Turkey: Iran and China more popular than US, EU

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In a chapter called "Growing Isolation of Turkey", a new survey on Transatlantic Trends by the US-based German Marshall Fund (GMF) ranks the popularity of other countries and entities in Turkey on a 100 point "thermometer scale".

Iran comes in at 30 "degrees"; China at 28; the EU at 26; Russia at 21 ... and the US at 11.

NOTE: This was before the whole kerfluffle about the Congressional resolution denouncing the Armenian genocide.

The US rating is down from 20 degrees last year and 28 degrees in 2004; the EU rating is down starkly from 45 last year and 52 in 2004.

Support for the country's membership of NATO has declined: the percentage of respondents who agreed that NATO is "still essential for the country's security" has dropped from 53% in 2004 to 44% last year and just 35% this year.

Of more consequence is how Turkish support for future EU membership is also declining rapidly: from 73% in 2004 to 54% last year and just 40% this year.

All these data are from the chapter on Turkey in the "Key findings 2007" report.

It puts the panic that the Congressional genocide resolution has caused about the future of US-Turkish relations somewhat in perspective. The current freeze in those relations predates the resolution. It came about when the US launched the Iraq war against fervent Turkish opposition, and has progressed as the war in Iraq, and the way Kurdish rebels have made use of it, has made Turkey's life increasingly difficult.

The parallel drastic deterioration of public attitudes towards the EU meanwhile is just as striking. The Turks are obviously losing patience now that negotations are ever again delayed or blocked. Whether that was done for good or bad reasons, it has obviously taken a toll on the Turkish attitudes to the EU and the West in general. The way politicians in different EU countries, like France's new President Sarkozy, have made opposing Turkish membership a leading campaign theme must also have taken its toll.

The Key Findings report also has information about a number of other subjects by the way, like "Trends in Transatlantic Relations," "Global Threats and Rising Powers", "The European Union as a Global Actor", "New European Leaders, New Opportunities?", and "Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation [on] Afghanistan and Iran". Havent dug into any of those chapters.

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This news article focuses on the Turkish numbers and presents the broader context:

Quote:

Study: Turks cooling towards West
Southeast European Times
02/10/07

Turks have cooled significantly towards the United States and the Europe, and there is a rising sense of alienation from the West, according to a recently published survey by the German Marshall Fund (GMF), a US-based public policy institution.

The study -- Transatlantic Trends 2007 -- revealed a continuing decline in Turkish support for EU membership and growing criticism of both US and EU global leadership. Warmth towards the United States dropped from 20 degrees in 2006 to 11 in 2007 on a 100 point "thermometer scale". [..]

"The last couple of years were particularly difficult for Turkey due to major problems in foreign policy, with the instability in neighbouring Iraq, rising attacks by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the partial suspension of accession talks with the EU," said a senior Turkey expert at the Fund, Ian Lesser. "I still believe that this is a reversible trend. With relevant steps by Washington and Brussels, that is possible," he added.

One of the most important steps is to take Turkey as a serious counterpart, he said, citing the importance of the country's EU perspective.

"Turkish people give very much importance to their concerns being seriously addressed by the Americans and Europeans. Washington and Brussels should more strongly underline Turkey's importance as an international actor," Lesser said.

Although 40% of respondents still view EU membership as positive, support has been declining steadily. The figure is 14% lower than last year and 33% than in 2004. Turkey's talks with the EU, meanwhile, have been hampered by disagreements over Cyprus and other issues, and some members of the bloc -- particularly French President Nicolas Sarkozy -- have voiced open opposition to Turkish membership.

According to the GMF survey, Turkish support for NATO has also continued to decline. Only 35% of those surveyed agreed that NATO is essential for their country's security, compared to 44% last year and 53% in 2004. Analysts said this is part of a mainstream trend among NATO member countries, reflecting a confusion and lack of awareness in public opinion on the new role of the alliance against new security challenges.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan has said PKK terrorists in Iraq and a resolution pending in the US Congress about Armenian genocide claims are the main issues hampering strategic relations between Turkey and the United States. [..] A majority of Turks believe their concerns are not being adequately addressed. Many also accuse European countries of giving support to the PKK.

The survey also found a rise in negative attitudes towards non-Western political actors in the region. Positive sentiment towards neighbouring Iran dropped to 30 degrees on the thermometer from 43 last year. Turkish respondents also harbor "cool" feelings towards Russia (21 degrees) and China (28 degrees) on the 100 point-scale.

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Turkey: Iran and China more popular than US, EU

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