4
   

BOONE PICKENS PREDICTS OIL PRICE OF$80/BARREL

 
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Jun, 2008 04:17 pm
steve wrote :

Quote:
We are so used to the idea of plentiful cheap liquid energy and machines to convert it into useful work...that we dont understand its true value.

We take it all for granted and its going to be a hard lesson for some to learn.


you are putting it mildly , steve . there are plenty of people who think it's their "god given" right or even duty to use as much energy as possible .

we noticed just today that there are fewer of the big , gas-guzzling (and noisy !) powerboats on the st. lawrence river Laughing .
suits me just fine .
hbg
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jun, 2008 12:53 pm
thats good news hamburger. Have a quiet one.

btw who is this T Bone Steak Pickens bloke?
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jun, 2008 01:51 pm
steve :

a little info on T BOONE (a pretty wily operator , i'd say . he now thinks that the oilboom is peaking and is switching to alternative energy investments . guess he wants to be ahead of the pack . he's made his money in oil : "time to move on and shear some new sheep " :wink: )

find him hiding here :

T BOONE

hope your day went well . in eastern ontario it's still a little on the cool side - around 20 - 22 C - but brillianr sunshine .
hbg
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jun, 2008 01:57 pm
I didn't realize that this thread was started back in 2006, and read the first post saying it would be $80/barrel. I thought to myself - even today - that that might be a good possibility considering the fact that most people are having problems with putting food on the table while paying over $4/gallon for gas.

Somewhere about now, demand for gasoline should be dropping. People can't continue to eat and put $4/gallon gas into their vehicles while wages remain stagnant. Something has to give, and it's my prediction people will want to have food over gasoline.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Jun, 2008 02:00 pm
This weekes BArrons had an article about the "Oil Bubble" and how the price is being manipulated . Barrons predicts oil at 90/barrel by end of 2008
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Jun, 2008 02:12 pm
for a good laugh or some heavy weeping have a look at this article from 2004 : COUNTERCURRENTS

from the linked article :

Quote:
How will the weaker dollar affect oil prices? Philip K Verleger, the dean of US oil market analysts and a visiting fellow at the Institute for International Economics, suggests that "oil-exporting countries may decide to adjust their price band to reflect the falling value of the dollar". If the dollar continues to slide, he warns, we could see oil prices rising from the current $38.18 a barrel to a record high of $40 by midsummer.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2008 05:25 pm
india wants to secure future oil supplies and is considering large investment in canadian oil sands projects .
they are probably concerned about the security of oil-supply from the middle-east and want to ensure backup .
since india has accumulated U.S. dollar reserves they now seem to be looking for a sound investment .
should we welcome investment from india ?
i guess their money is as good as any other - and they are very polite and shrewd business people .

Quote:
India eyes oil sands investments




source :
INDIA TAKING LOOK AT CANADA
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2008 06:10 pm
hbg, I agree that the Indians are shrewd business people, and their interest to invest in Canadian oil sand projects with their accumulated US dollar reserves probably rates up there with Berkshire Hathaway.

Got an extra dollar or two to invest?
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2008 07:09 pm
investing in tar sands would involve the same technology as developing the Oil SHales of Wyoming Colo and Montana.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2008 07:47 pm
c. i. wrote :

Quote:
Got an extra dollar or two to invest?


i have a U.S. $2 bill - isn't it called a "deuce" ? - to invest ; will that be enough for a start ?
hbg
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jul, 2008 05:16 am
What people fail to understand is that while oil may appear to be excruciatingly expensive its partly because we dont appreciate its true value in terms of what it can do for us. When there's not enough of the stuff to go around, and people are forced to consider the energy they can extract from other sources, the true value and convenience of the energy from a barrel of oil becomes apparent. Maybe some people even regret that we have squandered half the world's endowment of oil with such profligacy.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jul, 2008 09:44 am
Steve, Man is a consumer of goods and services without much question as to its value until it begins to hurt their pocketbook.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jul, 2008 12:18 pm
indeed

and remember those easter island heads?

kept building them until there was no more trees

then they (inhabitants) died.

