Chinese interest rate warning sends Asian markets tumbling

BBB, The Chinese stock markets over valuation was common knowledge. Why people continued to "speculate" in such a market is based on greed.
As the saying goes, if it's too good to be true, it usually is.

Mind your money.

Events overseas cast a shadow on Federal Reserve meeting
Events overseas cast a shadow on Federal Reserve meeting
By Kevin G. Hall - McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Tue, June 26, 2007

Unless you planned a vacation to New Zealand, you probably don't care much that its central bank raised its lending rate to a record high earlier this month.

But U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke does care, and his concern is likely to arise when the Fed's policy-making body begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday.

New Zealand raised its rate to 8 percent because the global economy, enjoying the longest streak of above-average growth in more than three decades, is so hot that it's sparking inflation, or rising general prices.

Higher interest rates douse inflation, but also slow an economy. If the Fed is forced to raise rates here later this year just as New Zealand has, that would slow the U.S. economy, too.

Bernanke and the Fed are watching New Zealand's central bank because global inflation can pass through to the U.S. economy through import prices. Already the European Central Bank has raised its benchmark lending rate to a six-year high. And Chinese banking authorities are warning that they may raise rates to cool China's overheated stock market. That would raise the cost of making Chinese goods and thus the cost of importing them.

"Pass-through Now Key Question," said a June 22 research report by global banking giant Goldman Sachs & Co. Its researchers concluded that, for now, lower prices of European imports are offsetting higher prices in China.

But the uncertain global inflationary backdrop will bring focus to the Fed's decisions the next two days. Fed members already have telegraphed that their benchmark short-term interest rate ?- the federal funds rate for overnight bank loans ?- will stay where it's been since last June, at 5.25 percent.

But while there's little drama about this week's Fed's rate target, there could be soon, for storm clouds are gathering over the economic horizon abroad and at home.

Data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors showed sales of existing homes fell in May to the lowest level in four years. Median home prices, measured year over year, have fallen for 10 consecutive months. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported new-home sales in May were off 15.8 percent from May 2006.

To reverse a slumping housing market, the Fed historically has cut lending rates to spark the economy. But the pass-through risks from global inflation now limit the Fed's ability to act. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile energy and food sectors, is already at the upper limits of the Fed's tolerance zone, running at a 2.1 percent annual rate for the 12 months ending in May.

Economists believe that global inflation thus has boxed the Fed into holding rates where they are for the rest of the year, and it may force it to raise rates later in the year ?- putting more pressure on home sales and the economy broadly.

"It wasn't talked about that much until the 'economic powerhouse' of New Zealand unexpectedly raised its rates. It wasn't expected, and it may reflect what other countries are thinking as well," said Jim Svinth, chief economist for LendingTree.com, a Charlotte, N.C.-based online exchange that connects lenders and borrowers.

Rising interest rates abroad means that investors will demand higher returns before buying U.S. treasury bonds and other U.S. debt instruments. And selling debt instruments to foreigners is essential to financing the government because of the U.S. budget and trade deficits.

"It just makes it tougher for our government, without raising the rate, to compete for those global savings," Svinth said.

If the Fed were to raise rates later this year, that would raise costs for U.S. consumers for everything from home mortgages to car loans to credit card debt.

Inflation concerns have driven up rates on the 30-year mortgage over the past several months to 6.69 percent as of June 21, up sharply from 6.26 percent in early May. Mortgage rates reflect the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond, which moved above 5 percent on June 7 after stubbornly staying below 5 percent for most of the past four years.

"This long period of low inflation and relatively low long-term interest rates ?- that window is closing," said Ken Goldstein, a veteran economist with The Conference Board, a business-research center in New York. "None of that suggests we are on the inflation treadmill. But clearly that period is ending now, and where we go forward is a little more inflation and therefore somewhat higher interest rates."

Global economic growth averaged more than 4.5 percent annually since 2002, creating these inflationary pressures:

_ Strong economies mean lower unemployment, higher hourly wage costs.

_ Global oil and gasoline prices hover around post-Hurricane Katrina and Rita levels.

_ Global demand for minerals, commodities and metals raises prices of finished products.

_ Higher energy costs and diversion of corn for ethanol drive up food prices.

_ Chemicals and other petroleum derivatives may show the next inflation pass-through costs.

Source: The Conference Board

BBB, That's one thing Bernanke has correct; inflation is a given in the world economy, and interest rates will increase. That's the primary reason it's always good to have bond funds in any portfolio, and depending on one's age, the ratio between bond funds and equity should be considered.

After I retired, we put about 60% into bond funds, because it stabilizes our total investments. Even with 40% in equities, our funds have enjoyed over 10% return during the past three years, and that's after our spending.