether its a harbinger of things to come.

But by 52 percent to 39 percent, Kerry is seen as more honest and trustworthy -- a troubling finding for Bush, whose truthfulness before the war in Iraq has been called into question.

Republicans are, in a word, terrified at the prospect of campaigning again against the Big Dog. Their rhetoric of late has been (all of them are saying it and none of them seems to know what it means, exactly) that Bill Clinton will "suck all the oxygen" from John Kerry.

Kerry continues to improve among independents, with Kerry now leading Bush 51% to 38% among independents. 11% of Democrats, however, still say they will vote for Bush.

Kerry has slipped from 87% among Democrats in May to 83% among Democrats in this survey, but Kerry leads Bush 53% to 38% among independents in this survey compared to a Kerry lead of 48% to 43% among independents in May.