0
   

Futurologists Post Up!

 
 
Chumly
 
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 02:31 am
Actual, and would be, and wanna-be and curious onlookers all welcome, as are any and all related articles and dialogue. So here you be for starters. Oh, I make no claims as to any official credentials related to the topic at hand.
Quote:
23rd May 2005 08:17 AM
LONDON: British futurologist Ian Pearson, head of the futurology unit at BT, predicts humans will be able to download the contents of their brain into computers by the mid 21st century. Pearson also believes machines will also be capable of feeling emotion in the future, and that the next computing goal is replicating consciousness.

"If you draw the timelines, realistically by 2050 we would expect to be able to download your mind into a machine, so when you die it's not a major career problem," Pearson told the Observer newspaper in an interview.

"If you're rich enough then by 2050 it's feasible. If you're poor you'll probably have to wait until 2075 or 2080 when it's routine.

"We are very serious about it. That's how fast this technology is moving: 45 years is a hell of a long time in IT."

Extrapolating computing power is not a difficult task: transistor density on semiconductors has increased at the rate predicted by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore (Moore's Law), approximately doubling every couple of years. Sony's next generation console, the PlayStation 3, is around 35 times more powerful than the PS2 released 5 years ago. Pearson notes that it is "1 percent as powerful as a human brain". Current supercomputers such as IBM's Blue Gene are many orders greater, and possibly have the raw power required to simulate a complete brain.

Whether raw computing power is enough to retain the actual functioning mental processes of a human being is another matter.

Pearson also makes predictions about artificial consciousness:

"Not everyone agrees, but it's my conclusion that it's possible to make a conscious computer with superhuman levels of intelligence before 2020."

For futurologists, this may be cause for alarm, or at the very least, raised levels of interest in the field of AI. Vinge's singularity theory predicts:

"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."

"The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):

* There may be developed computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)
* Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
* Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
* Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect."

http://photonswarm.com/tech-news/?news=14
  • Topic Stats
  • Top Replies
  • Link to this Topic
Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 1,962 • Replies: 31
No top replies

 
Chumly
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 02:56 am
I just saw a show on the tube about Stelarc, they implanted an artificial ear into his arm!
Quote:
Stelarc (born Stelios Arcadiou on June 19, 1946) to Greek Cypriot parents is an Australian performance artist whose works focus heavily on futurism and extending the capabilities of the human body. As such, most of his pieces are centered around his concept that the human body is obsolete. He currently serves as Principal Research Fellow in the Performance Arts Digital Research Unit at Nottingham Trent University in Nottingham, England.

Stelarc's idiosyncratic performances often involve robotics or other relatively modern technology integrated with his body somehow. In 25 different performances he has hung himself in flesh hook suspension, often with one of his robotic inventions integrated. In another performance he allowed his body to be controlled remotely by electronic muscle stimulators connected to the internet. He has also performed with a robotic third hand, a robotic third arm, and a pneumatic spider-like six-legged walking machine which sits the user in the center of the legs and allows them to control the machine through arm gestures.

His works have been heralded for their abilities to embrace a wider audience, the best example of this was his allowance for the worldwide audience to log into the exhibition and thus access or control the electrodes his own body was hooked up to.


http://www.stelarc.va.com.au/
0 Replies
 
dadpad
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 03:00 am
Energy storage systems will be the "next big thing". Storage systems that are capable of storing energy when its available and drawing on it when energy is not available due to cloud or lack of wind. I'm not sure if these will be domestic however I can imagine walls of houses being constucted to be filled with storage capacity. Solar and wind collectors on the outside of walls and roof will collect and transfer energy for storage. All buildings will be entirely covered with solar cells, either for heat or energy collections.

