Kurdish rebels attack Turkish military outpost

Countdown to Turkish Invasion of Iraq Begins
July 6, 2007
Countdown to Turkish Invasion of Iraq Begins
by Jacques N. Couvas
Inter Press Service

ANKARA - The button of the stopwatch counting down the invasion of northern Iraq by the Turkish army was probably pressed on Tuesday, at an impromptu meeting between Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The two men have, in theory, scheduled meetings on Thursdays, which are often not maintained, as they do not see politically eye-to-eye. The surprise meeting on Tuesday has sparked speculation that the assault is near. Cynics, however, say this is just another coup de theatre, which aims at shaking from the shoulders the United States and Iraq, who are clearly opposed to military action against the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) on Iraqi soil.

False alarms have been almost a routine since the beginning of this year, when the general staff of the armed forces energetically requested the government's approval to move into northern Iraq in large numbers in order to avenge the weekly casualties by the army in eastern Turkey, caused by PKK armed militants stationed in refugee camps and villages in Iraq.

The Turkish army has been drawing plans since last year for a "total cleanup" of that region, but the government has avoided responding clearly. A wait-and-see strategy has prevailed within the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the ruling political formation.

Other events this week corroborate the growing belief that the incursion is near. The U.S. ambassador to Ankara on Monday had to publicly reject in dismay allegations by the Turkish press that his government has been selling weapons to PKK members. The United States, as well as the EU and Turkey, consider this organization a terrorist one.

Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, head of the general staff, speaking on Tuesday at a security conference in the Mediterranean resort city of Antalya, criticized the international community for what he claims was lack of foreign understanding for the situation and cooperation with Turkey to "combat Kurdish terrorism" in Iraq directed against his country.

Gen. Buyukanit came out of a short period of silence on the subject, to which he had retreated after Prime Minister Erdogan had in late June declared that he did not plan to allow in the short-term massive military action in the neighboring country. In Antalya, however, he was outspoken.

"While we maintain our struggle against this terrorist organization," said Buyukanit referring to the PKK, "and expect international cooperation in this struggle, we are having difficulty understanding some positions and attitudes that we face. These attitudes not only disappoint us but contradict the basic notion that combating terrorism requires better cooperation."

More indicative, perhaps, of the signs of an impending incursion into Iraq by Turkish forces is the recent escape of a small group of PKK members who fled a refugee camp in North Iraq and crossed the border to Turkey to seek asylum.

At a press conference this week, organized by local authorities, they claimed that large numbers of Turkish Kurds were fleeing the region in anticipation of a Turkish advance, and that Turkish artillery was abundantly shelling PKK combatant positions.

There is suspicion, however, among observers that the escape and revelations may have been orchestrated by Turkish security services, within the context of psychological warfare, either to incite PKK activists in Northern Iraq to abandon the region, or to prepare the Turkish opinion for future events. Either way, such incidents and information from "beyond the enemy lines" are typical of pre-intervention activity and carry a message or a warning.

The meeting on Tuesday between the two Turkish leaders also indicates that Erdogan is in a situation where he has either to comply with the military, supported by and supporting Sezer, or face the consequences of his moderate approach to the handling of the Kurdish problem.

Not that long ago, on June 13, the prime minister rebuked insistence by the military to cross the border into Iraq. This was consistent with earlier statements of intent to build productive relationships with political chiefs in northern Iraq rather than punish their constituents for their support to the PKK.

"Steps to improve relations with the regional Kurdish administration might be taken in northern Iraq, why not; as long as it brings peace and calm and paves way for positive developments. If every step we are to take will bring calm for us and for them, we are game anytime," Erdogan told Hurriyet, a national newspaper, Feb. 15.

The rationale for his decision in June not to authorize the invasion was that the problem was not really PKK presence in northern Iraq but that of PKK armed activists within his country. "There are 500 terrorists in Iraq; there are 5,000 terrorists inside Turkey. Has terrorism inside Turkey ended for us to think about an operation in northern Iraq?" he asked.

He was quick to add that the figures he gave were just for the purpose of illustrating where the real issue was.

But Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have his back against the wall now - unless he has lured the president and the opposition on to his turf, a competence at which he excels. On the face of things, Sezer may have put Erdogan before an ultimatum. Either the prime minister authorizes the invasion or it can be launched without his approval.

Sezer, as president, is commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Article 92 of the Turkish constitution provides that the president may decide to order the armed forces to take action if the country is attacked while parliament is in recess.

Parliament is indeed in recess, and the country suffers weekly attacks from Iraq-based guerrillas. The president has therefore a free hand to act. Erdogan, however, either because he got the message or, likely, because he saw a political opportunity, has been swift to accommodate the hawks and steal the initiative.

It would seem that he is planning to call for an extraordinary parliamentary session to seek approval for cross-border action. This may lead to a "yes" or a "no," but in any event, the people will have decided - and the military and the president will have to abide by such a decision.

Another reason for the government joining hearts with the military is that there is a growing number of AKP candidates and voters who would rather see decisive action against the PKK, regardless of the high cost and medium-to-low chances of success of the operation.

The opposition, particularly the CHP - the left-wing party founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, father of the Turkish republic - is capitalizing on these popular feelings in view of the legislative elections of July 22.

However, the timing for the green light to move into Iraq remains unclear. Launching the operation before the elections - actually, a few days or hours before July 22 - could increase Erdogan's popularity. At the same time, it could lead to a postponement of the elections, due to a national emergency, an outcome favorable to CHP and probably sought by Sezer.

In this warm night in Ankara, the bets are open at the terraces of both the popular and fashionable cafés and restaurants of the capital. The gambling now is not on the "if" but on the "when" of the first Turkish shot on Iraqi land.

But the excitement, if any, is not shared by the shopkeepers, hotel owners, and restaurateurs around the country. The clicking of rifle triggers and that of cash registers have never been in harmony. For them, the war can wait until the winter.

Turkey 'faces choice between democracy and dictatorship'
Turkey 'faces choice between democracy and dictatorship'
By Nicholas Birch in Kortek, Iraqi Kurdistan
Published: 09 July 2007
Independent UK

Closing your eyes and listening to his thoughts on Turkey's elections at the end of next week, you could almost mistake Cemil Bayik for a political analyst. He is not. In fact, he is one of the two most powerful figures in the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, whose 25-year war against the Turkish state has cost nearly 40,000 lives.

Speaking from his mountain stronghold on Iraq's border with Iran, he says: "Turkey is faced with a choice between democracy and authoritarianism. This debate about secularism and the Kurds is political manouevring - just a means for the powers that be to hold on to their influence."

This year, 67 soldiers have died fighting the PKK, in a wave of violence that at one stage looked as though it might even prevent elections from taking place. Talk of delays has now subsided. But terror - rather than the economy or EU reforms - still makes up the bulk of politicians' campaign speeches.

With 30,000 soldiers massed on the Iraqi border since late April, rumours are rife in Ankara this week that the government might return from holiday to vote for military operations. Asked whether this is what he wants, Mr Bayik insists it is not. The PKK declared a ceasefire in November 2006, he says, and his fighters are only using their "right of self-defence". It is a strange way to describe the conflict. Half of the soldiers killed this year were victims of Iraqi insurgent-style roadside bombs. But the strangest thing about the presence of 2,000 PKK militants in Turkey is that they are not even fighting for an independent Kurdish state any more. Since 1995, they have been fighting for democracy.

That is still some way off in south-eastern Turkey, admittedly. This April, a court ruled that four policemen who shot a 12-year-old boy nine times in the back at close range had acted in self-defence and acquitted them.

But the situation now is an improvement on the past. Before 1991, speaking Kurdish in public was illegal. Now, says Orhan Miroglu, a senior member of a pro-Kurdish party who many Turks see as a front for the PKK, "nobody questions our right to have political representation".

Mr Bayik also acknowledges there have been improvements. But he points to the refusal of Turkey's leaders to take the PKK's ceasefires seriously as evidence that Turkey's European Union-backed democratisation process is a sham.

"We're not fighting because we are in love with war. We're fighting because we have been given no alternative", he says.

