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FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Wed 28 Sep, 2005 07:24 am
A democratic body expressing appreciation for its own critics - isnt that how things should be?

Quote:
Parliament nominates press freedom group for Sakharov Prize

The European Parliament has nominated Reporters without Borders [RSF], a group defending press freedom, for its annual Sakharov Prize. [..]

The president of the Parliament's foreign affairs committee, Elmar Brok, on Tuesday (27 September) announced the three nominees for the prize, which seeks to promote freedom of thought around the globe.

The candidates who made it to the shortlist had been proposed by the socialist, conservative and liberal groups in the parliament, and the winner will be picked by the Parliament's conference of group presidents on 27 October.

The socialist PES candidate is the Nigerian female lawyer Hauwa Ibrahim, who defends women and youngsters in her country sentenced to stoning, whipping or amputation under Sharia law.

Meanwhile, the [conservative/christian-democratic] EPP's choice for the Sakharov prize is Ladies in White, a group of women which fights for the release of their husbands who are political prisoners in Cuba.

The liberal nominee, the NGO Reporters without Borders, told the EUobserver it is "very happy" with its nomination.

The group defends journalists and other media professionals around the world facing imprisonment, persecution and even torture.

But while one main focus of Reporters without Borders' work lies in autocratic countries or dictatorships like China, Belarus and Cuba, the NGO has not shed away from criticising European countries either.

Read on for examples of RSF criticism of EU countries...
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Mon 3 Oct, 2005 02:37 pm
UN chief war crimes prosecutor Carla del Ponte said Monday that Croatia is now fully cooperating with war crimes investigations by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia [official website], a key turnaround expected to help restart stalled EU membership negotiations.

UN press release

Zagreb's failure to hand over top war crimes suspect Ante Gotovina led to the delayed talks but Del Ponte pointed out that Crotia has for weeks "been cooperating fully with us and is doing everything it can" to apprehend Gotovina.
On the run since 2001, Gotovina is believed to have committed war crimes against ethnic Serbs during the Serbo-Croatian war. Authorities in Croatia deny knowledge of his whereabouts.

AFP (via Yahoo news): Croatia said cooperating with warcrimes court, EU talks eyed
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 3 Oct, 2005 02:45 pm
Deal reached on EU-Turkey talks
The Turkish government has accepted the terms set by the European Union for membership negotiations to begin.
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said Ankara had reached agreement on a draft deal, and was flying to Luxembourg for the start of the talks.

The move follows more than 24 hours of fraught discussions among EU nations.

Members agreed on the terms of entry talks, after Austria withdrew a demand that Turkey should be offered an option short of full membership.

Turkey had flatly rejected such an option.

Mr Gul told reporters at Ankara airport that an "historic point has been reached today", adding that Turkey "has embarked on a new era".
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Tue 4 Oct, 2005 01:45 pm
Quote:
EU says Croatia talks offer hope for Balkans

Tue Oct 4, 2005 8:28 PM BST

By Mark John and Marcin Grajewski

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - By launching entry talks with Croatia, the European Union has shown that it remains committed to integrating the western Balkans despite fears to the contrary in the region, the EU's enlargement chief said on Tuesday.

The former Yugoslav republic began membership negotiations in the early hours of Tuesday, shortly after U.N. war crimes prosecutor Carla Del Ponte delivered the green light by saying Zagreb was cooperating fully with her tribunal.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said the historic event, 10 years after the region's bloodiest war ended, should encourage other Balkan nations to pursue democratic and free market reforms to fulfil their European ambitions.

"We can say that after a long night, there's a new dawn now for the Western Balkans," Rehn told a news conference.

The start of talks "erased any doubts" that the region -- which includes Serbia and Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia and Albania -- was on the road to closer European integration.

"The negotiations will be strict and fair," Rehn said, acknowledging "enlargement fatigue" in western Europe after the EU took in 10 new members, mainly east European, last year.

The launch of Croatia's talks was held up for hours on Monday until EU foreign ministers ended 40 hours of wrangling and agreed a mandate for entry negotiations with Turkey, which has become a focus of public opposition to further expansion.

