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Who broke the cease fire? Rockets graphed

 
 
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 02:57 pm


http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bvs&chs=800x320&chd=t:149,84,0,0,0,0,0,0|0,3,8,3,3,1,0,0|0,0,0,0,0,0,68,52&chco=4d89f9,c6d9fd,336699&chbh=a&chds=0,150&chm=N*f0*,333333,0,0:1,10|N*f0*,333333,1,1:6,10|N*f0*,333333,2,6:8,10&chl=May|Jun|Jul|Aug|Sep|Oct|Nov|Dec&chtt=Rocket+Fire+on+Southern+Israel+2008|Source:+Intelligence+and+Terrorism+Center,+Israel&chdl=Before+ceasefire+(June+18+2008)|During+ceasefire|After+November+4+attack
 
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 03:15 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Extremely interesting indeed.
0 Replies
 
Zippo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 03:23 pm
Israel only wants "peace" .... a piece of someone else's land.
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 04:11 pm
I can't view the video right now. Which was the November 4 attack that the graph is referring to?
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 04:18 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Well, if "cease-fire" means that both sides should cease their fire, then your graph makes it pretty clear who broke the cease-fire: the Palestinians. Indeed, your graph suggests that the Palestinians broke the cease-fire shortly after it took effect back in June. Am I missing something?
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 04:23 pm
@InfraBlue,
InfraBlue wrote:

Which was the November 4 attack that the graph is referring to?

Six members of Hamas's military wing were killed by Israeli ground forces that day.
Many US media seem to have ignored this attack.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 04:25 pm
@joefromchicago,
You are missing that even Israel admits that those rockets were not fired by Hamas. They stopped all the rocket fire that they were able to control.

Furthermore, the current Gaza operation has been in planning ever since the beginning of the cease fire. Claiming it is a response to the rockets and aimed at stopping it is disingenuous. Statistically, it seems honoring their side of the cease fire would be a more effective tactic than invasion.
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 04:31 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:

You are missing that even Israel admits that those rockets were not fired by Hamas. They stopped all the rocket fire that they were able to control.

Well, if I were Hamas, I'd say the same thing too.

Robert Gentel wrote:
Furthermore, the current Gaza operation has been in planning ever since the beginning of the cease fire. Claiming it is a response to the rockets and aimed at stopping it is disingenuous. Statistically, it seems honoring their side of the cease fire would be a more effective tactic than invasion.

That may very well be true, but then that's a different issue.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 04:49 pm
@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:
Well, if I were Hamas, I'd say the same thing too.


What's your point? Are you disputing the claim or not? Israel said the same thing.
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 05:18 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
What's your point? Are you disputing the claim or not? Israel said the same thing.

It did?

"Hamas broke this cease-fire," Olmert said.

Besides, upon further review, your graph suggests that the cease-fire was breached on Nov. 4. That's what Hamas would say, because that's when Israeli forces killed six Hamas members inside Gaza -- an incident which was then followed by dozens of rocket and mortar attacks launched by Hamas. The graph, therefore, already presupposes that Israel breached the cease-fire first, so it simply begs the question. In effect, it asks: "who breached the cease-fire that was breached by the Israelis?"
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 05:39 pm
Joe, you are being intentionally obtuse.

Who was responsible for reducing the number of rocket attacks from 149 in may, to 8 in July (and then reduced it even further in the next couple of months)?

There was only one rocket in October... and quite possibly could have been zero in November (had the trend continued). Unfortunately someone decided to stop this trend.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 05:50 pm
@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:


The claim we were speaking of was whether those rockets were fired by Hamas Joe. In the video I posted an Israeli spokesman says it's correct that Hamas did not fire them.

As to who broke the cease fire, my personal opinion is that neither side ever complied with it in full, but the portrayal of the events has been pretty simplistic and one-sided about the details.

Quote:
The graph, therefore, already presupposes that Israel breached the cease-fire first, so it simply begs the question. In effect, it asks: "who breached the cease-fire that was breached by the Israelis?"


Neither side completely complied with the terms of the ceasefire from the very beginning. Israel didn't open up their economic blockade and the rocket fire did not completely stop.
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 05:58 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:

joefromchicago wrote:


The claim we were speaking of was whether those rockets were fired by Hamas Joe. In the video I posted an Israeli spokesman says it's correct that Hamas did not fire them.

And in the news item I linked, Ehud Olmert, the prime minister of Israel, said that Hamas broke the cease-fire.

Now, the question is: are they talking about the same rockets. I can't really make out what the spokesman is saying in the video, since my computer's speakers aren't very good. But if he's saying that the rockets fired into Israel after Nov. 4, 2008 were not fired by Hamas, then he's contradicting what Olmert said. And when it comes down to a question of who speaks for the Israeli government, I'll take the prime minister over some press secretary.

Robert Gentel wrote:
As to who broke the cease fire, my personal opinion is that neither side ever complied with it in full, but the portrayal of the events has been pretty simplistic and one-sided about the details.

Quite possibly. But then I don't think your graph does a very good job of clearing up the confusion.

Robert Gentel wrote:
Neither side completely complied with the terms of the ceasefire from the very beginning. Israel didn't open up their economic blockade and the rocket fire did not completely stop.

I think that's a fair statement.
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 06:02 pm
@ebrown p,
ebrown p wrote:

Joe, you are being intentionally obtuse.

Yeah, I've been getting that a lot lately. I suppose it's better than being unintentionally obtuse.

ebrown p wrote:
Who was responsible for reducing the number of rocket attacks from 149 in may, to 8 in July (and then reduced it even further in the next couple of months)?

I imagine that it was Hamas. But then if the agreement said that there would be zero rocket attacks, reducing them to eight still means that they failed to uphold their end of the agreement.

ebrown p wrote:
There was only one rocket in October... and quite possibly could have been zero in November (had the trend continued). Unfortunately someone decided to stop this trend.

Indeed.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 06:11 pm
@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:
Now, the question is: are they talking about the same rockets. I can't really make out what the spokesman is saying in the video, since my computer's speakers aren't very good. But if he's saying that the rockets fired into Israel after Nov. 4, 2008 were not fired by Hamas, then he's contradicting what Olmert said.


No, he's talking about prior to Nov 4th not being fired by Hamas. So now that we've hopefully gotten every possible red herring you can use out of the way, is that something you dispute?
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 07:06 pm
@Robert Gentel,
I have no clue.

Does your graph show who broke the cease-fire?
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 08:41 pm
@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:
I have no clue.


I suspected you really didn't have a point (or even a position on the matter) with that comment.

Quote:
Does your graph show who broke the cease-fire?


No, but I do think it illustrates that a simplistic claim that Hamas broke the cease fire (which is the predominant narrative I see in the media) lacks nuance and detail.
joefromchicago
 
  2  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 09:03 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
Quote:
Does your graph show who broke the cease-fire?


No

Well then, now we've eliminated all of the red herrings.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 09:15 pm
@joefromchicago,
I'd said that neither side fully complied with the terms earlier in our discussion. I've also never claimed that this graph answers that question, so you've eliminated another red herring of your own creation. And I, having more faith in your capability for red herrings than you, am not as confident that you are fresh out of them.
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2009 09:44 pm
@Robert Gentel,
You start a thread called "Who broke the cease fire? Rockets graphed" and then post a graph that doesn't say who broke the cease fire. That, my prickly young friend, is the definition of a red herring.
 

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