An Ankara-based terrorism specialist Nihat Ali Ozcan, thinks the group is nervous about losing its grasp now, with elections approaching and Turkey's Kurdish vote split between nationalists and supporters of the religious-minded government.

Since 1995, when it realised it could not defeat the army head on, the PKK has seen conflict as a political tactic, he says. "This time, its aim is to strengthen ties with its civilian backers." But there is another, much more pragmatic way in which the PKK has benefited from conflict: fighting is good for discipline.

"When you're fighting, all you think about is survival," says Zuhal Serhat, who joined the PKK in 1995, aged 15. "It was when we stopped that we started asking questions."

She is referring to the five-year ceasefire that followed the capture of the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in 1999. His jailing split the organisation, with 1,500 fighters leaving the organisation between 2004 and 2005. Many went freely. Serhat fled by night through Saddam-era minefields and was led to safety by local shepherds. With the army barely 62 miles away, security in the PKK's mountain base is tighter than in the past. Visitors used to be able to walk in. Now bags and clothes are checked closely.

Despite everything, though, the mood appears relaxed. "A Turkish invasion of Iraq would lead to the division of Turkey," says Mr Bayik. "They won't just have us in opposition. They'll have the world." Rubar, a Russian Kurd who joined the PKK in 1994, agrees. "We've never been stronger", he says.

The Kurds' campaign

* OCTOBER 1978 Proclamation of independence and formal establishment of the PKK.

* 1984 Beginning of a full- scale guerrilla war against Turkey from bases mainly in Syria.

* JUNE 1994 Bombs explode in two Turkish resorts, injuring 10 foreign tourists.

* NOVEMBER 1998 First of a series of suicide attacks, many carried out by female bombers

* FEBRUARY 1999 PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan captured in Kenya. Sentenced to death, but commuted to life imprisonment.

* SEPTEMBER 2006 Latest in series of ceasefires that rebels say not observed by troops.

The Kurdish mountain army awaiting the next invasion of Iraq
The Kurdish mountain army awaiting the next invasion of Iraq
By Patrick Cockburn in the Qandil mountains
Published: 19 July 2007
Independent UK

Hiding in the high mountains and deep gorges of one of the world's great natural fortresses are bands of guerrillas whose presence could provoke a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq and the next war in the Middle East.

In the weeks before the Turkish election on Sunday, Turkey has threatened to cross the border into Iraq in pursuit of the guerrillas of the Turkish Kurdish movement, the PKK, and its Iranian Kurdish offshoot, Pejak.

The Iraqi Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, warns that there are 140,000 Turkish troops massed just north of the frontier.

"Until recently, we didn't take the Turkish threat that seriously but thought it was part of the election campaign," says Safeen Sezayee. A leading Iraqi Kurdish expert on Turkey and spokesman for the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Massoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Mr Dezayee now sees an invasion as quite possible.

The Iraqi Kurds are becoming nervous. The drumbeat of threats from Turkish politicians and generals has become more persistent. "The government and opposition parties are competing to show nationalist fervour," says Mr Dezayee. Anti-PKK feeling is greater than ever in Turkey.

Most menacingly, Turkey is appalled that the Kurds are key players in Iraqi politics and are developing a semi-independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq.

After the election, Ankara may find it impossible to retreat from the bellicose rhetoric of recent weeks and will send its troops across the border, even if the incursion is only on a limited scale.

If the Turkish army does invade, it will not find it easy to locate the PKK guerrillas. Their main headquarters is in the Qandil mountains which are on the Iranian border but conveniently close to Turkey. It is an area extraordinarily well-adapted for guerrilla warfare where even Saddam Hussein's armies found it impossible to penetrate.

To reach Qandil, we drove east from the Kurdish capital Arbil to the well-watered plain north of Dokan lake. In the town of Qala Diza, destroyed by Saddam Hussein but now being rebuilt, the local administrator Maj Bakir Abdul Rahman Hussein was quick to say that Qandil was ruled by the PKK: " We don't have any authority there." He said there was regular shelling from Iran that led to some border villages being evacuated but he did not seem to consider this out of the ordinary. "The Iranians do it whenever they are feeling international pressure," he said.

