Czech elections have delivered a deadlock (see the results at the bottom of this post).
Again.
The problem started two elections ago, in
1998.
Then, the conservative government of Vaclav Klaus, having had a prolific six-year run, collapsed amidst corruption scandals, which even had a major part of his own Civic Democrats breaking away and establishing its own, 'clean' Freedom Union. New elections were held.
Results, however, were inconclusive. Based on them, the Civic Democrats (ODS) could only have kept on governing with the support of both its former ally, the Christian-Democrats, and the Freedom Union; an implausible perspective considering the circumstances of the elections. Vice versa, the Social-Democrats (CSSD) could only have governed with the Communists, which were still pariahs in Czech politics, or with both the Christian-Democrats and the Freedom Union, who were hesitant.
The outcome was baffling: the two major opponents, ODS and CSSD, instead got together and established a governing "opposition agreement", which had Klaus elected chairman of parliament and Social-Democrat Zeman made Prime Minister.
This conceptually tortured compromise, the result of pure power-politics, didn't exactly do wonders for public confidence in government.
However, when in
2002 the voters got their new shot, they didn't opt for "cleaning the stable" at all. Instead, they returned each of the mainstream parties with a slightly reduced number of deputies. And to add to the complication, they gave the 17 seats that those parties collectively lost to the communists, who were still beyond the pale as partner in any coalition.
The result was a near-perfect deadlock. By consequence, the country has in the past four years been governed by a deeply vulnerable centre-left coalition of Social-Democrats, Christian-Democrats and Freedom Union, which together had 101 of the 200 seats: a majority of just 1.
In practice tacit Communist support did help the government get along, but there were recurrent crises hinging on that one vote.
This time, Social-Democrat Prime Minister Jiří Paroubek openly speculated about governing with the Communists. This riled up many Czechs, who are still deeply resentful at the party - especially since the Czech Communist Party is the only one in Central Europe that did not reform itself, change its name and repudiate its past after 1989.
That wasnt the only contention in these elections. It was by far the roughest, rudest and most polarised campaign so far. Politicians even came to blows, in front of the cameras. Before/after one TV debate, the ODS leader refused to shake Pardoubek's hand .
Analysts speculated that voters, disgusted by these goings-on, would massively stay at home, or cast a protest vote, for example for the Greens. The Green Party, traditionally a ragtag grouping of leftist alternatives, had never made it into parliament yet, but revamped as a progressive liberal party running to the right of the Socialdemocrats, were now polling 10%.
The analysts were wrong.
Turnout, in fact, was, with 65%, significantly higher than in 2002. And both the ODS and CSSD actually won, +2% and +11%, respectively. The Greens made it into parliament, but with just 6% of the vote and 6 seats. And both Christian-Democrats and Communists lost - markedly.
So here they are. One third voted Social-Democrat; one-third Conservative. Close to one-seventh voted Communist, and close to one-seventh Christian-Democrat or Green.
Another deadlock, but this one even more perfect than the previous one. Social-Democrats + Communists: exactly 100 seats. ODS + Christian-Democrats and Greens: exactly 100 seats.
Oh, and in case you were thinking you're smart: Social-Democrats + Christian-Democrats and Greens: less than 100 seats, not enough for a majority.
Meanwhile, Pardoubek is proclaiming the elections weren't fair and proper and making comparisons with the Communist take-over of 1948, while the Greens in turn are comparing his remarks with the show-trial rhetorics of the 50s.
Thats another fine mess the Czechs got themselves into..
Code:Civic Democratic Party (ODS) 35.4 (+10,9) 81 (+23)
Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) 32.3 (+ 2,1) 74 (+ 4)
Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia 12.8 (- 5,7) 26 (-15)
Christian Democratic Union (KDU-CSL) 7.2 (- 7,1) 13 (-18)
(compared to 2002 Christian Democrat/Freedom Union alliance)
Green Party 6.3 (+ 3,9) 6 (+ 6)
European Democrats (SNK) 2.1 (+ 2.1) 0
Pictures say more than a thousand words ... (but I have to link them in like this because the images themselves wont deeplink)
ODS supporters in Prague react to the ruling Social Democratic Party's preliminary election results
Prime Minister and Social Democrat leader Jiri Paroubek (C) and his fellow party members Finance Minister Bohuslav Sobotka (L) and Social Affairs Minister Zdenek Skromach address the media after the Czech Republic's general election