0
   

Observers sense 'something fishy' in Alaska vote

 
 
Reply Fri 7 Nov, 2008 02:32 pm
by David Edwards and Muriel Kane
Published: Friday November 7, 2008

The 2008 presidential race is over, but several Senate races still remain undecided. Georgia is headed for a runoff, Minnesota for a recount -- and in Alaska things just keep getting stranger.

"It looks like senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens and Congressman-currently-under-investigation Don Young will both hold onto their seats," MSNBC's Rachel Maddow noted on Thursday. "That said, there's a case to be made that there's something fishy going on up there."

Even though the polls this year have generally been pretty accurate, they were way off in Alaska. Stevens was running between 7% and 22% behind his Democratic challenger in the polls, but now he is narrowly ahead in the vote count

Polling analysis website 538.com comments, "The emerging conventional wisdom is that there was some sort of a Bradley Effect in this contest -- voters told pollsters that they weren't about to vote for that rascal Ted Stevens, when in fact they were perfectly happy to. Convicted felons are the new black, it would seem. The problem with this theory is that the polling failures in Alaska weren't unique to Stevens."

The polls also consistently showed Rep. Young as losing by at least 6%, but he is currently ahead in the vote count by 8%. Even in the presidential race, where polls showed McCain leading by 14% or less, the vote count has him winning by 61% to 35% -- precisely the same margin as George Bush in 2004. That represents a polling error of at least 11% to 14% in all three races.

At the same time, total voter turnout appears to be about 11% lower in Alaska this year than in 2004 -- despite over 20,000 new registrations, heavy turnout in the primaries, record early voting, long lines at the polls on Election Day, and the state's own governor being on the ballot, all of which had led to an expectation of record participation.

Maddow turned for explanations to Nate Silver of 538.com, who pointed out that tens of thousands of absentee ballots, early votes, and provisional votes are yet to be counted. However, these appear to be spread fairly evenly across the state, not concentrated in Democratic areas, so even a final tally is unlikely to jibe with the polls. "Clearly it didn't go how the pollsters expected," Silver commented.

The Washington Post reports that pollsters themselves are "not happy" about the results. "Anchorage pollster and Republican political consultant David Dittman, a Stevens supporter, predicted a 'solid Begich win' The national polling firm, Rasmussen Reports, accurately predicted every Senate race in the country within the margin of error in their most recent polls -- except Alaska. Alaska pollsters Ivan Moore, Craciun Research Group and Hays Research Group all also had Stevens and Young trailing in the lead-up to the election."

"Is there any place ... where you are worried about the potential for shenanigans?" Maddow asked Silver as the segment concluded. "Should the parties be lawyering up?"

Silver answered that he isn't concerned about Minnesota, but Alaska and Georgia "are two states where you definitely have a high threat level for voter fraud."


This video is from MSNBC's The Rachel Maddow Show, broadcast November 6, 2008.
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Nate_Silver_Lawyers_should_review_Alaska_1107.html
  • Topic Stats
  • Top Replies
  • Link to this Topic
Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 1,884 • Replies: 15
No top replies

 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Nov, 2008 03:30 pm
I read about this elsewhere. Have they already ruled out bad weather playing a part?
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Nov, 2008 04:14 pm
@FreeDuck,
I dont think they've ruled anything out yet.
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Nov, 2008 09:03 pm
Alaska Update: Thousands of Ballots 'Found', One-Third Remain Uncounted in the State's Still-Fishy '08 Election
This just in from Alaska, where thousands of new ballots continue to be found each day, since it was first reported that turnout in 2008 was 11% lower than in 2004. Thousands of ballots, nearly a third of them, remain uncounted nearly a week after the election. Their numbers could explain the strange results so far in races --- such as those of the felonious Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and the under-investigation Rep. Don Young (R) --- for which pollsters had predicted decisive losses for the Republicans.

Even with the newly acknowledged ballots and even with Alaska's once-popular Gov. Sarah Palin and popular Sen. Barack Obama both on the Presidential ballot this year, turnout numbers still remain slightly below those from 2004. The Anchorage Daily News, with numbers somewhat out of date from those now posted below, called it all "puzzling" over the weekend, and pointed out much of what we've detailed here in previous posts.

The following updated numbers come from the DNC's Alaska Communications Director, Kay Brown late this afternoon [emphasis in the original]...


