STRATFOR 4/13/03 analysis

STRATFOR 4/12: Postwar Honeymoon for U.S. Foreign Policy
Postwar Honeymoon for U.S. Foreign Policy
April 12, 2003

For all intents and purposes, the war is over. From a U.S. perspective, it was a short, relatively painless, complete butt-whuppin' of the Iraqi military. Its success has made it popular, and its popularity will skew political discourse in the United States for the near future. This will offer the Bush administration a brief honeymoon within which to pursue any further aggressive foreign policy options it may deem necessary.

Coalition Could Face Humanitarian Crisis in Baghdad
April 12, 2003

Since the fall of Baghdad, widespread looting has taken place. Not only is this a problem for coalition forces trying to restore order, but it also brings Iraq -- especially Baghdad -- to the brink of a possible humanitarian crisis. With the world now looking to the United States to bring order back to Iraq, this could be a trigger for political fallout.

Rival Factions, Internal Dissent To Shape Postwar Government
April 11, 2003

The U.S. State Department has confirmed that an American delegation is scheduled to meet with members of the Iraqi opposition on April 15 in An Nasiriyah. However, the real power plays and actions that ultimately may decide the political fortunes of various groups will take place in the streets and the hills, away from the U.S.-sponsored forum.

STRATFOR 4/13/03: Al Qaeda's Move
April 13, 2003
Stratfor's daily chronicle and analysis of key events in the U.S.-Iraq war

Disparate Russian Information an Effort To Downplay Chechnya?
April 13, 2003

Top Russian generals repeatedly have reported far more coalition losses -- both human and material -- in Iraq than has the Pentagon. A possible reason for this would be to downplay a less-than-impressive performance by Russian brass in the Chechen war. After many years of fighting, Russia has yet to close the conflict in a decisive victory. And by all accounts, there is no end in sight.
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Al Qaeda's Move
April 12, 2003

The U.S. victory in Iraq has transformed the Islamic and Arab psychology. The sense of power that the Sept. 11 attacks engendered for the Arab and Islamic masses has been replaced by a sense of weakness, vulnerability and a feeling of betrayal by leaders who allowed this catastrophe to happen. There is also a sense of enormous American power. Al Qaeda is on the spot. Having set in motion the process that led to the fall of Baghdad, it is now under heavy pressure to demonstrate both that it is still operational and that it can still exact vengeance on the United States. Working from the politics -- but having no direct intelligence of al Qaeda's capabilities or intentions, and clearly aware that logic does not always determine events -- it is our view that the United States is now at the most extreme risk of being attacked by al Qaeda since Sept. 11, 2001.

STRATFOR 4/14: President Keeps U.S.-Syrian Crisis Warm
President Keeps U.S.-Syrian Crisis Warm
April 14, 2003

President George W. Bush on April 13 signaled that the confrontation with Syria will neither go away nor be brought to a boil just yet. At the moment, the United States has the luxury of time in dealing with Syria, but not a great deal of time. The options include moving to full confrontation, the Syrians could capitulate or Washington could walk away.

We find the last improbable, the second possible but difficult to envision -- at least when it comes to satisfying the United States. Therefore the first, a confrontation between the two countries, remains the most likely outcome.