I dont think we are any more clever. imho
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Jul, 2008 05:30 pm
be an eco-friendly wine drinker :

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00372/v385_372880a.jpg

make sure your wine is shipped by sailship !
CHEERS !
hbg

Quote:
A British schooner docked in Penzance yesterday carrying 30,000 bottles of wine on a voyage that enthusiasts believe will herald a return to wind power in merchant shipping. When Tesco started ferrying wine by barge last year, 50 lorries were taken off the road each week. Three journeys are made each week along the 40-mile stretch from Liverpool to Manchester, carrying 600,000 litres of wine on each trip


DRINK UP AND SAVE THE ENVIRONMENT ! :wink:

source :
WINE BY SAILSHIP
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Jul, 2008 06:27 pm
Steve is spot on about the price of oil, and how Americans have squandered it for too many decades. Even after the oil embargo and shortage back in the seventies, where all of us lined up at the gas station to fill up was short-lived. We were back buying gas-guzzling station wagons (SUVs), trucks, and 8-cylinder cars. (I even purchased a new Cad, and loved that car!) Everybody else on this planet were already paying over $4/gallon, while Americans paid less than $2/gallon.

Have we learned anything? Nope! A very small percentage have purchased hybrids and smaller cars, but we still see those 25 foot vacation homes plying the country. Something is wrong.

I now get 15 mpg in the city, and about 28 mpg on the freeway; it's an improvement over all my previous cars, but we're still the gas guzzler of this world. Lucky for me, I drive only about 5,000 miles/year. So averaging out current gas prices (premium) my annual cost will be a little over $1,200. Some people are spending $500/month on gas.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Jul, 2008 07:31 pm
my next car :

http://www.history.rochester.edu/steam/brown/sailing-car.jpg


Quote:
Following the horse-power car came the Meteor. This was a sailingvehicle, the invention of Mr. Evan Thomas, who was, perhaps, the first person, as already mentioned, who advocated railroads in Baltimore. The Meteor required a good gale to drive it, and would only run when the wind was what sailors call abaft, or on the quarter. Head-winds were fatal to it, and Mr. Thomas was afraid to trust a strong side-wind lest the vehicle might be upset; so it rarely made its appearance except a northwester was blowing, when it would be dragged out to the farther end of the Mount C:lair embankment, and come back, literally with flying colors. The Baltimore and Ohio Railroad being the first in operation in this country, and almost the first in the world for the transportation of passengers and merchandise, of course was visited by crowds from almost every section of the United States, as well as from parts of Europe. Among them was Baron IErudener, envoy from Russia, who, by invitation of Mr. Thomas, made an escursion in the sailing- car, managing the sail himself. On his return from the trip, he declared he had never before travelled so agreeably. Mr. Thomas caused a model sailing-car to be constructed, which he presented to the baron, with the respects of the company, to be forwarded to the emperor. This courtesy on the part of Mr. Thomas was handsomely acknowledged by the baron.

0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Jul, 2008 07:46 pm
hbg, You need a wind/solar energy car - just in case. Have a bike pump just in case. LOL
hamburger
 
  2  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 05:45 pm
@cicerone imposter,
in case any american thinks that the price of oil is too high ... you might want to read this article .
perhaps you'll enjoy the point of view of THE MAN THAT HELPED START ALBERTA'S OILBOOM - he thinks it's time TO SLOW DOWN , but U.S. treasury secretary snow didn't agree with his suggestion to slow down .

btw he also thinks that canada needs to guard its WATER RESOURCES - not just the oil !

and in case you think this fellow is a socialist , you are wrong !
he is a CONSERVATIVE of the old style , a PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE - which true canadian conservatives always were - until the party got highjacked by big money !

since i think the article might not be available for free much longer , i'll print it out in full .

if anyone wants to discuss this topic , we can do that at your convenience .
hbg

link :
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080825.rmlougheed/BNStory/specialROBmagazine/home

Quote:
The second coming of Peter Lougheed


Alberta's Conservative dynasty and booming oil sands industry are getting an upbraiding from an unlikely source"the man who started it all

Globe and Mail Update

August 28, 2008 at 5:47 PM EDT

The man with the grey hair, the bad knees and the intense blue eyes made his way to the front desk of the Peter Lougheed Centre in Calgary. The young nurse on the overnight shift looked up and asked why he was there. Knee replacement, he said. Name? she asked. Peter Lougheed, he said.

"I guess the shift was changing," Lougheed recalls, "and the gal at the desk, she'd been working all night. I could just see that flash in the eyes: 'Have I got a nut case on my hands, at a quarter to 7 in the morning?' "
He laughs with delight. "It was a 10-second thing, but I saw her looking: Where the hell's the orderly?"

