Following on Lithwick's thought, Ronald Dworkin held in a recent essay on the Roberts' nomination
(NYRB) that the social conservatives (and the Republican Party) do not actually wish to see Roe knocked down because of the political repurcussions of such an extreme move.
Quote:I do not expect Roberts to vote to overturn Roe v. Wade, or even to overturn the Court's repeated decisions sustaining limited affirmative action programs in state universities and professional schools. It seems likely, moreover, that neither decision will be seen as in the best interests of political conservatives. Overruling Roe would suddenly make abortion again an urgent national political issue for many millions of women who have come to take for granted the right that women have enjoyed for two generations and who now vote to express their views on other issues, often for Republicans. Overruling Roe would not be helpful to the national Republican Party.
CNN/Gallop polling since 1996
shows a stable preference for the maintenance of access to abortion.
So, it seems the Republicans are in a bit of a jam on this matter. In order to sustain the co-operation and support of the religious conservative element of the party, they must show themselves to be aggressively and sincerely pursuing the demise of Roe (I think it nearly certain that Bush would have continued to support Miers if only the neoconservative/Federalist society people had protested AND IF the religious conservative leaders had been happy with her - the first camp being too esoteric to have much of a voter following but the second camp representing a critical populist voter base for the modern Republican Party).
Yet, if a consequence of the Republicans moving to overturn Roe (or even perceived to be moving there) would be likely future electoral failures and loss of real power, then this would not be (Dworkin argues, and I think he's right) in the perceived best interests of the conservative movement overall (Norquist, for example, has said that abortion isn't an issue of any personal significance for him).
The more that the conversation moves into the open (as Lithwick is talking about), then the more difficult it is for the social conservatives to speak in code or to operate in 'stealth' mode. That's precisely what the more strategically-minded like Norquist or Kristol or Melman will wish and advise - "Don't scare voters with the whole enchillada. Give 'em palatable bits slowly." On the other hand, I suspect that the strident anti-Roe camp will have great difficulty controlling themselves and their words, having gained a taste for red meat over the last few years.
If that is a coherent and mostly accurate take on what's going on, then we should expect some on the right to keep the conversation and the hearings as far away from black/white on Roe, while the more activist anti-Roe folks will resist such urges to quiet and cause some PR problems.