Oz election thread #3 - Rudd's Labour

Who cares?

Mr Abbott said after a day of discussions with Mr Hockey, who is in favour of a free vote on the emissions trading scheme (ETS), he had decided to challenge no matter who stands.

Mr Hockey has indicated that if he wins the leadership, the Liberals would have a free vote on the ETS in both houses of parliament.

Such a move would likely give the Government the votes it needs for the ETS legislation to pass.

Mr Abbott, who is against the ETS and also opposes the idea of a free vote, had previously said he would stand aside if Mr Hockey contested the leadership.

But he says his position has changed because Mr Hockey will not adopt a hard line on the ETS ... Cont>

There’s an outside chance Turnbull will stand aside, but don’t bet on it. The Liberals have nothing Turnbull wants except the leadership. He won’t have any interest in being Hockey’s foreign affairs minister.

And in that case, Hockey will win the ballot comfortably, bringing Malcolm Turnbull’s tumultuous period as leader to an end.

But he will get no honeymoon. There will be a bounce in the polls for the Coalition, but Hockey enters his leadership as damaged goods " and not because he breached his commitment to his leader.

Hockey will be exactly what Nick Greiner and Malcolm Turnbull said yesterday " a puppet of Nick Minchin and the party’s conservatives. Hockey lacks the intellectual heft and political nous to be anything but a figurehead in what will assuredly be a Minchin Regency.

But it’s more than that. Minchin and the party’s conservative wing have sent a powerful signal. While accusing Turnbull of wrecking the party, they themselves have demonstrated that they will inflict any amount of damage on the party, its leader and its brand if they don’t like a decision. They lost the debate last week, refused to accept the result, tried to move a spill, lost that too, then resorted to mass resignations to get their way.

Malcolm Turnbull has been lashed for hitting back hard at them yesterday but he’s a model of decorum compared to a number of rightwingers in the party. These are men and women who plainly think the rules only apply when it’s convenient for them.

Hockey will not be their leader, he will be their hostage. Anything statement short of a repeat of Hockey’s statements last week that the CPRS will be passed will be like one of those dreadful hostage videos, in which captives are forced to say whatever those holding them insist on. Hockey may as well be holding up a newspaper.

The only catch is that Hockey himself may not make it to the election, to the dismay of his captors. He is undoubtedly popular with punters, much more so than Abbott. But his indiscipline, his inability to master a detailed brief, his tendency to resort to bullying when he doesn’t like what someone says, all will be the object of a concerted attack from the Labor machine over the next twelve months, starting the very day he gets the leadership.

While he’s not the goose that Alexander Downer was in 1994, the possibility of a Downer-style flame-out can’t be ignored. That would leave the party to turn to Abbott, which is what Minchin and the conservatives may want in the long term, but it would also leave them a laughing-stock. Well, more so than they currently are.

Turnbull has alienated friend and foe alike with his arrogance, high-handedness and inability to engage constructively and consultatively with his backbench. But he’s a genuine leader, committed to taking the Liberal Party forward and making it competitive. Hockey will lead them to a disaster far worse than Turnbull would have managed.

What do you think? The chunky fellow or Mr Abbott?

Mr Hockey was knocked out in the first round of voting when he got 23 votes to Mr Turnbull's 26 and Mr Abbott's 35.

Julie Bishop will stay on as deputy leader, after being unopposed for her position.

Chief party whip Alex Somlyay says confirmation of Mr Abbott's win was met by the party room with a "loud round of applause".

Only 83 votes were counted in the final vote because somebody voted informally.

Fronting the media after the vote, Mr Turnbull said he he would not be resigning and there would be no by-election in Wentworth.

He said he had not decided whether to contest the next election but said he would not be returning to the frontbench.

A smiling Mr Turnbull congratulated Mr Abbott on his win.

"He has a big challenge ahead of him and I think all Australians wish him well with it," he said.

Mr Turnbull said he would not change anything he had done in the last month, but was disappointed by the result.

Mr Abbott will hold a press conference shortly. ...<cont>

.. I think they've just lost a a lot of women's votes.

Newly-elected Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says the Liberal Party has been liberated from the Government's emissions trading scheme (ETS).

Mr Abbott made the declaration as the Senate moved closer to a vote on the legislation, having dealt with more than 150 amendments to the scheme which is now facing defeat.

The ABC understands a vote is likely to be held on Wednesday morning.

The Upper House is expected to reject the climate legislation after Mr Abbott assumed the Liberal leadership by defeating Malcolm Turnbull 42 votes to 41 in a spill this morning.

Following his narrow victory, Mr Abbott immediately committed his party to a head-on confrontation with the Rudd Government over climate change.

He announced the Coalition would either refer the ETS to a committee or vote it down this week - a move that would hand Prime Minister Kevin Rudd the trigger he needs for a double-dissolution poll.

The legislation is headed for defeat and Mr Abbott says he is ready to fight the Government on climate change.

He told ABC1's The 7:30 Report he hopes to have a substantial climate policy finalised early in the new year.

"We're now moving forward, looking forward to fighting a great big new tax," he said.

"But the Liberal Party is liberated as of today.

"This isn't about climate change, it's about the mechanism for dealing with it. It's about stopping a great big new tax." ...<cont>