After all, why would she know anything about him? It's been more than 20 years since Peter Lougheed stepped down as premier of Alberta. A whole generation has been born and grown up since he disappeared from the headlines. He's no longer the guardian of Alberta's riches against the depredations of the federal government, no longer the voice of the new West going toe to toe with Pierre Trudeau, no longer the man sought by Progressive Conservatives across the country to head the party""the best leader we never had" is what older Tories still say.

Even so, the nurse might have recognized him, for there is a new Peter Lougheed. At 80, he has returned to the public arena to poke friends and foes, Albertans, Canadians and Americans, with a very sharp stick. In particular, he is poking relentlessly and angrily at the full-speed-ahead modus operandi of the oil industry and the Alberta government.



From his 47th-floor corner office at the law firm Bennett Jones, Lougheed has a commanding view of what matters in Alberta's business world. Up there, it's hard at first to share his anxiety. The man himself is relaxed in shirt sleeves, laughing and smiling, even when he is remarking on the number of people in Calgary who are distinctly unhappy about the things he is saying. With that, he gestures toward the array of gleaming office towers on 4th and 5th Avenues, which house just about every oil company you have ever heard of, and then some.

But then it is as though the man who once ruled it all with such confidence is suddenly reminded that neither he nor anyone else can control a provincial economy overheated by the full-bore development of the oil sands. "Would somebody please outline to me the advantages of our doing it this way?" he asks. "For me, an Albertan? What are they? Can you give me a couple of them? What do I as an Albertan gain by this mad rush up there?"

The first evidence that Lougheed was emerging from political hibernation came at a barbecue he attended at the Calgary home of the United States consul general in the summer of 2005. It was an impressive gathering. The U.S. ambassador, David Wilkins, had flown in from Ottawa, as had then-finance minister Ralph Goodale.

The guest of honour was John Snow, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury.

Snow had arrived in Canada to discuss the oil sands. Alberta was already shipping more than a million barrels of crude oil to the United States every day; Washington, anxious about energy security, wanted more. Lougheed was invited because of his stature in both business and politics"and because of his friendship with the United States. He was, after all, one of the instigators of Canada-U.S. free trade.


Snow and Lougheed got to chatting during the evening. For Snow, it was a shock when the former premier said Canada should consider exporting its oil to China, India or other Asian markets. Why not, Lougheed asked: It's Alberta's oil.


Snow was visibly surprised and upset. He protested that the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement forbid sales of surplus oil to China, that Canada is obliged to sell to the U.S. Lougheed interjected: Having been on the Canadian team that negotiated NAFTA, he knew for a fact that Snow was wrong.

As he recounts the conversation with the agitated Treasury Secretary, Lougheed smiles the smile of a man who does not mind the prospect of a fight, even with a friend and neighbour: "It was quite an unusual dinner. It was polite, but, you know…"

However, after the smile, Lougheed acknowledges there is contention regarding NAFTA's proportionality clause, which specifies that Canada must not reduce the share of its oil production that it ships to the U.S. The clause was inserted in NAFTA because Canada thought it needed a guaranteed market for its oil"what a difference a few years make!
Lougheed seems ready to dispute the American interpretation of the clause; that is a fight that would involve the federal government as well as Alberta. To the simple question of whether Alberta can resist the American pressure for guaranteed oil, he has a simple answer: "Sure. We own it. We're in a seller's market."

Within a few months of that private barbecue, Lougheed decided to become a public man again. At first, he sounded off about water, warning Canadians that the stuff is too precious to waste or even to sell. Specifically, he said, Canadians will have to protect their water from a thirsty neighbour. The United States, he said, "will be coming after our fresh water aggressively within three to five years. We must prepare, to ensure we aren't trapped in an ill-advised response. It would be a major mistake for Canada to handle this issue badly. With climate change and growing needs, Canadians will need all the fresh water we can conserve, particularly in the western provinces."

That warning was delivered in November, 2005, which means that, by Lougheed's reckoning, the U.S. will come after our water any day now.
"They are coming. And they are coming in a very strong way," he says. "How strong a charge? When it comes to water, people become emotional. It will be very strong. Maybe I am wrong, but it could be a proposal that includes threats of retaliation to our country.

"I hope that when the time comes, Canada will be ready. The reality is that fresh water is more valuable than crude oil."

Wait a minute. Is that Maude Barlow talking? Lougheed's assertion seems almost a heresy in the province that, beginning under the selfsame Peter Lougheed, has built its present and future prosperity on roughnecking, not tree hugging.

