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Predicting the future

 
 
thysin
 
Reply Fri 17 Apr, 2009 02:04 am
It seems to me that everyone can predict the future to an extent, not with 100% accuracy, of course, but at least enough to be useful(cause and effect). One of the things that made me think about this was watching some 'elaborate halo suicide videos' via rube goldberg machines on youtube.

So since we see that on a very basic level, prediction of the future can work with relative success as long as you are aware of all the factors that contribute to an event. With that said, how far do you think we will go with this? Do you think it's likely we will be able to successfully develop a supercomputer of some sort that would be able to reliably predict certain things? And what do you think it should/could predict?
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Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 1,403 • Replies: 16
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Darunia9
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Apr, 2009 08:32 am
@thysin,
I think that it will be possible to make a super computer to predict most things, as already we can models to predict certain things and most sciences are deterministic and their role is to predict the future, of chemical reactions, forces, and human behaviour. But I would like to think that it's impossible to completely predict human behaviour, even if it's just because there are so many factors, because it would makes us different from other material things and give life some meaning.
0 Replies
 
VideCorSpoon
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Apr, 2009 05:11 pm
@thysin,
This notion has been discussed before...

YouTube - Spaceballs-When Will Then be Now?
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Theaetetus
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Apr, 2009 05:58 pm
@thysin,
Nothing like a clip from the classic comedy Spaceballs.
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Victor Eremita
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Apr, 2009 06:19 pm
@thysin,
Ah yes Spaceballs! I can't believe you fell for it! Now you see why evil will triumph, because good is dumb.

It's all about probability. We can predict with some level of accuracy the immediate future: if I'm walking across the street, there's no way to be absolutely 100% certain I'll get to the other side, but there is high probablity that I would, given the cirumstances (traffic level, length of street, chance of UFO abduction, etc.)
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thysin
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Apr, 2009 10:54 pm
@thysin,
I love that movie.

To explain a bit more...

If you take a snapshot of time(with some sort of biometric supercomputer), the smallest possible, that recorded every factor in a given situation...let's say it's something like Plinko from the Price is Right. Every single factor, down to the smallest molecule is recorded in this snapshot. Without any outside factors to influence what will happen when the little disc is dropped, that snapshot is basically an arrow pointing to the next slice of time, and that one an arrow for the next....and so on...so in every instance there is the pattern for the next one....either way I suppose it's not really interesting enough because of it's impracticality with today's technology. Only thing I could see messing with this 'free will'....but that's another can of worms.
GoshisDead
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 03:13 am
@thysin,
free will versus omniscience has been a paradox for quite a while, but yes that is another can of worms.
xris
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 05:01 am
@GoshisDead,
With all you prophets i would like the winner of the 2.30 at Kempton ,please..Ive got a fiver so i will split the winnings..
0 Replies
 
VideCorSpoon
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2009 07:56 am
@thysin,
thysin wrote:
I love that movie.

To explain a bit more...

If you take a snapshot of time(with some sort of biometric supercomputer), the smallest possible, that recorded every factor in a given situation...let's say it's something like Plinko from the Price is Right. Every single factor, down to the smallest molecule is recorded in this snapshot. Without any outside factors to influence what will happen when the little disc is dropped, that snapshot is basically an arrow pointing to the next slice of time, and that one an arrow for the next....and so on...so in every instance there is the pattern for the next one....either way I suppose it's not really interesting enough because of it's impracticality with today's technology. Only thing I could see messing with this 'free will'....but that's another can of worms.


Almost everything you said falls in line with Leibniz's Monadology. Leibniz even mentions the notion of frew will in the fundamental question "was Caesar free to cross the Rubicon?" Info from an earlier post I did;

To Leibniz, a substance has to be completely self sufficient, hence we come to Leibniz's Principle of Sufficient Reason. In Leibniz's PSR, everything has; a) a complete explanation, and b) nothing exists which cannot be fully explained. The complete explanation in Leibniz's PSR must be contained within the substance. There is also complete reason, which entails that a thing has to be necessary and sufficient. Self sufficiency for Leibniz entails that there be some form of activity (like a change in property or something like that.) Now, applying PSR, any change must be explained with each substance, but also any properties have to be explained by itself and not by something else. This is where we get the neat Latin phrase from Leibniz Phenomena bene fundatum (the well founded phenomena). So, essentially take away the fact that substances cannot be explained by substances. Important now is to understand a few points. Now a substance is self-sufficient, but like what was previously said, it has to be a) active, and b) maintain an active principle. Also, all properties are representations.

Now shift for a second to notion notcause, or more precisely, which is the dominant monad. The monad that causes is the one which reflects the world most accurately. This makes sense if you review the nature of the three types of monads. Now also think of the nature of appetition and cause and effect. Think of a film strip, where the next state of a captured scene is caused by the previous one. Within each "scene" or really "state," is what has, will, and will come to be already within it (i.e. PSR). You then get into the principles of knowledge, which is probably going too far, but that last sentence was what I was essentially getting at.
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Alan McDougall
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2009 03:03 pm
@thysin,
Quote:

VideCorSpoon quoted earlier
Now the monads. There are entelechies, animal monads, and rational monads (you can substitute monads with soul if you want, they are interchangeable). Entelechies are unconscious, with no growth and reflect the universe confusedly. It has appetition, and is the source of its own internal changes. However, it is not matter (oddly enough) because it can be divided into parts.

