STRATFOR week of 6/19/03

Guerrilla War in Iraq
June 18, 2003

The United States is now clearly involved in a guerrilla war in the Sunni regions of Iraq. As a result, U.S. forces are engaging in counterinsurgency operations, which historically have proven most difficult and trying -- for both American forces and American politics. Suppressing a guerrilla operation without alienating the indigenous population represents an extreme challenge to the United States that at this point does not appear avoidable -- and the seriousness of which does not appear to be broadly understood.

Europe Changes Foreign Policy Tune
June 17, 2003

Recent statements from European leaders on Iran and WMD, as well as on Cuba, are bringing Europe into closer alignment with the Washington's foreign policy priorities. They also signify a recognition that openly challenging the United States on Iraq was a strategic failure that threatened European unity.

Iraq: Questions Surround Resistance Movement
June 17, 2003

Forty U.S. soldiers and more than 100 Iraqis have died in guerrilla attacks and the subsequent U.S. counteroffensive operations. These activities point to a major resistance movement under way, despite the fact that U.S. President George W. Bush announced the end of combat operations in Iraq on May 1. The thrust of this resistance appears to be centered northwest of Baghdad, in an area primarily inhabited by Sunni -- but it is yet to be seen whether this resistance is a significant threat to U.S. plans for postwar Iraq.

Iraq: Seasoned Guerrillas Likely Not Behind Postwar Attacks
June 13, 2003

The June 13 attack on a U.S. armored patrol, in which the attackers suffered heavy losses and the United States suffered none, betrays a lack of guerrilla training. It is unlikely that professional soldiers and guerrillas are behind the majority of these actions, save a few more professional-grade sniper attacks and a shooting attack on a U.S. gunship. This likely indicates that U.S. forces are not yet in serious trouble in Iraq.

Source: A Strategy for Kurdish Statehood Emerges
June 12, 2003

Kurdish leaders reportedly gathered recently in northern Iraq to lay out a strategy for the establishment of an independent Kurdistan. The plan, however, hinges on the assumption that the U.S. occupation of Iraq will disrupt the region.

WMD
June 05, 2003

The inability to discover weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has created a political crisis in the United States and Britain. Within the two governments, there are recriminations and brutal political infighting over responsibility. Stratfor warned in February that the unwillingness of the U.S. government to articulate its real, strategic reasons for the war -- choosing instead to lean on WMD as the justification -- would lead to a deep crisis at some point. That moment seems to be here.

U.S. To Remain Iraqi Stability Guarantor
June 04, 2003

The United States is working to institutionalize intra-Iraqi cooperation to support the U.S. civilian administration in the country. The reality, however, is that Iraq is a hodgepodge of competing ethnic-religious-tribal groups -- and a U.S. presence will be needed for a long time to prevent civil war.