@jgweed,
jgweed;77221 wrote:I am far more concerned about the quiet destruction of both civilisation and the earth itself than with a nuclear war between now and 2040.
Civilisation as we know it might be in big trouble, but the Earth will be pretty much peachy for billions of years yet. There's nothing we could really do to it with our current level of destructive capability that would damage it in comparison to collision with Tethis, or the larger asteroids it's faced before. It's faced that in the past. In the future it'll face the sun going nova, and collision with Andromeda - we're a piffling irritation in comparison!
Besides - it's a big ball of rock - it doesn't care what's done to it. But if you do please don't worry - it'll be home to fascinating life for aeons to come despite the acts of any species currently infesting it.
When people bemoan loss of civilisation they really just angst over western civilisation because that's what they know best. If we are to face a sharp drop in number (as is likely given our recent exponential spike in numbers set against the stasis or diminishment of the resources needed to sustain us) I think there's no reason to assume that we will be made extinct - more likely we will suffer the fate of other plague animals such as rabbits in australia, or rats in a grain silo - we'll still be here after the big die off - just in far lesser numbers.
Until something usurps us from our ecological niche, such as a more successful sapient tool-maker, or a truely catastrophic event like a big asteroid strike, we'll probably hang on in some sort of humbled state in various enclaves, and maybe even experience a renaissance.
It's not like humans can't live humbly - there's no reason to believe those following a hunter-gatherer lifestyle in the middle of a large island would have to perish just because the oceans rise and coral reefs die and species get lost.
Now I don't say this to engender any sort of feeling of complacency - if we want to minimise suffering and maximise the chances of ourselves and our offspring from losing quality of life I think we have to make major changes.
But let's be realistic - humanity will likely not face extinction because of it's own behaviour, it will likely face a Ragnarok scenario where many people suffer war, pain, privation and horror whilst the scales rebalance themselves and a much diminished human population are once again able to live with a share of the resources more suited to their newly humbled needs.
---------- Post added 07-14-2009 at 01:40 PM ----------
Zetherin;77224 wrote:These things will be cleaned up naturally in a couple hundred years, don't fret. I'm hoping there will be absolutely no evidence we were ever here. Good riddance to us.
Not to wish to get at you in particular but I think you're just indulging in a well-worn fin de siecle fantasy. Since the very first writings about what people believe people had been claimed to be living in a final age, an end of days that they or their direct descendants will bear witness to. It's a central tenant of most major religions and there is only one reason that I think it is so pervasive...
It panders to human arrogance to believe that they will bear witness to the end of history.
We, by and large, would have liked to have been at the start, but that's not possible, so we can claim to be there for the end. This is what Jesus told his followers 2000 years ago and it is what secular and religious doomsayers preach today. But there is no real reason to believe in an armageddon, a snap extinction, it's a mere matter of the satisfaction of saying "I am going to bear witness to the end" that people say it is.
As I stated in my last post - what's more likely is that humans will cope somehow - in vastly diminished number very probably - but even the most doom-laden of human-wrought environmental disaster scenarios don't leave Earth wholly uninhabitable - and the religious visions are bad fairytales with a proven track record of not coming true.
There will be no armageddon unless nature takes a very unexpected turn - there may well be some sort of ragnarok, at the end of which the blearied survivors of the upcoming famines and resource wars reach a state of closer equilibrium with their ecosystem.
"Good riddance to us"? Likely in a lot of cases, but there is no logical reason to doubt that enclaves of human life will cope - even with the worst.