STRATFOR: 2ND QUARTER FINANCIAL FORECAST

STRATFOR: 2ND QUARTER FINANCIAL FORECAST
April 15, 2003

The second quarter will be dominated globally by the U.S. victory over Iraq. U.S. power has advanced to another level, and the world will spend the next quarter coming to terms with what this means. To a great extent, economic behavior around the world is following roughly the pattern it would have followed without the war. That doesn't mean that economic news is good, but the bad news isn't war-driven. However, two major wild cards -- SARS and al Qaeda -- will combine to make a relatively predictable quarter less predictable.