Tomorrow, there's
elections in Portugal. Should be interesting: the ruling right-wing Social-Democrats (yes, Portuguese political labels are even more confusing than the other European ones) are set to lose to the left-wing Socialist opposition. This despite active involvement of former Social-Democrat leader Jose Barroso, now president of the European Commission.
What makes it all the more interesting is that the left-wing sounds rather right-wing, and vice versa (this translated from
Trouw):
Quote:Santana Lopes [the centre-right Social-Democrat Prime Minister] tried to revive his waning popularity by lowering taxes and increasing wages. Irresponsible, said President Jorge Sampaio, because the country can already only with the greatest effort meet the budget norms from Brussels. Sampaio called early elections. [..]
Unemployment in the last three years has grown from 4,1% to 7,1%, and growth is with just 1% the lowest in the EU. [..] The competition from the new EU Member States and China hits Portugal, which is specialised in un- or semi-skilled production work, hard. Trade unions are estimating that 100,000 jobs are at risk in the textile and clothing industry. Modern, technologically more advanced companies are still too few in number to compensate for the loss in the traditional sectors.
It is exactly on this point that Jose Socrates, the leader of the Socialist PS, hopes to beat his opponent [..]. Socrates promises Portugal a "technological shock therapy". The level of education has to go up drastically and the words "research and innovation" prop up in his speeches continually.
Socrates - 47, engineeer by profession - is also planning to tackle the expansive bureaucracy by replacing only one of every two civil servants who go into retirement. Budget discipline is another great ambition of the man who in 1999, as minister of infrastructure, succeeded in getting the European soccer championships of 2004 to Portugal. Without significant budget cuts Lisbon would clearly transgress the norms of the [EU] stability pact.
The appeal of Socrates appears to be catching on. He may be perceived as cold ("When does he ever thaw", a popular radio commentator exclaimed almost desperately), but he amply surpasses the flamboyant Santana Lopes in the polls.
He has to as well, because he wants to govern without the support of the small leftwing parties [Communist-lead leftists and Greens], so he can remain in governmment for four years without hassles. "That's how Portugal can get the stability that's necessary to get the economy going again."
Also this weekend, the
referendum in Spain about the European Constitution - the first of a series of referendums in different countries. The ruling Socialists have been campaigning in favour; the conservative opposition People's Party is also in favour, though their campaign for "si" has been more half-hearted, partly because they are loathe for a resounding "si" to be seen as an endorsement of the government. The only parties that have been campaigning for a "no" vote are the ex-communist "United Left", which calls the Constitution "ultra-liberal and anti-social", and the leftwing Catalan nationalists of the ERC.
There is little doubt that the ayes will have it; but the great concern is how high (or rather, low) turnout will be. Spain was chosen as the first country to have a referendum on the matter because a "yes" vote was seen as guaranteed, and that would in turn boost the chances of a "yes" in other countries voting afterwards. But the Constitution has been a hard sell in terms of eliciting much enthusiasm - just too abstract. And the lack of any political debate, a consequence of the two main rivals in Spanish politics mostly agreeing on the matter, has further boosted indifference:
Quote:Turnout will probably remain far below the 54% that went to vote in last June's European elections. In Madrid, government spokespersons seemed yesterday to already anticipate on a fiasco: a turnout of "more than a third of the voters" was suddenly called "reasonable". [..]
[Spain's ambassador in the Netherlands] Dastis does see some bright spots. He understood that the number of people who know what the Constitution is about has increased the last few days to just 50 percent. The information offensive, which existed of a bombardment of TV spots and the distribution of 20 million brochures, did help, he just wants to point out. [..]
The pro-European persuasion of the average Spaniard is not in doubt tomorrow in any case. 8,000 kilometres of highway were built after the accession in 1986, paid for 40% by what then was still called the European Community. Like manna the money from the Brussels aid funds came down the past decades: Spain received about 105 billion euro, an amount that changed the country drastically and facilitated a spectacular growth of the national income. [..]