But memories are short. The long, laissez-faire rule of Ralph Klein has obscured the Lougheed record: Lougheed led a version of the Conservative party that embraced state planning of the economy. Indeed, the oil sands were seeded by the Lougheed government's 50% investment in the Syncrude project. It is no accident that Lougheed started speaking up as the Klein era appeared to be coming to an end. He went public with his concerns, he says, "because I felt and still feel strongly that the public policy of Alberta is wrong, and that they're trying to do too much, too quickly," he says.

Ever polite, Lougheed tries not to blame Ralph Klein for everything that he sees amiss in Alberta. But ask him indirectly"via a question about Klein's successor, Ed Stelmach, and his government"and his unedited feelings come out: "They really inherited a lot of messes," he says bluntly.

Lougheed's key recommendation is that Alberta should put the brakes on oil sands development. "We should have more orderly development," he says. "That means, do one plant, finish it and build another plant, finish it, do another plant"instead of having four of them go on at the same time."

As well, Lougheed has said it was unwise to use the province's deposits of natural gas to extract oil from the oil sands. He has urged the new government to rebuild the Heritage Fund that he had created as a rainy-day reserve for the province and that his successors largely spent. He warned that the whole structure of oil royalties in the province should be revised because the people of Alberta were not getting their fair share. And he urged Alberta to take a leading role in the development of federalism.

There appears to be no windmill at which Lougheed will not tilt. He caused some agitation by suggesting that the oil industry should pay half the cost of twinning the dangerous Highway 63, which runs 400 kilometres from Edmonton to the oil sands boom town of Fort McMurray. Brandishing a clipping from the morning paper, he suddenly focuses on plans by American refineries to expand their capacity to handle Alberta oil, particularly production from the oil sands: "This is exactly what I'm opposed to," he declares. "These are our jobs. The best jobs in the oil sands are on the refining side of it. We should be having the upgraders here."

There is a key idea underpinning Lougheed's complaints: It's our oil. The people of Alberta are paying for the boom in high prices, but they're not getting the benefits of the boom in high royalties. And, as he was with Snow, he's adamant that it's up to Alberta where the oil goes. "We're the owners of the resource and we're the sellers, in a sellers' market. We should be trying to get a second buyer in Asia, and in China in particular. Let's get China interested in a long-term contract"not ownership; they don't need to do that. But let's get a pipeline out to Prince Rupert and let's get the oil on the tankers and let's get another market. Any seller is better off having two buyers than one buyer."

Not that the former premier has the province onside on all of this. "I don't represent with this view the majority of Albertans," Lougheed says. "But it's getting to be that more and more are agreeing with me. They're starting to be impacted by the cost factors all around us, and then they're saying, 'I remember Lougheed saying that we're going too fast.' "

Polls suggest Lougheed may be closer to the mainstream than he thinks. A poll conducted for the green-leaning Pembina Institute in the spring of 2007 reported that 71% of Albertans believe new oil sands approvals should be suspended until infrastructure and environmental issues have been addressed. And 74% think the rate of development should be managed by the provincial government, compared to the 20% who feel that the pace should be decided by market forces. Half of those polled believe oil sands development has been too fast; 56% thought that the province is not getting its fair share from its oil and gas resources.
Roger Gibbins, president of the Canada West Foundation, a Calgary-based think tank, believes that the former premier carries weight because he kept his powder dry and concentrated on the big issues. Moreover, as the Pembina numbers suggest, many people are receptive to his sort of ideas.

"Within the province, there is a very lively debate about the pace of growth, so Lougheed was speaking to a real audience," says Gibbins. "A fair bit of polling demonstrated that an overwhelming majority of Albertans supported a change in the royalty review and did not buy into the industry argument, and in fact was quite skeptical about the positive contribution of the industry to the province. I would be hesitant to say that Lougheed was speaking to a minority constituency."

If nothing else, the polls indicate an unexpected divergence between Alberta's people and its government"unexpected because the people (or at least those who voted in a record low turnout) returned the Tories under Stelmach in a landslide election victory last spring.
Chris Severson-Baker of the Pembina Institute says that Lougheed has seemed radical because Klein and Stelmach are of the small-c conservative school, which holds that if the pace of development is too fast, the market will correct it. It is not something for government to worry about.

"The ideology of the market pervades all the cabinet ministers," Severson-Baker declares. "When you sit down and chat with them, one of the first things they point out to you is, 'Look, we don't see it as our job to control the pace of development. That's for the market to decide.' "
The message from the Stelmach government is uncertain. The new Premier and his ministers may be convinced free-marketers. But, on royalties, they turned their backs on Klein, who was adamant that no revisions were necessary. "I think Mr. Stelmach came up with a pretty good balance," Lougheed says.

