Survey: Iran rift poses transatlantic challenge

DIVIDES ON USE OF FORCE IN IRAN AND AFGHANISTAN
Majorities of both Americans and Europeans agree we should do more to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. Should an increase in diplomatic pressure on Iran fail, 47% percent of Americans feel that the option of military force should be maintained should diplomacy fail, compared with 32% who felt it should be ruled out. Just 18% of Europeans feel the military option should be maintained, and 47% feel it should not. Democrats (35% support) and Republicans (65%) in the United States also are divided on the military option. Most Europeans (64%) and Americans (64%) support contributing troops to international reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, but differ on whether their troops should combat the Taliban (68% of Americans approve, 30% of Europeans).

RUSSIA AND CHINA SEEN AS POTENTIAL THREATS
Americans (79%) and Europeans (65%) express concern about Russia's role in providing weapons to the Middle East, its weakening democracy (75% of Americans, 57% of Europeans); and its role as an energy provider (58% of Americans, 59% of Europeans). Americans and Europeans (54% and 48%, respectively) view China more as an economic threat than as an economic opportunity. By contrast, more Americans (50%) than Europeans (32%) viewed China as a military threat.

SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY PROMOTION CONTINUES TO FALL IN U.S.
37% percent of Americans thought the United States should establish democracy abroad, a drop of eight percentage points from last year and 15 points since 2005. Compared to 2005, Republican support has declined from 76% to 53%, and Democratic support from 43% to 31%. When asked whether they feel it should be the role of the European Union to help establish democracy in other countries, 71% of Europeans (EU11) [1] agreed.

EUROPEANS MORE CRITICAL OF BUSH THAN OF THE UNITED STATES
Europeans have remained critical of President Bush and his international policies (77% disapproval compared to 17% approval). There has been a consistent 20-percentage-point gap between European approval for Bush's international policies and the European public's desire for U.S. leadership in global affairs, suggesting that, while views of the United States are influenced by views of the President's policies, Europeans continue to distinguish between them. When asked to choose the most important factor behind the decline in transatlantic relations, Europeans were divided between the U.S.'s management of the Iraq war (38%) and Bush himself (34%).

MAJORITY FEELS EU SHOULD WORK WITH U.S. ON GLOBAL THREATSTURKEY MOVING TOWARD ISOLATION, PESSIMISTIC ABOUT EU CHANCES
Continuing its cooling since 2004, Turkish "warmth" toward the United States (on a 100-point "thermometer" scale) declined from 28 degrees in 2004 and 20 in 2006 to 11 in 2007, and toward the European Union from 52 degrees in 2004 and 45 in 2006 to 26 in 2007. Turkish warmth toward Iran, which had risen last year, fell from 43 degrees to 30, and Turkey is the cooler toward China (28 degrees) and Russia (21 degrees) than is any other surveyed country. The percentage of Turkish respondents who view EU membership as a good thing remains the largest group (40%) but continued to decline - a drop of 14 percentage points from last year (54%) and 33 points lower than in 2004 (73%). The largest percentage of Europeans (EU11) continue to feel it would be neither good nor bad (42%). When asked how likely it is that Turkey will join the European Union, 56% of Europeans (EU11) felt it is likely that Turkey will join, compared with only 26% of Turkish respondents who agreed.


For the full report and top-line data, see http://www.transatlantictrends.org/



SUPPORTING ORGANIZATIONS

Transatlantic Trends is a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (http://www.gmfus.org/) and the Compagnia di San Paolo (www.compagnia.torino.it) with additional support from Fundação Luso-Americana (http://www.flad.pt/), Fundación BBVA (http://www.fbbva.es/), and the Tipping Point Foundation.

METHODOLOGY
TNS Opinion conducted the survey and collected the data from the United States and 12 European countries: Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. Interviews were conducted by telephone using CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews) in all countries except Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania (where lower telephone penetration necessitates face-to-face interviews), between June 4 and June 23, 2007. In each country, a random sample of approximately 1,000 men and women, 18 years of age and older were interviewed. The margin of error is plus/minus 3 percentage points.

Interestingly enough, shortly after your post, Germany announced it intended to capitulate to Iran's nuclear dreams in the interest of a healthy German economy.

Even more interesting is the suggestion that Germany indicated to US diplomats with a wink and a nod that while they would publicly condemn it, in private they would welcome an American bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:

Interestingly enough, shortly after your post, Germany announced it intended to capitulate to Iran's nuclear dreams in the interest of a healthy German economy.

Even more interesting is the suggestion that Germany indicated to US diplomats with a wink and a nod that while they would publicly condemn it, in private they would welcome an American bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities.

You certainly have a source for that?

We're Americans! We don't need no damn sources.

That complicates things. It blurs our resolve.

But here's what googling "germany wants us to bomb iran" turned up:

BIG STINKING SOURCE

I know, I know...FOX?! What kind of a source is FOX?

Actually they were the first hit on said Google search.

Believe or don't - I don't think I could care less.

France Warns of War