STRATFOR daily Iraq war analysis week of 4/21

STRATFOR daily Iraq war analysis week of 4/21

Karbala: Religious Celebration and Political Opportunities

April 22, 2003 - 2007 GMT
Competing Shia factions could seek to manipulate the Arbaiin religious festival in Karbala to advance their political goals.
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Daawa: Wild Card in U.S.-Shia Relations
April 21, 2003

It has become clear that Iraq's Shia majority is poised to play a more important role than before in forming a new Iraq. However, the U.S. military has concerns about Daawa, the country's oldest Islamist group. Unlike the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Daawa has all its combat resources inside Iraq -- and is prepared to attack coalition troops if necessary. Whether the latter happens depends on U.S.-Shia relations.
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Riyadh Summit: From Opposition to Resignation
April 21, 2003

Officials from countries neighboring Iraq, as well as from Egypt, met in Riyadh over the weekend to discuss the future of the Middle East. The shift in the atmosphere from the pre-war period was striking: There was deep unease with the U.S. victory in Iraq, but there appeared to be even more unease with confronting the United States too openly. Everyone was careful to hold their positions without irritating the powerful, unpredictable giant in their midst.