Too close to call as France prepares to go to the polls

21 April 2007
Too close to call as France prepares to go to the polls
By Anne Penketh in Paris
Published: 21 April 2007
Independent UK

France will usher in a new era of change in presidential elections tomorrow in which voters are to choose a successor to President Jacques Chirac.

Two main candidates, the conservative former minister Nicolas Sarkozy, and the Socialist former minister Ségolène Royal, have remained steady as the voters' most popular choice to go forward into the decisive second round after tomorrow's first round narrows the field.

But experienced French pollsters and commentators point out that given the high number of undecided voters on the eve of the election - roughly one third of the 44 million strong electorate - there could still be a big surprise that could catapult one of the other two candidates into the second round. On the eve of the election, with the polls pointing in different directions, the first round is too close to call.

François Bayrou, a centrist former education minister campaigning for an end to the left/right divide that has traditionally polarised French political life, and the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, are the jokers in the pack who have created a sense of suspense about the outcome.

The only thing on which the opinion polls agree is the pecking order of the candidates' popularity. M Sarkozy, President Chirac's former hardline interior minister, has consistently been in first place, with Mme Royal, who was a minister under Francois Mitterrand, in second. M. Bayrou and M. Le Pen come in third and fourth, according to the polls.

But yesterday's opinion polls produced different results for each candidate, with M. Sarkozy oscillating between 28 per cent and 30 per cent, and Mme Royal coming in with 23-24 percent. M. Bayrou recorded 18 to 19.5 per cent, while M Le Pen had 13 to 14 per cent.

If the polls are reliable - and in previous elections they were not - that should mean that the second round would be a traditional battle between the right and the left. That is how Mme Royal and M. Sarkozy have framed the debate. But polling experts say that M. Le Pen's vote is likely to be underestimated - as it was in 2002 when he shocked the country by securing a place in the run-off against M. Chirac. Equally, M. Le Pen could drain votes from M. Sarkozy, who could suffer from a campaign focusing on his divisive personality.

Mme Royal could be vulnerable meanwhile if voters decided to switch to the centrist candidate M. Bayrou, who could benefit from an "anti-system" protest vote.

Brice Teinturier, of the polling agency Sofres, told Le Monde that "we cannot rule out a reversal of the curves" of Mme Royal and M. Bayrou, putting the Socialist candidate in danger.

However, Socialist party managers remain confident that their candidate stands to benefit from an expected high turnout as the French consider the stakes in voting for a president from a new generation who will turn the page on 12 years of economic decline under President Chirac.

They sense that unlike the 2002 poll, voters will shun the extreme positions incarnated by M. Le Pen in favour of a clear "choice of society", as offered by M. Sarkozy on the right and Mme Royal on the left.

"It is a vote for change. People know we can't carry on like this," said a member of Mme Royal's campaign team, the "Blairite" senator Jean-Marie Bockel. "But they are afraid of being the victims themselves."

How will they vote?

* JONATHAN CHOQUEL, Journalist and podcaster, 34: Ségolène Royal

"For me, the best thing about politics is change. If the same party stays in power for years and years then I don't think that's true democracy. Ségolène represents another form of change as well, as she's a woman after so many men."

* EUGÉNIE MELBOUCI, Sales representative, 31: Undecided

"I'm more tempted by Sarkozy than Ségolène, but even more so by Bayrou. I like his idea of a coalition between the left and the right. In the past I've voted on the right, but I don't really think any of them can change France. Sarkozy has more charisma."

* JOEL MOULET, Former sound engineer, 69: François Bayrou

"We've had enough of extremes. I believe Bayrou could beat Sarkozy in the second round, but I don't think he'll get through so I'll vote then for Ségolène. I don't think Sarkozy's a fascist, but he does say things that don't do him any favours."

* NICOLAS CENNAC, Journalist, 28: Bayrou

"First, I believe that Bayrou's idea for the coalition between left and right could work very well, and second, while all three main candidates have some good ideas, Ségolène doesn't convince me, I find her too opportunist, and Sarkozy is too aggressive."

* ANNE-SOPHIE MEYER, Archivist, 27: Undecided

"I think I'll vote on the right, but other than that I really haven't decided. I'll vote for one of the three main candidates, but I don't think any of their solutions are the right ones. Bayrou's idea for a coalition is really stupid, you can't try and please everyone."

* SIMON LAMOURET, Student, 21: José Bové, anti-globalisation candidate

"Bové is the only candidate who offers a really coherent alternative to the received ideas of ultra-capitalism and productivism imposed on us by the media. He is the only one to talk sense about the environment and the Third World."