STRATFOR week of 6-7-03

June 05, 2003

The inability to discover weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has created a political crisis in the United States and Britain. Within the two governments, there are recriminations and brutal political infighting over responsibility. Stratfor warned in February that the unwillingness of the U.S. government to articulate its real, strategic reasons for the war -- choosing instead to lean on WMD as the justification -- would lead to a deep crisis at some point. That moment seems to be here.

U.S. To Remain Iraqi Stability Guarantor
June 04, 2003

The United States is working to institutionalize intra-Iraqi cooperation to support the U.S. civilian administration in the country. The reality, however, is that Iraq is a hodgepodge of competing ethnic-religious-tribal groups -- and a U.S. presence will be needed for a long time to prevent civil war.

The Al-Sadr Movement: A New Player in Iraqi Politics?
May 25, 2003

A newcomer to the political scene in Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr, reportedly has begun appointing imams to mosques in Baghdad and taking charge of hospitals as well. This, coupled with a lack of visible resistance from his rivals, could signify that al-Sadr's group is emerging as a political player among Iraqi Shiites. Considering that al-Sadr is young and went underground for many years, it is puzzling that neither his rivals nor the United States is openly challenging him.


Iraq Reconstruction Projects Could Ease Japan's Economic Woes
May 23, 2003

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will meet officially with U.S. President George W. Bush at his Texas ranch on May 23. Among the topics of conversation will be Japan's role in the reconstruction of Iraq as reward for its support of the U.S.-led campaign. An important U.S. ally that is in desperate need of economic reconstruction, Japan might receive some special consideration.