STRATFOR week of 7/15/03

STRATFOR week of 7/15/03

July 14, 2003

The crisis du jour in Washington is a revelation that President George W. Bush quoted from a forged letter about Iraq trying to buy uranium from Niger in his State of the Union address. Congress, as usual, is missing the point. Weapons of mass destruction were not the primary reason Bush went to war in Iraq, but he certainly thought they were there. Everyone thought they were there. The really critical issue is where are Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons today? What the CIA did with the Niger letter is of no real importance. What the CIA knows and doesn't know about the current war in Iraq and whether guerrillas control chemical or biological weapons is the critical issue that everyone is avoiding.

Iraq: Resistance Forces Target Weakest Link
July 11, 2003

A new tactic is emerging in the Iraqi resistance movement: Along with an increase in attacks against coalition forces, there also has been a recent upswing in violence against Iraqis who are cooperating with U.S. officials -- including police, government administrators and humanitarian workers. Police have borne the brunt of the violence, which now has led them to ask U.S. soldiers to vacate police stations and certain neighborhoods in Al Fallujah. The U.S. Army has agreed, showing that it can be more effective for resistance fighters to target Iraqis rather than U.S. forces directly.

New Equilibrium for Oil Markets
July 11, 2003

After a year that can best be described as epileptic, oil markets are finally in for a protracted period of relative calm as the U.S. recovery and OPEC backpedaling absorb nearly all fresh production from Iraq and Russia.
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STRATFOR week of 7/7/03
Finger Pointing in Iraq's Oil Ministry Highlights Problems

July 09, 2003
Two branches of the Iraqi Oil Ministry have begun arguing about who is to blame for the slow recovery of Iraq's oil exports. Their statements cast an unflattering light on what obstacles remain to be tackled.


A Chink in the Armor of U.S.-Turkish Ties?
July 08, 2003

Tensions have risen between Ankara and Washington following the July 4 arrests of 11 Turkish special operations officers by U.S. forces on a Turkish military office in northern Iraq. At first glance, the situation appears to have the potential to escalate into an international incident. Because of the nature of the mission and the relationship of convenience between Washington and Ankara, the Turkish rhetoric will remain heated but there will be little to no damage to the two countries' relationship -- at least in the short term. Washington and Ankara's long-term relationship, however, is another story.


U.S. Counterinsurgency Strategies in Iraq
July 07, 2003

The appointment of Gen. John Abizaid as head of U.S. Central Command opens a new phase in both the Iraq campaign and the war on al Qaeda. In order to wage follow-on operations against al Qaeda, an effective counterinsurgency operation must be launched against the Iraqi guerrillas. Politically, the United States must demonstrate its effectiveness against the full spectrum of opponents. Militarily, the United States must show it can project forces from Iraq while the base of operations remains insecure. These are challenges that the U.S. administration must overcome. Directly suppressing an insurrection without indigenous support historically has been difficult. Iraq, however, has a built-in opposition to the guerrillas: the Shiites in the south. But their desire to dominate an Iraqi government -- and their ties to Iran -- run counter to U.S. policy. This means Washington will have to make some difficult choices in Iraq, and in the end will give away some things it does not want to give away.


Tatneft To Break the Oil Barrier in Iraq?
July 01, 2003

Russian oil major Tatneft hopes to relaunch operations in Iraq. Though its Russian brethern currently have no chance of doing so, Tatneft's small size and relative obscurity give it an outside chance of success.