The main hold-out on Turkey was Austria, which is Croatia's strongest supporter in the 25-nation bloc.

The United States, which helped rescue Turkey's EU bid, said it supported Croatia's integration with European and trans-Atlantic institutions but stressed that it wanted Zagreb to hunt down fugitive war crimes suspect Ante Gotovina.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters Washington welcomed the "agreement that anything less than full cooperation with the (Hague court) at any stage would affect the negotiation process".

SERBIA ON FIRST RUNG

Serbia will begin its journey towards EU membership next Monday when the two sides begin talks on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement that will give Serbia increased aid and trade preferences.

Similar talks with Bosnia were put on hold in September after the Bosnian Serb parliament rejected a plan to unify the police forces in the ethnically divided country.

Rehn urged the Bosnians to rise to the challenge so talks can start before the 10th anniversary in November of the Dayton peace accords that ended the 1992-95 Bosnian war.

On Croatia, Rehn said he would visit Zagreb next week to discuss technical details of the negotiations, which the country's leaders hope to complete by 2009.

They would start with "screening", assessing the compatibility of Croatian laws with EU legislation, which should last about one year, Rehn said.

He declined to speculate how long the negotiations could last. "The date is not so relevant," he said.

Croatia will still be expected to keep hunting for Gotovina, a former general indicted for alleged crimes against humanity.

Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader vowed to pursue the hunt for Gotovina, who Del Ponte believes is in Croatia or Bosnia.

Rehn said the Dutch and French voters' rejection of the EU constitution created a technical problem for Croatian accession. The charter would have replaced the Nice treaty, which allows for only 27 EU members -- the current 25 plus Bulgaria and Romania, due to join in 2007.

"We should either have the constitutional treaty in force or we should decide how we amend or develop the provisions of the current treaty," Rehn said.
Source
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Tue 4 Oct, 2005 04:44 pm
nimh wrote:

There's always a lot of comparisons going on between the (high) continental European and low US unemployment rates. The difference is then used as an argument to "prove" the superiority of the US economic model.

But as you point out, the whole argument is built on quicksand, because in the US they just dont count the long-term unemployed. Hey, I can get low unemployment rates that way too: just dont count half of them.

In Holland, the unemployment rate includes all those from 15 to 64 years of age without work, or with work for less than 12 hours a week, who are actively looking for paid work for twelve hours a week or more.

In Belgium too, the definition is based on that of the International Labour Bureau (thats a translation from Dutch, may be different name in English): all persons of 15 and older who a) have no work, b) are available for work and c) are actively looking for work.

The definition is thus wider in two senses. First, there is no end in time to benefits. In Holland for example you go from unemployment benefits to welfare and on both of them you are counted in the unemployment rate, if you are looking and available for work. Secondly, even those who do not receive benefits but have registered as looking for work and currently do not have any, are counted.

So yeah, even just the difference in definition alone explains much of the variation in unemployment rates between US and continental Europe.

(In Holland the unemployment rate now is 6-7%).


So far I don't see any material difference in the definition of the unemployed that you have described, compared to the definition used in the USA. The fact is that throught the developed world unemployment statistics exclude classes of people who are not considered to be seeking work at all. I observe economists widely using economic data, including unemployment ststistics, without any reference to significant differences in the standards on which they are based. If I am not mistaken, Germany recently began to include certain additional classes of unemployed in their rates to bring them more in compliance with those used by Britain, the U.S. and other countries.

I do not believe you have any foundation for believing the differences in unemployment in Europe and America are an illusion based on looser reporting standards here. On the contrary we have a rather larger underground cash economy here with numerous immigrant workers whose productive employment is unrecorded and not counted at all.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 4 Oct, 2005 10:27 pm
The Foreign Labor Statistics (FLS) program provides international comparisons of hourly compensation costs; productivity and unit labor costs; labor force, employment and unemployment rates; and consumer prices. The comparisons relate primarily to the major industrial countries, but other countries are included in certain measures.

