Failed States

Iraq, Afghanistan on 'failed states' index
Posted 5/2/2006 8:06 AM ET

WASHINGTON (AP) ?- Despite large-scale U.S. support, Iraq and Afghanistan rank among the world's 10 most vulnerable states, according to a private survey being released Tuesday.

In its second annual "failed states" index, Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace concluded that Sudan is the country under the most severe stress because of violent internal conflict.

Eleven of the 20 most vulnerable countries of the 148 examined in the survey are in Africa. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ivory Coast, both chronically volatile in recent years, ranked second and third.

Each country was given a score based on data from numerous available sources. A "failing state" was described as one in which the government does not have effective control of its territory, is not perceived as legitimate by a significant portion of its population, does not provide domestic security or basic public services to its citizens and lacks a monopoly on the use of force.

Sudan received low grades in virtually all areas surveyed, including protection of human rights, "group grievances" against the government and numbers of refugees and displaced persons. The western Sudanese region of Darfur has generated well over 2 million displaced since 2003.

According to the review, the situation in Iraq (No. 4) and Afghanistan (No. 10) deteriorated since 2005, the first year the survey was taken.

"For Iraq, the index category that worsened most was human flight," the report said. "The exodus of Iraq's professional class has accelerated, leaving the country without the trained citizens it needs to staff important posts."

Iraq's instability was underscored in a State Department report last week that said fully 30% of all terrorist attacks worldwide last year occurred in Iraq.
In terms of available human resources, Afghanistan faces a somewhat different problem from Iraq, the report said. It pointed out that while educated Afghan exiles have been slow to return following the fall of the Taliban in 2001, overwhelmingly poor Afghan refugees have returned in large numbers from Iran and Pakistan.

"The result is a capital city busting at the seams but short of trained administrators, the report said.

Pakistan is another troubled country, the report said. Its inability to police the tribal areas near the Afghan border helped lead to one of the sharpest declines in overall score of any country on the index.

Other contributing factors were the devastating earthquake last October in Kashmir and simmering ethnic tensions.

The study debunks the notion that steady growth rates in China are making the country more stable. It found that China lost ground last year.
Pauline Baker, president of the Fund for Peace, said in an interview that the major factors behind China's vulnerability are inequality and corruption, which, she said, led to about 87,000 peasant protests last year.

Foreign Policy senior editor David Bosco said China is made up of the booming coastal region, and the interior, which has been left behind.
"There is a lot of discontent. The government is aware of the problem," he said.

Baker said India has greater social mobility and is more decentralized than China, possibly giving that country the upper hand over its more populous neighbor over the long haul.

Among countries that lost considerable ground last year in the survey's "index of instability," besides China and Pakistan, were Zimbabwe ("poor governance and endemic corruption) and Nigeria ("regional and religious fissures").

On the plus side, high oil prices have helped Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez solidify power and stabilize the country, the report said. Others registering significant gains were the Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Bosnia.

Bosco said a major moderating factor in Bosnia is the lure of possible membership in the European Union.

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LIST OF 'FAILED STATES'

The 60 most vulnerable states of the 148 countries examined in the second annual "failed states index" of Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace:

1. Sudan
2. Democratic Republic of Congo
3. Ivory Coast
4. Iraq
5. Zimbabwe
6. Chad
6. (Tie) Somalia
8. Haiti
9. Pakistan
10. Afghanistan
11. Guinea
11. (Tie) Liberia
13. Central African Republic
14. North Korea
15. Burundi
16. Yemen
16. (Tie) Sierra Leone
18. Myanmar
19. Bangladesh
20. Nepal
21. Uganda
22. Nigeria
22. (Tie) Uzbekistan
24. Rwanda
25. Sri Lanka
26. Ethiopia
27. Colombia
28. Kyrgyzstan
29. Malawi
30. Burkina Faso
31. Egypt
32. Indonesia
33. Syria
33. (Tie) Kenya
35. Bosnia-Herzegovina
36. Cameroon
37. Angola
37. Togo
39. Bhutan
39. Laos
41. Mauritania
42. Tajikistan
43. Russia
44. Niger
45. Turkmenistan
46. Guinea-Bissau
47. Cambodia
47. (Tie) Dominican Republic
49. Papua New Guinea
50. Belarus
51. Guatemala
52. Equatorial Guinea
52. (Tie) Iran
54. Eritrea
55. Serbia-Montenegro
56. Bolivia
57. China
57. (Tie) Moldova
59. Nicaragua
60. Georgia