In Australia water will be rationed by constricting flow rates or pressure at the houshold meter.
0 Replies
 
Chumly
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 03:33 am
Very believable! What you might also see (particularly in areas lacking sun and/or hydro power) is independent small off the grid local generators using clean burn technologies on some sort of co-op basis. These generators could then sell power back to the grid to potentially reduce costs during lower peak times.
0 Replies
 
dadpad
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 05:29 am
Chumly wrote:
Very believable! What you might also see (particularly in areas lacking sun and/or hydro power) is independent small off the grid local generators using clean burn technologies on some sort of co-op basis. These generators could then sell power back to the grid to potentially reduce costs during lower peak times.


We have this already.

Clean burn technology with recycled pulverised combustible material backed up by plantation grown fuel wood.

It would be interesting to see some research on co2 output (of small scale generators) vs take up by plantations.
0 Replies
 
Chumly
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 06:41 am
I've heard about cleaner-burn, but I've not heard of small localized independent generation, at least not in Canada / US (have not really looked too hard though).

By "independent small off the grid local generators" "on some sort of co-op basis" I meant neighborhood-ish sized as owned by the users.

I guess you are wondering if the CO2 expelled by burning is absorbed by the plantations? Where are these plantations & small scale generators?
0 Replies
 
Cyracuz
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 10:06 am
I read somewhere about a substance called Thorium. It is radioactive and can be used to create vast supplies of power.
It is not as volatile as uranium, and since it needs an external factor to react, core meltdown is not possible. If power was to vanish from the powerplant the reactors would simply stop.

And it's impossible to make nuclear bombs with thorium.

And the best part: There are enough reserves of thorium to fuel the entire energyneed of the whole world as it is today for another ten thousand years or so. And that's just the thorium we know about.


http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf62.htm
0 Replies
 
dadpad
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 05:46 pm
Chumly wrote:
I've heard about cleaner-burn, but I've not heard of small localized independent generation, at least not in Canada / US (have not really looked too hard though).

By "independent small off the grid local generators" "on some sort of co-op basis" I meant neighborhood-ish sized as owned by the users.

I guess you are wondering if the CO2 expelled by burning is absorbed by the plantations? Where are these plantations & small scale generators?


I've seen some promotional material coming out of Sweden/Finland for domestic sized units. Essentially chip heaters with complete combustion technology and smoke scrubbers.

These are designed for domestic heating and hot water but I see no real reason why a larger unit shouldn't be used for electricty generation when combined with a turbine. Even if the chip heaters were only used for preheating water to boiling point then superheated with a gas fired unit the saving in fossil fuel would be enourmous.

I worked recently here in Oz with a chap who contracted to harvest poor quality forest in England to supply fuel for electricity generation in a pilot plant. I understand there are several projects in Europe involving willow or poplar for fuelwood.

Quote:
Combined heat and power from wood waste
in Sweden
ENA-Kraft Ltd is an energy producer located in
Enköping, Sweden (around 70km west of Stockholm).
The plant is owned by Enköping Energy and Västerås
Energy, and supplies the district's network with both
heat and electricity.
The main fuel for the plant is wood fuel, with a
proportion supplied from the city dump, and the
balance comprised of a mix of biofuels including
bark, sawdust, residues from logging operations,
and Salix species (willow) specially-grown on short
rotations for biofuel. The typical fuel mixture is
50% wood chips, 15% sawdust, 15% Salix and 20%
bark, and the average moisture content of the fuel is
between 40 - 60%.he overall biofuel consumption is 100 cubic metres
per hour, and the electricity is produced in the
neighbourhood of the city of Enköping.

Forest owners within a 70 km radius supply the
plant with residues from normal timber harvesting
operations (such as the tree tops and the branches).
The sawdust and bark is supplied from local sawmills.

Salix is grown on local farmland, and chipped in-
field, then delivered to the plant for processing.
The total connected power from the plant is 140 MW,
and there are 1,238 connected subscribers, of which
947 are single family houses.

