Thanks for the UNMOVIC link, Walter. I've copied it into the Political Links thread.
Political Links
Anyone with useful links is welcome to post them on this thread, by the way, especially if they have enduring usefullness.
CI
Agree, they haven't. But they are working on it.
I read recently a little tidbit that said the BA {Bush Administration} is going to share CIA and other information with the UNMOVIC. I haven't seen anything else before or since. But, I haven't been reading a whole bunch lately - doing my Xmas stuff!
I heard that too, BillW. Yesterday, I believe. They say they've been holding back till there are enough inspectors on the ground to use the information quickly. A little now, and more later. It doesn't sound completly unplausible.
The US has a big credibility problem: They say they have evidence, but if they give too much, that Iraq will figure out how they got the info. A sort of catch-22 situation. That's the crux that I'm waiting for it to break - one way or the other. c.i.
I rather suspect there is an actual "Smoking Gun" or two or so of which Western Intelligence Assetts have conclusive evidence. Forward Placement of units to be involved in the planned assault is not yet complete ... a few, maybe four to six, weeks are yet required before we have brought all our toys and the party can begin.
Apart from diplomatic wrangling (which surely continues in vigorous manner), the considerations to be made and contingencies to be accommodated in the matter of moving hundreds-of-millions of tons of material, hundreds-of-thousands of men, tens-of-thousands of vehicles and aircraft, and thousands of ocean going ships to any given point on the globe, then supplying, otherwise supporting, and effectively directing that mind-boggling assemblage, comprise an enterprise that beggars the imagination. It simply bears no relationship whatsoever to inviting the crowd over to the house for a gathering. Odd as it may seem at first thought, that such a thing CAN happen, and happen over a matter of just a few months, is in its own sick way among "The Crowning Achievements of Civilization".
My conjecture is that as final military preparations are made according to their prescribed schedule, Bush The Younger's minions will "have an ear to the ground", and and both official and 'Understood and agreed upon only" International mood will be carefully gauged. I anticipate an "Evidence Escalation", a succesion of increasingly definitive disclosures and confirmations to a "Big Finish" end sometime in mid-to-late January. I believe we are at the moment in something of a "Christmas Lull", and anticipate major developments to occur during the Christmas-New Year week. A "Conclusive" bombshell incident will develop not later than mid-January. Iraq, mindful that diplomatic complications among US/UN Partners dwindle, reasonably may be expected to attempt on its own to ratchet up tension, seeing advantage to be gained by engineering the premature execution of not wholly-formed plans.
A conjunction of dates occurs which I find intriguing. The "Final UN Statement of Conclusions" is to be presented on January 27. Bush the Younger is to deliver the Annual State Of The Union Address on January 28.
timber
tim, It seems to me that according to your time-line, January 28 is the magic date. We shall hold our breath in anticipation. c.i.
No promisises there, but it offers possibility. A further venture out on to the limb: Watch for N. Korea to begin to factor in increasing fasion with her typical hammer-and-glass diplomatic finesse.
timber
I don't think even Bush would have the audacity to go to war in the State of the Union message. He will certainly be arrogant and finger wagging, but not that. He will probably announce, IMHO, a final order he gave that afternoon that is just starting a final fast moving requirement for Saddam to do that will be accomplished in one or two weeks at the most, then the war begins.
St Valentine's Day, previously suggested, sounds like a good date to me!
BillW, I'm in no special rush to go to war, and the difference of a few weeks or days doesn't matter much to the rest of this world. The big Q is if, then when? c.i.
Hope I didn't sound like I knew for sure, I too believe that someone has already decided. Let me change that absolute to:
St Valentine's Day, previously suggested, sounds like a just date to me! (just=St Valentine's Day Massacre). I would prefer the 1st of Never!
Timber
I think your reasoning and time line likely damned close to fact.
Re your line..."Odd as it may seem at first thought, that such a thing CAN happen, and happen over a matter of just a few months, is in its own sick way among "The Crowning Achievements of Civilization"... let me add to that category of crowning achievements the thoroughness and efficacy of media manipulation which was, is, and will be complimentary.
Also, I am wondering what has happened to the scientists that were suppose to be taken out of Iraq. There seems to be no movement in that regard lately. I guess they still have about two or three weeks to make it effective if they come out. It has been mentioned that they must get all the relatives out with each one. That would be many dozens in some cases. Are we ready for that? This is at a stalemate right now.
Official Iraqi Statement
Excerpted from the above-linked press release, issued a short while ago:
Quote:AS FOR THE POLITICAL SITUATION, THE PRESIDENT COMMENTED THAT FOLLOWING SECURITY COUNCIL BEING ENFORES TO STUDY THE LIFTING SANCTIONS IMPPOSED ON IRAQ, THE U.S TEMPTED CHARGING IRAQ OF PRODUCING MASS ESTRUCTION WEAPONS DESPITE THEY HAD EXPELLED THE INSPECTION TEAMS SO AS TO STRIKE THE INSPECTED FACILITIES.
HE ADDED ''WE HAD BEEN TELLING THE WORLD WE DO NOT PRODUCE THIS SORT OF WEAPONS BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE WORLD IS ACQUIESCENT TO ITS WEAKNESS.
PRESIDENT HUSSEIN CONCLUDED ''WE DEFEND OUR COUNTRY AND THE RIGHT OF SELF-DEFENCE IS LEGAL ACCORDING TO U.N DOCUMENT.''
The above lifted directly from Iraq's Quasi Official website, spelling, grammar, caps lock and all. This may be a crafty and determined enemy, and one not to be underestimated, but one which appears relatively unsophisticated in the conventional sense of the word.
timber
I find it refreshing that Madison Avenue has yet to penetrate all corners.
There was a fellow who turned up on an abuzz thread about a year ago. He was bright, well spoken and friendly fellow. And right from the top he was quite open about his work, which was media liason for the military. I quite liked the fellow and he brought a number of very relevant and interesting points to our discussion on how the military and the press ought to interact. But it became clear fairly quickly that his education was not in political theory, but in marketing.
With regard to Timber's assessment of possible alternative diplomatic lunacy, i'm sure you're all aware that Joe Ching has started his sh!t (Joe Ching is what we always called the North Koreans when i was stationed in the South).
During the run-up to the Gulf War, i had religiously motivated types telling me the end of the world was nigh . . . they used the old apocolyptic signs and the nearing end of the millenium as evidence. Well, we've got it all again (less the change to daylight savings millenium), wars, rumors of war, plague, famine, pestilence, Geo W Bush . . . sigh . . .
On setanta's cheery seasonal note....merry christmas everyone.
