Spanish elections

A victory for moderation

Tuesday, 11 March 2008


For once the opinion polls got it right. Despite a bout of last-minute nerves, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and his Socialist party have gained a second term with a slightly increased representation in the Spanish parliament, although still just short of an absolute majority. That must be good for Spain. Although the government of Mr Zapatero has pushed bravely on with policies of social concern and secular liberalism, most notably on gay marriage, there was always the charge that they had somehow gained power by accident because of the peculiar circumstances of the 2004 Madrid bombings in which the last election had been held. If the government was to proceed with its policies then it needed the authority of a popular mandate.


It was a bitter and often nasty campaign in which the right of the Popular Party exploited every issue, from immigration to marriage, to attack the prime minister. It failed to get its man. In two other ways, as well, Spain's election is of clear benefit to the country. One is in its dealings with Europe. Although Mr Zapatero was quick to fulfil his promise of withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq, on more general foreign policy, and particularly in his dealings with Europe, he has had been notably less forthcoming. With a clear mandate and four years in office, Spain can now play a more active role in the EU at a time when French, German and British leadership are all faltering on the issue. At the same time, the election marked a clear and possibly decisive vote in favour of the moderate nationalist parties at the expense of the extremes. Against all the fears of those who were predicting an imminent break-up of the country, voters in the Basque country and Catalonia voted for parties committed to working within the system - a lesson for other European countries, including Britain. At this stage Mr Zapatero is unlikely to seek a coalition with any of the smaller parties, preferring to seek support on an ad hoc basis. But he is likely to work with the mainstream nationalists, meaning moderation will be rewarded. Yet there is need for caution in applauding Zapatero's victory.

The result still leaves Spain a sharply divided country. If the Socialists gained five seats, so did the Popular Party. Both improved their share of the vote. Immigration remains a fraught issue. The bishops may be down but they are still far from out and the Madrid government is facing an economic downturn.

Mr Zapatero spoke yesterday of inaugurating a new era in Spanish politics and seeking national unity after the divisiveness of the campaign. These are fine intentions, but, with a recession in the offing and a fiercely divided electorate, fulfilling them may not prove such a straightforward task.

The Guardian:
Zapatero seeks alliances to wield power after divisive Spanish poll

Paul Hamilos in Madrid
Tuesday March 11 2008

The Spanish prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, vowed to tackle the economy and social reform yesterday as he sought the backing of regional parties to form a government.

The prime minister's Socialist party fell seven seats short of the absolute majority of 176 in the lower house of parliament in Sunday's election and must try to form alliances with one or more of the smaller parties. The conservative opposition Popular party, headed by Mariano Rajoy, won 153 seats.

At his first press conference after a divisive election, Zapatero said: "This legislature must have as its principal aims new drives in the economy, employment and social policies, and the method will be dialogue and social agreements."

Rather than being a permanent alliance, the new government is likely to consist of adhoc alliances on individual policies. Zapatero did not rule out a pact with the moderate Catalan nationalist party, Convergencia i Unio, which won 11 seats - enough to take the government past the magic number of 176. The Basque Nationalists, with six seats, have also offered support.

Charles Powell, a history professor at San Pablo-CEU University in Madrid, said that 169 seats was "a very comfortable victory. With a 75% turnout and a 43% slice of the vote, the government can rightly argue that it has a strong mandate".

The murder last Friday of Isaias Carrasco, a former socialist town councillor, was blamed on Basque separatists Eta, and served as a bloody reminder that their 40-year-long violent campaign continues. Zapatero was criticised over the failure of peace talks with Eta in his first term, and it is unclear whether he will return to the negotiating table.

But the most important problem facing Zapatero is the downturn in Spain's economy. After a decade of spectacular growth, unemployment is rising, inflation is twice the EU average, and a crisis has hit the vital construction industry.

The government says its record budget surplus will allow it to fund a public works programme and stimulate growth. But many analysts say this is a sticking-plaster approach, and investment in research, development and education is vital.

Zapatero has pledged to push on with the liberal social policies that earned him a reputation as a "secular reformer" in his first term, during which he clashed with the Catholic church's hierarchy over several policies. With the rightwing Antonio María Rouco Varela recently reappointed as president of the Spanish bishops' council, many fear these clashes will continue.

A Spanish friend says the biggest news in this election is that PSOE gathered more votes than PNV in the Basque country.
He says it's a sign that Basques are beginning to get fed up with their Nationalist politicians.

fbaezer wrote:

A Spanish friend says the biggest news in this election is that PSOE gathered more votes than PNV in the Basque country.
He says it's a sign that Basques are beginning to get fed up with their Nationalist politicians.

Hi F, is your friend Basque or Galician*? I only ask because I'm wondering if the native attitudes are changing or whether internal migration is changing the demographic make up of those states.

* or Catalonian?

He's Andalusian.

fbaezer wrote:

He's Andalusian.

But he is not a dog, is he?