In 1997, the total delivered heat from the plant was 209,498 MWh
(754 TJ). It was delivered over a grid network of 72 km. The total water volume in the network is 3.100 m³, and water is heated in the boiler and pumped around the network in a closed system to subscribers
in the town of Enköping.

short rotation crops NZ

The quote I have supplies is from a different address as the url supplied is a non modifiable PDF (cant copy/paste)
0 Replies
 
Chumly
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 05:59 pm
Nifty!
0 Replies
 
Eorl
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 08:05 pm
I expect that before long we will have devices that can deliver information (music, phone calls, vision, halucination, pain relief, medical stats, vehicle data, etc.) directly into our nervous systems...implants perhaps? One will edit one's own system on the fly to attach or detach to any particular information stream one wants to....for a fee, of course.

This will replace computers, keyboards, phones, portable music and vision, GPS, etc.

On the down side, it will be difficult to hide.
0 Replies
 
OmSigDAVID
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 08:39 pm
" humans will be able to download the contents of their brain
into computers by the mid 21st century "

We will all share the same BRAIN
in the mid 21st century ?
0 Replies
 
Chumly
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Jan, 2007 10:10 pm
Eorl wrote:
On the down side, it will be difficult to hide.
You got that right!
0 Replies
 
Cyracuz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jan, 2007 04:23 am
I envision a million problems with this sort of technology.

Personal security is out the window when it is possible to hack a brain.

Not to menton dirty secrets.

It would be easy to steal someone's ideas.

Would it be possible to upload informaton into the brain as well?

I do not like the thought of this downloading contents of our brains.
0 Replies
 
Eorl
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jan, 2007 05:44 pm
It is dangerous. Imagine if we could record a persons voice! Someone could mix the words up later so that they seemed to say something different!

New technology is often scary, but we always find ways to use it anyway.

Video hasn't killed the radio star yet.
0 Replies
 
Chumly
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jan, 2007 06:23 pm
It is already possible to cut / paste and even morph a person's voice to some fair degree! I am a casual musician (play on weekends) and the software / hardware for manipulating and morphing audio is becoming quite powerful.

Without getting too techno, there are things called formants which gives the word its individual characteristic timbre in terms of male-female, old-young etc.

For example I have a hardware based vocal harmonizer called a Voiceworks which not only allows multiple versions of my voice to be pitched higher or lower, but can take on characteristics not inherent to my actual timbre.

How much more sophisticated would such manipulations be in the hands of the National Security Agency or the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (well maybe not us Canadians) or some covert black ops agency? Enough to fool someone on the telephone?
0 Replies
 
Eorl
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jan, 2007 07:57 pm
Yeah Chumly, I was being sarcastic with the voice thing to make the point about how such a science may once have been seen as potentially dangerous. (My whole work life is spent in ProTools, when it's not in A2K that is.)
0 Replies
 
Chumly
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jan, 2007 12:27 am
You need to modify your formants to emphasize sarcasm Smile

Cakewalk Sonar for me
0 Replies
 
Cyracuz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jan, 2007 05:22 am
I don't need voice manipulations. I just use my brother. Our voices are so alike that even our mother cannot tell us apart on the phone.
I used to call his work and introduce myself as him, asking for him. That usually turned out hillariously.


Chumly
Cakewalk Sonar, is that you mixer, or audio recording software? How is that treating you?

Personally I use Steinberg Cubase. It's good.
0 Replies
 
Chumly
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jan, 2007 02:08 pm
Cakewalk Sonar, is audio software, I suppose not as well received as Protools but no weakling either especially if you include MIDI editing. Cubase is nice too.
0 Replies
 
Amigo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jan, 2007 02:16 pm
This thread is nuts. I'm gonna go talk to my dog and drink a corona.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

How can we be sure? - Discussion by Raishu-tensho
Proof of nonexistence of free will - Discussion by litewave
Destroy My Belief System, Please! - Discussion by Thomas
Star Wars in Philosophy. - Discussion by Logicus
Existence of Everything. - Discussion by Logicus
Is it better to be feared or loved? - Discussion by Black King
Paradigm shifts - Question by Cyracuz
 
  1. Forums
  2. » Futurologists Post Up!
Copyright © 2024 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.03 seconds on 04/26/2024 at 10:24:56