Because statistical concepts and methods vary from country to country, international comparisons of statistical data can be misleading. The Bureau of Labor Statistics attempts to derive meaningful comparisons by selecting a conceptual framework for comparative purposes; analyzing foreign statistical series and selecting those which most nearly match the desired concepts; and adjusting statistical series, where necessary and feasible, for greater inter-country comparability. (Consumer prices are not adjusted).

General Overview
Economic News Releases and Special Data Tables
Publications and Other Documentation
Get Detailed FLS Statistics
Related Links
Frequently Asked Questions
Contact Us
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 12:07 am
georgeob1 wrote:
So far I don't see any material difference in the definition of the unemployed that you have described, compared to the definition used in the USA.


I'd always thought that the time factor was one of those.

Thanks for clearing that, George.


georgeob1 wrote:
If I am not mistaken, Germany recently began to include certain additional classes of unemployed in their rates to bring them more in compliance with those used by Britain, the U.S. and other countries.


You are correct, but still 48.3% of those registered [in June] as unemployed by the Federal Employment Agency were not considered unemployed according to the ILO concept.
Source

In 2004, Germany's unemployment rate using the U.S. measure would have been just under 9.0 percent, with the bulk of the unemployment concentrated in former East Germany. The area that used to West Germany would have an unemployment rate somewhat over 6.0 percent using the U.S. measure, not very different from the current unemployment rate in the United States. Source
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 03:21 am
nimh wrote:
There's always a lot of comparisons going on between the (high) continental European and low US unemployment rates. The difference is then used as an argument to "prove" the superiority of the US economic model.

But as you point out, the whole argument is built on quicksand, because in the US they just dont count the long-term unemployed. Hey, I can get low unemployment rates that way too: just dont count half of them.

I can see why you would want to believe that, but it's just not true. The OECD maintains a series of unemployment statistics that corrects for such differences in the way countries count the unemployed. (PDF here.) As of July 2005, the latest month they have standardized data for, unemployment is 5.0% in America, 9.5% in Germany, 7.9% in the EU15. The un-standardized numbers, as reported by the Economist, are 4.9%, 10.7%, and 8.6% respectively. So as you can see, the OECD's standardization of the underlying statistics changes the picture in the EU's favor a bit, but not nearly enough to subvert this particular argument for the American model.

There are other arguments against the American model that you may find worth a try. For example, you might argue that introducing the American model to the EU would reduce unemployment at the cost of adding lots of badly paying jobs, and that European workers are better off unemployed than being WalMart greeters. I would still disagree with you if you argued that way, but this is a view that an intellectually consistent left-winger can hold. But the view you expressed above -- that American unemployment only looks lower because of aggressive accounting -- is not.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 05:28 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
So far I don't see any material difference in the definition of the unemployed that you have described, compared to the definition used in the USA.

I'd always thought that the time factor was one of those.

Thanks for clearing that, George.

Same here re: believing the time factor to be an issue. I was one of those who, as this useful page has it, erroneously believed "that to get these figures on unemployment the [US] Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs." Since those benefits are time-limited in a way European benefits are not, that would introduce a huge discrepancy.

However, I am also indebted to Walter here. Because he pointed out how significant a discrepancy - a "material difference", I'd say - there nonetheless remains between the German definition/registration, as example, and the American one. One that would lower German unemployment rates by 1-2%:

Walter Hinteler wrote:
In 2004, Germany's unemployment rate using the U.S. measure would have been just under 9.0 percent, with the bulk of the unemployment concentrated in former East Germany. The area that used to West Germany would have an unemployment rate somewhat over 6.0 percent using the U.S. measure, not very different from the current unemployment rate in the United States. Source

Here my point re-emerges in its most basic appearance. I mean: if West-German unemployment, when using identical criteria, is a mere percentage point higher than US unemployment, what does that then say about the purported failure of the "Old Europe" economic model compared to the purportedly vibrant US model? Since the old West-Germany was pretty much the poster child for the welfare-state-type 'social market economy', and unemployment is generally used as one of the most definining evidences of the failure of that system?

