@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:
The captain made (at least) three fatal mistakes - missed the turn after the "showboating", didn't slow down afterwards, and most fatally didn't ran the ship aground on the (sandy) beach.
It will take some time until we really know, who was responsible of what.
But it won't take as long as that until the last victims are found.
Lots of details remain unclear, including how much time elapsed from the initial grounding to the fatal list, (from the available commentary it was at least 30 minutes, and exactly where the grounding occurred (though it appears the ship hit the rocks on the small island to starboard of the narrow channel through which ot passed on a northerly course inbound to the harbor). Despite these information deficiencies I find the examination of the available details in an attempt to figure out what happened quite intriguing.
The distance from that channel to the seawall where the ship came to rest is about one kilometer. It's a safe bet the ship was doing at least 12 kts going through the narrow channel between the island outcroppings - anything less would have been real madness in such a vessel. At 12 Kts that distance would be covered in about 3 minutes. One photo I saw of the damaged hull looked like a deep puncture in the hull - suggesting perhaps that the ship had an easterly (starboard) component of velocity when it grounded. This could have been the result of an uncompensated offshore wind that drove the ship on the rocks or the swing of the hull in a late port turn to avoid imminent grounding.
The captain was quoted as saying he let go of the port anchor to dissipate the ship's headway and swing the ship around the anchor leaving the damaged starboard side towards the shore. If so, this was an intelligent maneuver and one that probably saved many lives. I'm not sure there really are any "sandy shallow slope beaches" on the island, or indeed that the ship could have turned 90 degrees to port in the available space with any appreciable headway. The reports all cite darkness and at least a partial loss of electrical power on the ship, some time before the fatal list occurred. These vessels have steerable external "pods" enclosing the electrically powered motors that drive the ship. It is possible that the ship suffered a cascading loss of electrical power after the grounding, disabling at least some of its propulsive power. It is also believable that one or more of the steerable propulsion pods was literally scraped off the hull in the grounding, perhaps inducing the electrical failure.
The deep part of the very narrow channel through which the ship passed is hardly two or three times the underwater beam of the ship. Had they not taken this route, we can be sure the accident would not have occurred with nearly 100% certainty. Taking a high freeboard vessel like that through such a passage adjacent to a hilly island with all the attendant variable winds and currents was foolhardy in the extreme, and -in my view - sufficient reason to replace the captain, even if no grounding occurred. His failure to directly supervise the maneuver greatly exacerbated the failure, and suggests a grave lack of seriousness about his central responsibilities. The reportsd that this and other company vessels had done this repeatedly before, merely confirms that (1) if one repeatedly takes a 5% chance of loosing the ship for virtually no benefit, one will eventually lose a ship, and (2) there is a serious problem with the company's management.