STRATFOR daily analysis 4/18/03; UN, the New War

STRATFOR daily analysis 4/18/03

United Nations: The New War
April 18, 2003

The war in Iraq is all but over, but a new war is about to begin -- inside the United Nations Security Council. Countries that were opposed to the war will look to the United Nations as a way to eke out some benefits of reconstruction and gain access to Iraqi oil; the Bush administration will want to shut them out.
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U.S. Tested in Occupier Role
April 18, 2003

Iraqi factions are testing the limits of U.S. control as they vie with one another for control over post-Hussein Iraq. Their differing perceptions of U.S. political will and military commitment have led them to fortify a pro forma cooperation with the United States, with much more tangible actions aimed at presenting Washington with a fait accompli. How Washington deals with this Iraqi duplicity will determine U.S. success both at occupying Iraq and at changing regional perceptions of U.S. vulnerability.



Stratfor's daily chronicle and analysis of key events in the U.S.-Iraq war

Regional Players Begin Power Grab in Iraq
April 17 - 18, 2003

Following the fall of the Baathist regime in Iraq, a power vacuum has emerged, especially within Baghdad itself. Amid the ongoing looting and sporadic fighting, various groups are jockeying for power -- and the United States has yet to react. This could lead to problems down the road for a U.S.-backed interim administration.
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From Baghdad to Jerusalem
April 17 - 18, 2003

Stratfor has always said that the U.S. military campaign in Iraq would be the preface to other campaigns and the reordering of the Middle East. The war isn't quite over, but the reordering of the region is already under way, with some remarkable successes for the United States. Even Syria represents a success for the United States, since it allows the Americans to demonstrate that they are not tired after Iraq and are ready for new challenges.
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STRATFOR daily analysis 4/16/03

New Distrust in Franco-Anglo Relations?
April 16, 2003

The British government has moved to block plans that would give France open access to details of a new British aircraft carrier. Relations between the two countries soured in the run-up to the Iraq war, and it appears that Britain now is shielding its classified defense information even from one of its own partners within NATO and the European Union -- pointing to fears that Paris might peddle the information to third parties.
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Emergence of Iraqi Resistance Group Signals New Phase in Conflict
April 16, 2003

While the conventional war in Iraq is over, the emergence of an Iraqi resistance group signals that the country is entering a new period in which anti-occupation groups will target U.S. and British forces and local forces that have sided with the coalition. Others are likely to follow this new group, but the resistance in Iraq will be fragmented and led by emerging personalities rather than members of the former government. If these groups ever pose a serious threat to coalition forces, it will not be until after a long period of organization and regrouping.
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U.S. To Pay the Bill for Saudi Support
April 16, 2003

Gen. Richard Myers said April 15 that the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Baghdad might eliminate the need for U.S. forces deployed in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. This was an argument Riyadh made prior to the war, and was one price the Saudi government set for its cooperation. It seems now that Washington has agreed to pay the bill, and that U.S.-Saudi relations could improve in the near term.
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Iraq's Currency Question: What's in Your Wallet?
April 16, 2003

Iraq is not likely to adopt the U.S. dollar as its new currency, and instead might opt to revive a former currency called the "Swiss dinar." Nevertheless, the dollar will be the unofficial currency of choice in Iraq for a long time.