And to take up Thomas's suggestion, the West-German jobs are likely better-paid jobs as well...

I'm guessing Holland's unemployment rate is calculated much the way it is in Germany, rather than how it's done in America - what with EU convergence in definitions and so on. That would mean that since in the Netherlands, the official unemployment rate is already just at 6-7%, if applying the US definition/calculation would take it down like it does the German one, it'd end up pretty much on par with America's 5%-rate. Despite Holland's obviously more social-democratic economic order.

Again, what does that mean for the use of comparative unemployment rates as evidence for the purported superiority of the US model?
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 06:03 am
nimh wrote:
Here my point re-emerges in its most basic appearance. I mean: if West-German unemployment, when using identical criteria, is a mere percentage point higher than US unemployment, what does that then say about the purported failure of the "Old Europe" economic model compared to the purportedly vibrant US model?

For one thing, that the model, applied to France, has led to 10% unemployment, which is somehow not so vibrant. Applied to East Germany, the model has boosted the unemployment rate there to figures in the high teens. Perhaps more importantly, it has caused a pollitical fallout of driving people into the hands of neo-fascist and ex-communist parties. Neither of this strikes me as attractive.

nimh wrote:
Again, what does that mean for the use of comparative unemployment rates as evidence for the purported superiority of the US model?

That you have to compare apples with apples, not with oranges. No offense, but the Netherlands are pretty small. I guess it wouldn't be hard to cut a Holland-sized chunk out the USA whose demographical features confirm whatever point you wish to make about the USA's economic system. That's not fair. The fairest comparison I can think of is between the USA and the EU15 -- two territories that have no communist past to deal with, whose populations are large and about equally sized, providing little opportunity for cherry-picking. As it happens, this view supports George's and my view, and contradicts yours and Walter's.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 06:11 am
Thomas wrote:
The fairest comparison I can think of is between the USA and the EU15 -- two territories that have no communist past to deal with, whose populations are large and about equally sized, providing little opportunity for cherry-picking.


So comparing one country with 15 independent countries is not comparing apples with oranges?
The difference here is what exactly?
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 06:14 am
Apropos the long-term unemployed: The page you quoted at the Bureau of Labor statistics says that while insurance data only runs up to one year of unemployment, they also say they are getting data on the long-term unemployed from other sources. Moreover, they state their official definition of unemployment, and it turns out to cover the long-term unemployed: "Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work."

So this particular point appears to be a non-issue.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 06:23 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
So comparing one country with 15 independent countries is not comparing apples with oranges?
The difference here is what exactly?

Reduced opportunities for cherry-picking. Examples of cherry-picking in this thread would include nimh singling out West Germany because East Germany is ideolgically inconvenient for nimh and singling out the Netherlands because they are ideologically convenient. Examples on my side would be singling out East Germany and France because they are ideologically convenient for me. I'm sure we all could make up many other examples if we try. More generally, I don't think there is a comparison here that is 100% apples-to-apples, but there are better and worse approximations to this ideal. In my opinion, and the comparison I proposed is one of the closer approximation. If you know a comparison that comes closer still, I'm listening.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 06:23 am
I don't know if you addressed me with your last response, but if I ever wrote that long-term unemployed are not within the number given in Germany, I defininately made a mistake/typo/had a bad moment or similar.

It is exactly my point that these persons are within that number.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 06:31 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
I don't know if you addressed me with your last response, but if I ever wrote that long-term unemployed are not within the number given in Germany, I defininately made a mistake/typo/had a bad moment or similar.

It is exactly my point that these persons are within that number.

