The Monty Hall Paradox

Maybe this is an example that shows the logic better.

Let's say you have a cloth sack with 3 identical size marbles in it.

One of the marbles has a small notch in it...Monty's Marble. Monty's marble and one of the smooth ones is blue, the 3rd is red.

You reach into the sack, grabbing the first marble you feel.

If it's Monty's marble, you leave it alone.

You pick a smooth one, then pick the other smooth one.

If you keep doing this, rejecting Monty's marble when you get it, picking a smooth one, then swapping with the other smooth, you'll end up picking the red more often.

Note....you are ALWAYS picking amongst 3 marbles, not 2.

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parados wrote:

Well Spendi.. if you aren't that dumb than you must be that drunk because the math works out to 1 in 3 for choosing correctly in the first round.

I'm so glad you said that parados.

I have very little tolerance for people saying stupid things when they are drunk (as one who as tippled more than her fair share, I know drunks rely on the kindness of strangers to forgive what they say when in their cups...I don't fall for it)

You made me realize I'm trying to speak rationally to someone who in his state would deny seeing an elephant if it sat on him, just to be stubborn.

This reminds me of trying to explain to someone that the new milenium started Jan 1, 2001, not 2000.

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HJE, CHAI WHAZZUP?

LOOKin gpood.

jeus, jesus.... i can bareluy fokin type

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parados wrote-

Quote:

Hey, Spendi> Let's play a game. I will deal three cards and you try to pick the Ace of Spades. After you choose I will turn over one card that isn't the Ace of spades but then you have to keep your card. I will even pay you 6-5 odds. How much do you think you will win? Since there are only 2 cards left at the ends your odds would be 50/50, wouldn't they? So keeping your card you should rake in the money at 6-5 odds in your favor. C'mon, let's play. How much money do you have?

That's not the same game. I have to keep my card you said. In Monte's game I can switch and it was alleged that a switcher had an advantage over a non-switcher. That's what I was disputing and I played the game on the link 20 times and it confirmed my position.

How do you know which card is not an ace. If I have to keep my card I should be getting 2 to 1. Monte's contestant could switch.

You might have offered 15 to 8. Did you work for Enron?

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spendius wrote:

That's not the same game. I have to keep my card you said. In Monte's game I can switch and it was alleged that a switcher had an advantage over a non-switcher. That's what I was disputing and I played the game on the link 20 times and it confirmed my position.

Err, no it didn't. To prove your position, do it 20 times and switch every time. Then do it 20 times and hold every time. If you get the same or very close results for each trial then that buoys your position. If you do better switching... well, I'll leave that to you.

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Chai wrote-

Quote:

This reminds me of trying to explain to someone that the new milenium started Jan 1, 2001, not 2000.

Everybody knows it started in 2000 AD. There were firework displays all around the world to prove it. And only itsy-bitsy little local ones in 2001.

I hope shouting at the telly telling them all they were stupid increased your enjoyment of the event. I was as pissed as a fart swinging around the pub with a slapper in skimpy kit. They should have one every week.

It must be really boring being a scientist.

We know that the human race is stupid and let us all pray that it will forever remain so.

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spendius wrote:

parados wrote-

Quote:
Hey, Spendi> Let's play a game. I will deal three cards and you try to pick the Ace of Spades. After you choose I will turn over one card that isn't the Ace of spades but then you have to keep your card. I will even pay you 6-5 odds. How much do you think you will win? Since there are only 2 cards left at the ends your odds would be 50/50, wouldn't they? So keeping your card you should rake in the money at 6-5 odds in your favor. C'mon, let's play. How much money do you have?

That's not the same game. I have to keep my card you said. In Monte's game I can switch and it was alleged that a switcher had an advantage over a non-switcher. That's what I was disputing and I played the game on the link 20 times and it confirmed my position.

How do you know which card is not an ace. If I have to keep my card I should be getting 2 to 1. Monte's contestant could switch.

You might have offered 15 to 8. Did you work for Enron?

It is exactly the same game if you claim there is NO advantage in switching.. If the ability to switch gives you 50/50 odds then not switching would give you 50/50 odds if I simply reveal a card you didn't take which is not the ace.

Is there an advantage in switching? Yes or no? If there is no advantage in switching then making you keep the card while revealing the other one would still result in 50/50 odds that you claim exist.

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No advantage in switching.

If I can switch cards I'll play at 6/5. How much money have you?

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It is not the ability to switch that matters so much as that when the bet is placed there are only two choices. The turned over card might as well be at the bottom of a deep pit at that point.

If I'm stuck with my choice I want 9 to 4. Or even 19 to 8.

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Foxfyre wrote:

Sorry, a guess is a guess is a guess.

Let's try this again (nobody seems to be listening to me).

If you had 100 doors and picked one at random, and then Monty eliminated 98 doors with goats behind them (because he's ONLY allowed to eliminate goat doors) so that there were only two doors left... would you switch your choice?

Ask yourself why you would switch. The answer to that question is the same as the answer to your original question.

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spendius wrote:

No advantage in switching.

If I can switch cards I'll play at 6/5. How much money have you?

If there is no advantage in switching then why won't you play without switching?

You can't have it both ways Spendi. Either there is an advantage in switching or there isn't. It seems you realize there is an advantage but refuse to admit it.

I tell you what Spendi...
You can place the bet after I reveal a card. Will that make it OK?
You pick a card, I reveal one that isn't the Ace of Spades. Then you bet 6/5 that the card you picked is the Ace.

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spendius wrote:

Chai wrote-

I hope shouting at the telly telling them all they were stupid increased your enjoyment of the event. I was as pissed as a fart swinging around the pub with a slapper in skimpy kit. They should have one every week.

It must be really boring being a scientist.

We know that the human race is stupid and let us all pray that it will forever remain so.

I rarely shout, and never at the televison. Don't watch much TV anywho.

I was sound asleep for hours already when midnight came, I don't get enjoyment from listening to a bunch of drunks.

Being "pissed as a far" is not something to be proud of.

I don't know if it's boring to be a scientist I wouldn't think so, but being drunk sure is boring, and so is listening to you.

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parados wrote-

Quote:

I tell you what Spendi...
You can place the bet after I reveal a card. Will that make it OK?
You pick a card, I reveal one that isn't the Ace of Spades. Then you bet 6/5 that the card you picked is the Ace.

Do you train monkeys mate?

I'm not betting a 2 to 1 chance at 6 to 5. Do you think I'm a philanthropist?

You want the young ones for that.

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At least we know Spendi's vices don't include gambling.

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I think Spendi is a bored priest.

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gustavratzenhofer wrote:

HJE, CHAI WHAZZUP?

LOOKin gpood.

jeus, jesus.... i can bareluy fokin type

Tell me the truth gus.

Are you primotivo?

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So, did Foxfyre figure out Monty Python's Flying Paradox? Or was it the Full Monty Paradox?

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It's not a paradox---its logic supplanting intuition---kinda like Monty Python's stance on camouflage--camouflage is ineffective if your position is already known. You get the full Monty regardless of how well you're hidden.

Rap

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I'm imagining a whole new kind of game to test the theory. Behind one of these doors is the Full Monty. Or a goat.

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FreeDuck wrote:

I'm imagining a whole new kind of game to test the theory. Behind one of these doors is the Full Monty. Or a goat.

Or a goat in full monty. Shocked

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The Monty Hall Paradox

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