Thanks again to Timber for the links. (And agreed on 'Democrats for Bush' having made the difference - although you'll note below that there were actually fewer Democrats-for-Bush than in 2000.)
Lemme make a list, cause thats what I do.
Kerry's results compared to Gore's, among
Working women: -7%
Not married: +1%
White Men: +1%
White Women: -4%
(If you're wondering how he can lose among three out of four of these groups and still get the same total overall percentage, it's because Afro-Americans and Latinos, who still are in majority Democratic voters, turned out in higher proportions vis-a-vis Whites, in majority Republican, than they did in 2000.
Ergo, instead of 90% of blacks, Kerry got 88% - but more of them turned out.)
Under $15k: +6%
$75-100k: no ch.
Over $100k: -2%
No high school: -9%
High school grad: -1%
Some college: +1%
College grad: +1%
Large city: -11%
Small city: -8%
Small town: +10%
(Surprise!! Compared to Gore, it's the cities
Kerry did badly in, not the small towns!)
Northeast: no ch.
Midwest: no ch.
("West" here is not just the Pacific Coast. Go check the interactive results map on NYTimes.com. It will show you a county-by-county map of where Kerry won compared to Gore's results and where he lost (and the same for Bush compared to his previous result, of course). No surprise is that Kerry lost in the South and borderstates. Surprise is that he won plenty of extra votes in the mountain states - Montana and such. Unfortunately, it will take many more gains like those to ever make these states competitive ...)
(How can Kerry have won among both Dems and Indys and still not have netted a higher percentage overall? Because Dems constituted a smaller - and Reps a larger - share of the overall electorate this time.)
(See explanation above. Kerry did better among Liberals and Moderates than Gore had done, but the effect was outdone by the increase of conservatives turning out - or voters defining themselves as conservative.)
(Kerry's gains among "other" religions (Muslims?) come equally from former Bush and Nader voters; his gains from the a-religious are mostly picked up from Nader. Nader pulled 7% of both these constituencies in 2000).
Union members: -1%
Gun owner in household: no change
Gay, Lesbian or Bisexual: +7%
(77% of gays etc. voted Kerry.)
I think thats about it for the demographics in these exit polls. Thanks for your patience (I find these fascinating! ;-)).
Thing that strikes me most is how little actually changed. Plus ca change ... really. Kerry roughly mobilised the same blocks as Gore.
are the narrowing of the gender gap, Kerry's spectacular losses among those without high school and among Latinos, his inroads among low-wage earners (an odd combination with his losses among those with low education) and the drastic narrowing
, contradictory to all the post-election rhetorics (in which I contributed here), of the urban-rural divide.