I was responding to nimh. My point is that according the BLS page he quoted, the long-term unemployed are covered by the USA's official definition too. The difference, as I understand that page, is that they get their data on short term unemployment from the unemployment insurance agency and the household survey, data on long term unemployment from the household survey, but no data on long term unemployment from the insurance agency. In other words, nimh's own source contradicts his claim that America's official statistics do not count the long-term unemployed.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 06:38 am
Quote:
Employment:
Employed are all those, who during the reference week:
did any work at all (at least one hour) as paid employees, worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or who worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of the family;
all those who were not working but who had jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent because of vacation, illness, bad weather, childcare problems, maternity or paternity leave, labormanagement dispute, job training, or other family or personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off or were seeking other jobs.
Also included in the employed are:
persons without wage and salary work who were trying to establish their own enterprise;
full or part-time workers seeking other work during the reference week;
persons who performed some work for pay or profit during the reference week but were subject to compulsory schooling, retired and receiving a pension, registered as job seekers at an employment office or receiving unemployment benefits;
full or part-time students working full-time or part-time; e) paid apprentices and trainees;
citizens of other countries who reside in the United Sates but not on the premises of an embassy;
persons residing in the United States but working in Mexico or Canada. Excluded are persons whose only activity consisted of work around their own house (painting, repairing, or own home housework) or volunteer work for religious, charitable, and other organizations.
Unemployment:
Unemployed persons are all those who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporarily illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment some time during the 4-week-period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed. Also included in the unemployed are: a) persons on temporary lay-off without pay; b) persons who were seeking and available for work but were subject to compulsory schooling or were retired and receiving a pension; c) full or part-time students seeking full or part-time work.
Source


You see, Thomas, you really might be correct.

However: when you look at the definition of 'Employed' - "Employed are all those, who during the reference week:
did any work at all (at least one hour) as paid employees" - well, you can work here (and in most European states) up to 15 hours per week and are still 'unemployed'.

(And you can earn up to 100 Euros without loosing a single cent of your 'state money', which you get as an unemployed - if you earn more, it's reduced graded.)
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 07:08 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
You see, Thomas, you really might be correct.

Thanks!

Walter Hinteler wrote:
However: when you look at the definition of 'Employed' - "Employed are all those, who during the reference week:
did any work at all (at least one hour) as paid employees" - well, you can work here (and in most European states) up to 15 hours per week and are still 'unemployed'.

I agree. This is why the OECD statisticians accomplished a non-trivial task when they created an internationally comparable definition of unemployment. It makes sense to use this definition, but the difference it makes is not that dramatic, as I showed in my earlier post about it.

*****

One last point about the long-term unemployed: In the statistical annex to its employment outlook, the OECD also publishes data about long-term unemployment. (See table G of this document (PDF).) In particular, they give two figures for longterm unemployment as a percentage of total unemployment. (>6 months and > 12 months) Here the figures are:

The 'OECD employment outlook' wrote:
USA > 6 months: 21.9%; USA > 12 months: 12.7%;
EU15 >6 months: 60.4%; EU15 > 12 months: 42%.

So according to the OECD's internationally comparable figures, looking at long term unemployment makes the USA appear much better than the EU. If an evil statistician in America wanted to define his country's unemployment rate down, he would have little incentive to start by ignoring the long-term unemployed. This incentive would be much stronger for an evil statistician from Europe.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 07:34 am
Thomas wrote:
I was responding to nimh. My point is that according the BLS page he quoted, the long-term unemployed are covered by the USA's official definition too.

I already admitted as much a page ago, before your post. I provided the link to go with the admission, as you can see:

nimh wrote:
Walter Hinteler wrote:
I'd always thought that the time factor was one of those. [..]

Same here re: believing the time factor to be an issue. I was one of those who, as this useful page has it, erroneously believed "that [..]
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 07:36 am
(Anybody else have difficulties with the new feature, "can't edit posts that have been responded to"? The grammar in my last couple of posts is majorly embarrassing, and there's nothing I can do about it.)
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 5 Oct, 2005 07:45 am
nimh wrote:

I already admitted as much a page ago, before your post. I provided the link to go with the admission, as you can see:

Sorry, I misunderstood you then. I thought you were posting it in support of your earlier position. My mistake.

May I ask what your current position is regarding the comparison of European and American unemployment rates? In particular, do you still think the superiority of the USA over Europe is mostly a statistical artifact?
0 Replies
 
 

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