Pope John Paul and His Succession

The World Today - Speculation over who will succeed Pope John Paul II

[This is the print version of story http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2003/s955919.htm]


The World Today - Monday, 29 September , 2003 12:18:17
Reporter: Elizabeth Jackson
ELIZABETH JACKSON: Well one man who has been watching the Vatican's movements with great interest is former Catholic Priest, Doctor Paul Collins, who has written extensively on the history of the Papacy and he joins us now in Canberra.

Paul Collins, not wishing to take anything away from him, but was Archbishop Pell, in a sense, a shoe-in, given that he was the Archbishop of Sydney, because I think it's every Archbishop since 1940 has received this honour?

PAUL COLLINS: The simple answer is yes, as Archbishop Pell himself said, in answer to the first question. In fact there was even a cardinal before that, Cardinal Moran in the late 19th century and the early 20th century, and in fact the only Archbishop of Sydney who was not a Cardinal in the last 140 years is Archbishop Sheehan, who died in 1939, I think.

So, there's no doubt that Archbishop Pell would be made a cardinal as soon as he was moved from Melbourne, and probably that was the intention of the Vatican in moving him to Sydney, to make sure that he did become the quite clear and unquestioned leader and senior Bishop of the Catholic Church in Australia.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Presumably he would have been sorely disappointed had he not been appointed cardinal.

PAUL COLLINS: Well, you'd have to ask him that, but I would presume that. In many ways he's cast himself in the role of the leader of Australian bishops and the leader of the Catholic Church, and in some ways, willy-nilly at any rate, has become a spokesman for the Catholic Church in Australia and for the Australian Catholic bishops, although interestingly, he is not the President of the Australian Episcopal Conference. That honour belongs to my own archbishop, Archbishop Francis Carroll, the Archbishop of Canberra and Goulbourn.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Now, it appears that as though this time things are being fast-tracked. Is this a sign that Pope John Paul II is of the view that perhaps he might not be around for much longer?

PAUL COLLINS: I think it's quite clear at the present moment that the Pope is a very sick man. I was speaking to a friend of mine who is a journalist with many, many years experience in Rome, and he told me just on Friday that the Pope's health is very poor at the present moment.

What I think has happened is that a sudden decision has been taken to try to expand the College of Cardinals of those particularly under 80 who will elect the next Pope. They want to try to expand it geographically and they also want to make sure that a number of diocese that normally have cardinals under the age of 80 to elect the Pope, that they are represented.

And I think that this recent list of 31 cardinals has certainly geographically expanded the people, and it's made sure that a number of countries, like France and Spain, and to a lesser extent Italy, that were under-represented, are now represented quite thoroughly.

So I think that there is a realisation in Rome that Pope John Paul, I think his illness is certainly serious and they want to make sure they've got everything covered.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Now, given that we do have the list of those eligible to vote, what sort of Pope do you think we'll have next time round?

PAUL COLLINS: Well, of course cardinals are the Pope's men while the Pope is alive. He appoints them and so they very much see themselves as men closely tied to his agenda, exactly as Archbishop Pell said in the interview with Alison Caldwell.

But the reality is, once the Pope dies, they're their own men, and they will act according to their own consciences and these are men who are very conscientious men, and exactly as Cardinal Pell said, very hard-working men. So they're their own men and they'll make their own decisions.

What I think will happen, and you'll have to take that this is just my opinion, and I certainly emphasise that this is probably the most open conclave, the most open election process for a long time to come, for a long time from the past, but what I think will happen is that there will be a focus particularly on the Latin American cardinals and I'm even willing to put a little bit of money on two cardinals who I think are certainly likely to be front-runners, Cardinal Claudio Hummes, the Archbishop of Sao Paulo in Brazil, and Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, who is the Archbishop of Buenos Aires in Argentina.

I think they're two that will fit the kind of pattern that the cardinals will be looking for. Of course things, if the Pope…

ELIZABETH JACKSON: What is, sorry to interrupt you, but what is the pattern?

PAUL COLLINS: Well the pattern will tend to be they will be looking for men with a lot of pastoral experience and certainly these two men fit that bill.

They'll be looking for a man from about the age, I don't think they'll elect anyone under 65, I'd be surprised if they elected anyone over 75. So you'll be looking for someone in that age range of ten years between 65 and 75.

I think they will be looking for a moderately conservative person theologically, but - and this is the thing people often make a mistake about - people can be theologically conservative, but at the same time on social issues they can be quite open and progressive. Certainly the two that I mentioned would fit that bill perfectly.

So I think they're the type of thing, that's the type of kind of norms that the Cardinals will use to make their judgements.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: And ultimately, what will it mean for the direction of the Catholic Church if that scenario is fulfilled?

PAUL COLLINS: Well at the present moment I think there's a kind of uncertainty with the beginning of a new millennium and new century, a kind of uncertainly as to which way the Church would go.

I think the cardinals are still very much feeling their way as to what the future might hold. That's why they will elect, I think, a much older man this time, and perhaps a much more low-key man than Pope John Paul II because they'll want to suss out the way the century is going and what the important issues are going to be.

They've already, I think, picked a couple of them, one of which will be very much an opposition to war and to pre-emptive war, and the other will be dialogue with the great faiths of the world, particularly the Muslims.

So I think that, but at the same time there is still uncertainty as to what the major issues are facing the world and the Church and so I think they'll go for someone fairly cautious, fairly middle of the road.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Dr Paul Collins, many thanks.

PAUL COLLINS: A pleasure Elizabeth.

Well - I don't know about how history will view this Pope, but George Pell is certainly just about the worst thing that's happened to the Catholic Church in Sydney.

He's certainly opened up old wounds, and we're looking at a split in the church because of his reactionary views.

But...we knew what to expect - he'd done the same thing in Melbourne. He follows the Vatican line - also outdated!

i think this pope will be remembered for his opposition to communism and attempts at reconciliation with the jews.

the next pope really needs to come from latin america. preferably brazil because i believe it has the largest catholic population in the world.

Johannes Paulus II.
Great diplomat.
Not as good in keeping the church with the times (and the faithful in the church)

If the next Pope is to be Latin American, I sincerely hope he's not a Mexican.

The Austrian pre-candidate at least has the looks of a good man. Or the Archbishop of Milan. Italians are often good politicians.