Re: The Iraq Questions
Craven de Kere wrote:These questions do not include one that I consider a nobrainer: Is Sadaam a bad leader? I'm working with the assumption that we agree that he is a terrible leader..
The Iraqis are starving while Saddam pockets oil revenues to build dozens of palaces for himself and weapons of mass destruction to spread his evil and bring more grief on his country.
Yes. Saddam is a bad leader.
Craven de Kere wrote:1) Do you think Iraq has WOMDs?.
You bet they do. WMD are power which is what Saddam is all about. As Saddam says, "You make people do what you want by hurting them." He wants WMD so that people will do what he wants.
Craven de Kere wrote:2) Do you think Sadaam will accept the new resolution before Friday?.
I'm posting after the fact but I'm surprised that everyone buys the idea that the Iraqi Congress is an independent body from Saddam who are free to take a divergent stand. They are not. They do what Saddam tells them to do. Remember the video of Saddam taking power where he held his government in an auditorium as he read off a list of traitors? They were taken out and shot. Saddam made other people in that auditorium shoot their colleagues to compound the horror. None of those people are going to resist Saddam openly.
It's obvious Saddam told his people to reject the resolution so that he could play the good cop later. That way he projects a false image of a democracy and he also wastes a few days delaying the UN. Saddam's strategy is always to wear down his enemy's will by degrees.
Craven de Kere wrote:3) If they are accepted do you think there will still be a war?.
Yup. The war is coming. Saddam says he has no WMD. He's lying. He has them squirrelled away somewhere. He can hide them better than the inspectors can find them. Saddam knows that, barring a bad break, he can succeed in hiding his weapons as he has before.
I think the crafty Bush administration knows where some of these weapons are and will sucker punch Saddam with the knowledge. The inspectors are likely to take a sharp turn one day and drive to a hole where the NBC weapons are hidden or stumble onto a warehouse full of Scuds mounted on their launchers, directions provided by the CIA.
Craven de Kere wrote:4) If there is a war do you think it will be easy?.
Yup. The US military is going to cut through the Iraqi military like a hot chainsaw through butter. Most of the Iraqi military is going to sit it out. Only a few of Saddam's hard core supporters will resist, those for whom life without Saddam is a death sentence. Everyone else will flee the country or cut a deal with the Americans. Some of the Iraqi military units may have their surrenders pre-arranged before the war starts.
Craven de Kere wrote:5) Do you think the post war occupation will be easy?.
It won't be any day at the beach. I expect the occupation forces will be a magnet for Islamic radicals seeking to cut off an American head. The Iranian government will certainly sponsor terrorist operations against American forces. Scattered Al Qaeda will pick off a table of American GIs catching a burger in Baghdad.
Teaching the Iraqis how to work and play well with each other so that they can have a democracy is going to be the work of a generation.
Craven de Kere wrote:6) Do you think other nations will use the precedent as an excuse for their own actions?.
Nope. The bad countries don't need an excuse. They do what they do. However, an America which will attack its enemies will inhibit countries like North Korea and Iran considerably. They respect force.
Craven de Kere wrote:7) Do you think that we will control the oil interests after the war?.
No. American oil companies will play a big part in developing Iraqi oil production but the Iraqis will reap the benefits of an exclusive arrangement to sell their oil to America.
Craven de Kere wrote:8) Do you think the occupation force will be a target for attacks?
Oh, yes. Big time.
Craven de Kere wrote:9) Do you think that this war will guarantee Bush's reelection?
Nope. It will all be over by March and the voters will forget about Bush's fabulous success by May. By the time they vote they will be asking what has he done for them lately.
Craven de Kere wrote:10) Do you think oil prices will rise?
A small temporary spike. Oil production suffers from a glut of supply.
Craven de Kere wrote:11) Do you think the economy will take a hit?
Nope. The war in Iraq will hardly register. It is insignificant compared to our giant economy.
Craven de Kere wrote:12) Do you think that Sadaam was a threat to the United States?
Yes. He absolutely tried to assassinate former President Bush in Kuwait, which certainly would have intimidated Clinton. He certainly was in the process of attacking Radio Free Europe in Prague, an American asset. Laurie Mylroie makes a reasonable case that Saddam sponsored the bombing attacks on the USS Cole and African embassies. Iraq definitely provided support to the 1993 bombing of the WTC. The FBI says it was probably an Iraqi operation. The Sep 11 attack may well have been sponsored by Iraq.
Craven de Kere wrote:13) Despite how despicable Sadaam is, how do you feel about setting a precedent of "might is right" and of using preemptive invasions to topple unsavory governments.
That precedent has already been set. The fact is that our way of life depends on men with guns and bombs to defend the perimeter of our country to allow freedom to survive. If an evil regime was mightier than us, our way of life would not survive. At the most basic level, might does make right. As Mao said, power grows from the barrel of a gun.
Tantor