We hired a four-wheel drive vehicle and a driver in black Kurdish uniform who was from Qandil. Just below the mountains, we were stopped by the paramilitary Iraqi Frontier Guards. A red-white-and-black Iraqi flag, a rare sight in Kurdistan, flew over their headquarters which is built like a miniature medieval castle.

Kurdish officials close to Qandil are strangely eager to disclaim any authority over their own sovereign territory. In a stern lecture, after consulting with his superiors by phone, Lt- Col Ahmad Sabir of the Frontier Guards said we could go on but "we have no control beyond this point and no responsibility for what happens to you. You may meet PKK, Iranians on the border or shepherds with guns."

The road to the mountain climbs up the sides of steep hills dotted with small oak trees, past hamlets with flat roofs made from mud and brushwood.

The road is at first pot-holed asphalt, then broken rock and finally, after crossing a bridge over a mountain torrent, it gives up being a road at all and becomes a track, parts of which had been swept away by avalanches.

The first sign of the PKK was a sentry box confidently in the open with two armed men in khaki uniform who confiscated our passports and mobile phones. Driving on, we came to a strange and exotic mausoleum to the PKK dead. Its walls are painted white and red and inside the gates are ornamental ponds and flowerbeds overlooked by a white column 30ft high, on top of which is miniature yellow star in metal or concrete, the symbol of the PKK.

The cemetery, built in 2002, holds 67 graves and stands in the middle of the deserted Marado valley inhabited only by grazing cattle. "Just three of those buried here died from natural causes," says Farhad Amat, a PKK soldier from Dyarbakir in Turkey who is in charge of the mausoleum.

Founded in the 1970s, the PKK fought a lengthy but ultimately unsuccessful guerrilla war in south-east Turkey in which at least 35,000 people died. A Marxist-Leninist separatist Kurdish organisation, its leader Abdullah Ocalan was captured in 1999 and its 4,000 well-trained fighters sought refuge in northern Iraq.

The inscriptions on the grave-stones tell the tragic history of the PKK. Almost all of those who died were Turkish Kurds, many of them very young. For instanc,e a girl fighter whose nom de guerre was "Nergis" and real name Khazar Kaba was just 16 when she was killed on 30 July 2001.

At a PKK guest house by a brook shaded by ancient trees, we met several women guerrillas, who, contrary to patriarchal Kurdish traditions, play an important role in the PKK. They were wearing uniform and with them was an Iranian Kurdish family consisting of a mother, father and son. Their presence was unexplained until we were leaving when the father, Agai Mohammedi from Sina in Iran, suddenly blurted out that they were trying to find and bring home his 25-year-old son who had run off to join the PKK.

They were going from camp to camp looking for him but were always told he was not there. "Please, can you help us," asked Mr Mohammedi but there was nothing we could do.

The scale of the fighting is small. Pejak launches sporadic raids into Iranian Kurdistan. The PKK stages ambushes and bombings in Turkey and has escalated its attacks this year, killing at least 67 soldiers and losing 110 of its own fighters according to the Turkish authorities. But this limited skirmishing could have an explosive impact. The attacks provide an excuse for Turkish action against an increasingly independent Iraqi Kurdish state. "They [the Turks] want an excuse to overturn what has been achieved in Iraqi Kurdistan," says Mr Dezayee. A referendum is to be held in northern Iraq by the end of 2007 under which the oil city of Kirkuk may vote to join the KRG. The incentive for a Turkish invasion is growing by the day.

"Everything depends on the result of the Turkish election," says Dr Mahmoud Othman, a veteran Iraqi Kurdish politician.

If the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wins a two-thirds majority then the pressure for an invasion may be off. But if he believes he lost votes because his anti-PKK and Turkish nationalist credentials were not strong enough then he might want to burnish them by ordering a cross border incursion.

The lightly armed PKK, knowing every inch of the mountainous terrain at Qandil, will be able to evade Turkish troops. But the Iraqi Kurds worry that they and not the PKK are the real target of the Turkish army. After making so many threats before the election, Turkey may find it difficult to back off without looking weak.