New totals for ballots were posted today at:
http://www.elections.ala...rly_question_numbers.pdf

The Division of Elections reports there are now 90,635 ballots remaining to be counted. This means nearly 29 percent (28.8%) of the total vote has not been counted yet.

With these new numbers the total vote is at 314,268, with turnout at 63.3% (registered voters = 495,731).

The new ballots posted today include about 4,000 additional Questioned ballots about 5,600 additional Absentees.

The Division of Elections (DOE) plans to count the majority of early vote and absentee ballots that were verified by Election Day on Wednesday. The DOE Plans to count the remaining ballots on Friday (but this is all obviously subject to change). However, there could be enough ballots left after Wednesdays count for the race to still go either way.

All overseas ballots have to be received by Wednesday, November 19th and the DOE plans to certify the election on Tuesday, November 25. A recount, should one be necessary, would occur after that. An automatic recount is only implemented if the final votes are within 0.5 percent.

Total turnout in 2004 was 314,502 with these new ballots posted today we are still slightly under the number who voted in 2004. Turnout in the 2004 General was 66.6%, with 314,502 voting and 472,160 registered voters statewide.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6654
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Nov, 2008 09:30 pm
@blueflame1,
State Division of elections news release says they expect to count about 50,000 ballots on Wed Nov 12th. They are supposed to have all of them counted by Nov 19.
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Nov, 2008 07:18 pm
Okbermann and MSNBC now reporting Begich has taken a 3 vote lead. Still counting 10,000 votes today and Friday over 20,000 more.
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 06:39 am
AK-Sen: Begich takes a "big" lead
by kos
Wed Nov 12, 2008 at 09:25:06 PM PST
Hey, it's all relative.

Stevens (R) 131,382
Begich (D) 132,196

That's a Begich lead of 814 votes. A landslide!

This brings the total number of votes counted today to roughly 53,000, which is what they were supposed to get to today. So this should be the final count for the evening.

There are still another 38,000 or so ballots left to be counted, but those are from Begich-friendly districts. Begich will win this race.

The question is whether there will be a recount. The trigger is half a percent. The margin is currently 0.29 percent. The rest of the ballots will likely push this thing out past the recount window.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 08:50 am
@blueflame1,
Ain't that something?

I'd given up on both the Stevens/ Begich and the Coleman/ Franken races -- but looks like it's possible that the Dem will prevail in both. (And then we're at 59 senators after all, and Lieberman becomes more important again...)
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 09:11 am
@sozobe,
I thought Lieberman and Sanders were both included in the 59, no?
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 09:12 am
@JPB,
I don't think so... I think it's currently 57 Dem senators (with MN and AK undecided). Let me look that up though.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 09:15 am
@sozobe,
I think you're right, CNN's 57 has an asterisk and "includes 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats:"

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/main.results/#S

The GA one is also still in question, so there's still some possibility of getting to 60, but Chambliss seems to have a better chance than Coleman or Stevens.

But still a possibility...
0 Replies
 
cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 09:21 am
If the R's lose any filibuster capability the system of checks and balances is out the window, and it's really, really time to lock and load.
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 09:45 am
@cjhsa,
We're so scairt.
cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 10:23 am
@blueflame1,
You should be.
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Nov, 2008 10:35 am
@cjhsa,
Right. Sore losers can get really sore. I know. I was 16 when JFK got his brains blown out. I wasn't kidding. We're so scared. Stupid is particularely scary.
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2008 07:38 pm
AK-Sen: Begich's lead increases
by kos
Fri Nov 14, 2008 at 05:00:34 PM PST
1,061.

Stevens (R) 136,466
Begich (D) 137,527

That's another 10,000 counted, leaving roughly 28,000 or so ballots left, most from Begich-friendly districts.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

Join Us Here Tuesday Night! - Discussion by realjohnboy
Let's get rid of the Electoral College - Discussion by Robert Gentel
Be Careful What You Wish For - Discussion by cjhsa
'too close to call' - Discussion by H2O MAN
A Question of Barack Obama's Character - Discussion by McGentrix
I Am Sick of This Election - Discussion by Phoenix32890
Obama Sign CCTV - Discussion by Walter Hinteler
The Presidential Debates! - Discussion by sozobe
I'm Watching Palin On ABC - Discussion by Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1. Forums
  2. » Observers sense 'something fishy' in Alaska vote
Copyright © 2023 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.03 seconds on 01/30/2023 at 10:35:39