50
   

Join Us Here Tuesday Night!

 
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 12:24 pm
@H2O MAN,
Quote:
Obama loses.


Which state?
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 12:57 pm
@joefromchicago,
Sen Obama (361) - Sen McCain (171).
Obama takes, from among the tossup states, Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, New Mexico, Florida and either North Dakota or Montana.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 02:53 pm
http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/treasures/images/at0069_4s.jpg
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 04:25 pm
@edgarblythe,
Did any of yall catch the story on NPR's Weekend Edition this morning re polling? They talked to a guy who knows the polling racket.
The 1st thing to watch is who was polled. Eligible voters, registered voters, likely voters. The last is probably the most significant.
Then, there should be this disclosure, but there usually is not unless you go searching: The poll is based on a sample of xxxx (likely voters etc). We are yy% sure that the outcome will be candidate A will win over B by a margin of z%. A whole lot of variables as our friend Nimh, who knows about all of this, has talked about on other threads.

Dewey over Truman. A headline based on a bad poll. Dewey "won" based on a telephone poll conducted before the paper went to press. But many Truman supporters did not have telephone service at the time.

An amusing similarity this time around. Many young people no longer have land lines. Only cell phones. They can not be polled. The folks in that racket claim that they have made adjustments to account for that. We shall see.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 05:07 pm
@edgarblythe,
I guess this one will also go down in history as a collector's item; either as the first to announce our new president or the second to get suckered in by early polling:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/27/obama-wins-newspaper-declares/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/28/art.winner.cnn.jpg
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 05:12 pm
@Butrflynet,
I fear Obama supporters will consider the race over and many fail to vote. There is no winner til the finish line gets crossed.
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 05:47 pm
@edgarblythe,
There are a lot of people who don't trust the polls or the attempts to disenfranchise voters; and even more people who just want to be a part of history in the making.

I think the long waiting lines and malfunctioning equipment at voting locations will be more of a hindrance than anyone's failure to make the attempt.

There will be people with video cameras in many locations so we should get a pretty good record of what exactly is happening.

0 Replies
 
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 05:56 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

Sen Obama (361) - Sen McCain (171).

You're missing six electoral votes. The total should be 538.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 06:04 pm
@joefromchicago,
I am. Thank you.
0 Replies
 
Merry Andrew
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 06:04 pm
@edgarblythe,
I can just visualize another year 2000 scenario. It may be Christmas or later before we know for sure who actually won. Just pray that the Supreme Court doesn't need to get involved this time. It looks pretty good for Obama as far as the popular vote goes, providing every state's electoral process is aboveboard. But there are so many 'ifs' and 'what ifs' that nothing is a sure thing at this point.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Nov, 2008 06:07 pm
@realjohnboy,
I meant to say: Sen Obama 367 - Sen McCain 171
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2008 04:59 pm
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:

Nice graph of poll closing times:

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/1029/map590bm5.gif
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2008 05:11 pm
I post that again. VA, GA, SC and FL close early. The 1st 3 should have results in pretty quickly (unless there are long lines waiting to vote at 7 pm).
At last check, VA is going for Obama by 6%, Ga going for McCain by 3% and SC going for McCain by 10%. Watching how those 3 states go could give an indication of how long we will have to stay up on Tuesday night.
Question? Early voting and absentee voting will be a big factor this year. Do yall know when those votes will be reported? At the beginning, or at the end?
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2008 05:32 pm
BBC World says that over 20,000,000 Americans have already voted.
That's pretty dang wonderful.
Merry Andrew
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2008 05:37 pm
@ehBeth,
OK, that's good. But, as realjohnboy has already asked, when will we know the results? When are those votes counted? Or have they been counted already? Is this going to be another "hanging chad" cliff-hanger?
joefromchicago
 
  2  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2008 09:52 pm
@Merry Andrew,
Merry Andrew wrote:

OK, that's good. But, as realjohnboy has already asked, when will we know the results? When are those votes counted? Or have they been counted already? Is this going to be another "hanging chad" cliff-hanger?

Absentee and early ballots are delivered to the precincts: they're counted along with all of the rest of the ballots cast on election day, so there should be no delays.

For a rundown of what races to watch: An Observer's Guide to Election Night.
0 Replies
 
Ragman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 12:34 am
@realjohnboy,
Here are my predictions:

Popular vote
Obama about 2.5% - 3.5%

Electoral vote
Obama 300-330
jespah
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 05:30 am
@realjohnboy,
Yes, but what are the opening times? I'm totally serious; I want to vote before work starts tomorrow.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 05:37 am
For the first time since the election campaigning began, I will predict Obama will win. Practically too late for any late moment surprises.
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:23 am
@edgarblythe,
I was playing with the CNN map and I have a new possibility.

It is completely possible for Obama to get 400 electoral votes (assuming he wins Florida).

Let me be the first to say so.
 

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