Animal monads (souls) are a point at which we spend most of our lives. Animal souls have conscious perception, have memory (the ability to collect instances over time according to Leibniz), and from this basis can form expectations and inductive reasoning. Rational souls go beyond the animal soul, characterized by rationalization, self consciousness, containing the conceptions of "I" or "me" as well as abstraction. Keep in mind that an animal soul has its attributes plus the attributes of entelechies, and the rational soul has what its attributes have plus that of the animal soul and the entelechy.


Ah !! monads; there are sleeping monads of a higher order that only perceive us in their dreams

We are higher monads to lower sleeping monads that only perceive us in their dreams

Downward into infinite regression the "highest sentient omniscient monad" invade the dreams of lower level monads and know everything about the sleeping monads what they are doing and thinking

The highest Monads are the only entities that are truly aware and awake. To them ever monads of a lower dimension is always asleep Who are they?

The lowest monad never wakes it always dreams. Are we awake to higher monads or do our wake state equate to sleep to higher monads than us

Where on this ladder of conscious awareness are we ?

But if we are not the top intelligent monad maybe we can tap downward and upwards and consolidate all knowledge and predict the future?

I don't think we need a supercomputer to give us a view on the future, I like to think that there is a cosmological super- consciousness that holds all the knowledge in the universe

Many call this God and that is as good a word I can think for an omniscience source or prime monad. God never sleeps or slumbers but every other monads does, don't you think?

Peace Alan
0 Replies
 
Yogi DMT
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 May, 2009 06:07 pm
@thysin,
I think we can predict the future to a certain extent. The main factor here is how specific of a prediction needs to be made. When it comes to a vast subject i think predicting will be an easier matter, ex: tension = war, tension does not equal peace for the most part. That sort of concept. Our world is very unpredictable and therefore analyzing history and making projections is not an easy thing, accuracy depends on the subject matter being predicted, some things like the one i mentioned above are much easier predicted than telling the future of people's actions and ideas. I think natural disasters, weather, ect. are easily predicated given a sufficent amount of quality observations and evidence This is because past experiences teaches us and leads us to a well-conjured idea of the next events based on the previous events. When people come into play, thats where things get a little less forseeable. The human mind is so complex and unpredictable, it would be near impossible to have a good idea of what could possibly happen next. As for predicting the future to a 100% accuracy, i personally do not think that will ever become reality, even in the most predictable aspects of our world such as factual information, mathemtics, and such. Defintions, perceptions, and opinions can always change even if it is in a miniscule way. I'd rather call predicting- an estimation of the likely actions of another day Smile because predictions can imply forseeing into the future in a very accurate way (Ex: i can predict the future!) even though it is commonly understood as just a guess of the following events.
lovetothink
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 May, 2009 01:42 pm
@Yogi DMT,
you could certainly predict the outcome of present actions for example I ordered something online today, I can predict that the parcel will come on a Friday but my prediction is limited because I'm only taking into account one variable which is the general speed of the postal system, I could get my parcel on Thursday or Saturday due to some variables i didn't consider. predicting the future is a tricky business but you hear future predictions every day if you listen to the weather forecast.
xris
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 May, 2009 02:09 pm
@lovetothink,
lovetothink wrote:
you could certainly predict the outcome of present actions for example I ordered something online today, I can predict that the parcel will come on a Friday but my prediction is limited because I'm only taking into account one variable which is the general speed of the postal system, I could get my parcel on Thursday or Saturday due to some variables i didn't consider. predicting the future is a tricky business but you hear future predictions every day if you listen to the weather forecast.
Its a scam web sight you will never get it.Predicting is a corruption of wishful thinking, nothing more.If someone gives me the winner of the 3.30 every day for a week thats predicting.
Alan McDougall
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 May, 2009 02:57 pm
@xris,
xris wrote:
Its a scam web sight you will never get it.Predicting is a corruption of wishful thinking, nothing more.If someone gives me the winner of the 3.30 every day for a week thats predicting.


xris have you wondered why no psychics of fortune tellers ever win the lotto?
0 Replies
 
Krumple
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 May, 2009 07:02 pm
@thysin,
Quote:
xris have you wondered why no psychics of fortune tellers ever win the lotto?


It's only because they are too busy running the phone in hotlines. You think they can do everything just because they are psychic? They aren't all powerful, there's only so much time in the day.

I can predict something though.

I have a rock in my hand and hit you in the head with it. I bet you will look at me disgruntled. There, I predicted the future!
Alan McDougall
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2009 07:00 am
@Krumple,
Krumple wrote:
It's only because they are too busy running the phone in hotlines. You think they can do everything just because they are psychic? They aren't all powerful, there's only so much time in the day.

I can predict something though.

I have a rock in my hand and hit you in the head with it. I bet you will look at me disgruntled. There, I predicted the future!


Ha ha all they have to do is win the lotto and never do a thing again in their miserable fraudulence lives
0 Replies
 
xris
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 May, 2009 07:11 am
@Krumple,
Krumple wrote:
It's only because they are too busy running the phone in hotlines. You think they can do everything just because they are psychic? They aren't all powerful, there's only so much time in the day.

I can predict something though.

I have a rock in my hand and hit you in the head with it. I bet you will look at me disgruntled. There, I predicted the future!
Wishful thinking again Alan is masochist, he would give you a kiss.
0 Replies
 
 

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