It amounts to raising about $2 billion more a year from the industry. The epithets that came from that side in reaction were predictable: Albertastan, disturbed, Goodbye Canada, socialist, killing the golden goose, shocked, aghast, Putinesque"all much the same as the complaints against Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams when he took on the oil companies over the province's offshore take.

"As soon as they saw it was a fait accompli, many of them pulled back," comments Lougheed, who has seen the pattern before. The retreat also had something to do with rising oil prices. "It's pretty hard to start crying when your share price is going way up and your profits are going way up, too."

Public-spirited Lougheed may be, but he is also settling accounts with Klein, the roughneck radio reporter-turned-politician who ruled Alberta from 1992 to 2006.

Peter McCormick, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge, thinks of Klein as the interloper who stole the Conservative party from the party establishment; the establishment was, above all, Peter Lougheed, and the establishment regarded Klein as a hoodlum. Klein was the coarse, hard-drinking loudmouth who denounced eastern bums and creeps, and cursed homeless people. In contrast, the patrician Lougheed was the abstemious, superorganized workaholic who, as a politician, was as smooth as they come.

McCormick describes Lougheed as a creature of the 1970s. In that decade, there was a wave of provincial elections across Canada that returned reform governments. Regardless of party label, they were socially progressive, change-oriented, committed to the idea that government could solve problems and that government spending was a good thing""a remarkable decade for politics; in many ways, we're spoiled rotten for having lived through it. We'll never get that again," says McCormick.

Much the same kind of enthusiasm comes from Ipsos Reid pollster Darrell Bricker, who looks back on the Lougheed regime as Alberta's halcyon days. Of his successors"Don Getty, Klein and Stelmach"Bricker says: "It's not been a pantheon of heroes."

By contrast, he says, "If we went out and did a poll tomorrow, asking, name me one Alberta politician that you're particularly proud of, I'll bet you Lougheed's name would figure pretty prominently."

McCormick is obviously sympathetic to Lougheed but sees limits to his influence: "It's a long time since he's been premier. There are people like me that you can talk to about Lougheed, but most of my students don't know who he is. There's a very short political memory in this province, and Lougheed is starting to get on the wrong side of it."

If there is any association in the public mind, says Calgary pollster Janet Brown, the former premier is remembered for fighting for Alberta and standing up to Pierre Trudeau. Also, people remember him for setting up the Heritage Fund. Above all, Lougheed is revered in the business community, and that is a community that has clout.

Perhaps the constituency Lougheed cares most about is the Conservative party. He is trying to reclaim it for what he would regard as its better side, and convert Ed Stelmach into the bargain. "He's entirely different from Ralph Klein," Lougheed says. "So I've been very pleased about that. And I also sense that he recognizes the challenges that he has. I feel pretty good that over time he will come to grips with it all, but these are early days."

Right after last March's election, Stelmach was careful to make time for a long meeting with Lougheed. Last December, for the first time since Ralph Klein became premier, Lougheed attended the Premier's Christmas party at Calgary's McDougall Centre. The two men meet frequently and discuss things Conservative. And that, says Lougheed, "wasn't occurring for 13 years under Klein."

Why? Lougheed shrugs with what seems to be pretty lofty disdain: "It had no appeal. Klein didn't understand the party and he didn't have any interest in it, and he let the party basically fall apart. But Stelmach knows this and he's changing it."

Asked whether he and Stelmach talk about the oil sands and energy policies, Lougheed evades a direct answer and says he tries not to get involved in policy issues with the Premier: "He's got enough on his plate, so I'm not really pushing that""which is not exactly a denial.

"I think the jury's out with regard to Mr. Stelmach. I think he's got so many headaches that he's inherited"the health and education side and other places"that only time will tell whether or not he takes a more orderly view of the development of resources," says Lougheed.

Orderly development? A nice idea, but for Alberta and for the oil industry that made the province the wealthiest in Canada, that would be turning back the clock"back to the days when Peter Lougheed was premier.



0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Sep, 2008 04:28 pm
@farmerman,
So boone pickens estimates 80$/barrel. I dont think it'll ever get that low.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Sep, 2008 09:56 pm
@Steve 41oo,
I agree; the oil producers will cut supply as soon as it hits $100/bbl.
 

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