STRATFOR week of 5/18/03

STRATFOR
Turkey and Iraqi Kurds: Tension and Detente
May 16, 2003

Several recent incidents suggest a Turkish-Kurdish detente. However, beneath the surface, Ankara's geopolitical concerns remain -- and a confrontation between the two seems inevitable.

Tentative Progress in U.S.-Syrian Relations
May 13, 2003

The U.S. military reportedly has reopened the border between Iraq and Syria near Mosul. Given recent tensions between the two states, this move represents a test by Washington to gauge Syrian cooperation. The results of this preliminary step very well could determine the course of future U.S.-Syrian relations.

U.S. Infringes on European Efforts With Mideast Free Trade Offer
May 12, 2003

The Bush administration has proposed a free trade agreement with the Middle East -- a deal that could help the region but also could aggravate U.S.-European ties.

New Resolution Would Solidify U.S. Position as Global Hegemon
May 09, 2003

The United States has presented a resolution to the U.N. Security Council that would suspend the sanctions regime and transition the oil-for-food program in Iraq into a different form. The resolution is an attempt to get a U.N. stamp of approval on coalition efforts in Iraq -- which in reality will continue regardless of the Security Council's actions. But more than that, it is a challenge to every state that opposed U.S. policy in Iraq and a threat to those who might do so again.