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If you were a campaign manager in the 2024 American election, how would you conduct your polling?

 
 
Reply Sun 17 Dec, 2023 05:07 am
1. Hypothetically speaking, you are a campaign manager for this upcoming 2024 American election.

2. You want to conduct your own periodic polling to get some feel of how the voters will vote in this upcoming 2024 American election.

3. These periodic polls you are conducting are for (internal) use only.

4. The results of these periodic polls are not to be published.

5. These periodic polls are to only be seen by the campaign manager and the candidate.

6. Being that these polls are (internal polls) and are not to be published, there would be no incentive to manipulate or skew the polls or the data attained from the polls..

7. The whole purpose is so that you as a campaign manager have raw usable unbiased data points to be analyzed.

8. As a campaign manager, part of your job will be to analyze data and plan campaign strategies.


9. Specifically, what questions would you ask in these (internal for your eyes only) polls?

10. What specific data are you as a campaign manager trying to gather from these (internal for your eyes only) polling?
 
Real Music
 
  2  
Reply Sun 17 Dec, 2023 05:46 am
If I were conducting (internal for my eyes only/non published) polling, I would ask the following questions:

1. Age?
2. Gender?
3. Race/ethnicity?
4. Were you old enough to vote in the last Presidential election?
5. Were you old enough to vote in the las mid-term election?
6. Did you vote in the last Presidential election?
7. Did you vote in the last mid-term election?
8. What is your likelihood of you voting in this upcoming election? Definitely will vote, Definitely won't vote, Most likely will vote, or most likely won't vote.
9. Are you currently attending college?
10. Do you have at least a two year college degree?
11. Are you married?
12. In the last mid-term election, did you vote straight ticket republican, straight ticket democrat, straight ticket third party, or some type of split ticket?
13. In the last presidential election, did you vote straight ticket republican, straight ticket democrat, straight ticket third party, or some type of split ticket?
14. In this upcoming election, do you plan to vote straight ticket democrat?
15. In this upcoming presidential election, do you plan to vote straight ticket republican?
16. In this upcoming election, do you plan to vote straight ticket third party?
17. In this upcoming election, do you plan to vote split ticket?
18. In this upcoming election do you not know how you will vote regarding political party affiliation?
19. If your choices are Biden and Trump, will you vote for Biden?
20. If your choices are Biden and Trump, will you vote for Trump?
21. If your choices are Biden and Trump, will you vote for third party?
22. If your choice is a Democrat who is not Biden vs a Republican who is not Trump, would you be more likely to vote for the Democrat?
23. If your choice is a Democrat who is not Biden vs a Republican who is not Trump, would more likely vote for the Republican?
24. If your choice is a Democrat who is not Biden vs a Republican who is not Trump, would you more likely vote for a third party?
25. If your choice is a Democrat who is not Biden vs a Republican who is not Trump, would you be more likely to not vote at all?

Those are the questions I would ask in an internal unpublished for my eyes only) poll.

I would also conduct this poll (periodically), especially in the battleground/swing states.
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Sun 17 Dec, 2023 06:11 am
@Real Music,
In the UK drama "A Very British Coup," the Murdoch type newspaper proprietor asks about polling while the government is in 8ts honeymoon period.

It's about the question asked, manipulated to get the most favourable response.

The question should we have a srong leader is typical It feeds into the idea of Trump's perceived strength and Biden's weakness regardless of dealing with Russia etc.

Good questions for the Dems would probably focus on child welfare at schools, censorship and attacks on reproductive rights.
Real Music
 
  2  
Reply Sun 17 Dec, 2023 04:02 pm
@izzythepush,
Quote:
It's about the question asked, manipulated to get the most favourable response.

1. Under the premise that this is the campaign's own (internal unpublished polls) (only to be seen by my campaign), it would make no sense to manipulate to get the most favorable response.

2. No one outside my campaign is ever going to have access to these internal unpublished polling results.

3. Skewing or manipulating these (internal unpublished) polls would be pointless.

4. The only polling data that would be useful for me to (analyze) is relevant raw data that is not skewed or manipulated.
Real Music
 
  2  
Reply Sun 17 Dec, 2023 04:24 pm
leading question: is a question asked in a way that is intended to produce a desired answer.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/leading%20question
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  2  
Reply Sun 17 Dec, 2023 04:38 pm
If I were conducting an internal unpublished poll, I would (avoid) asking any questions in which the answer to the question is subjective.

Here are some examples of questions that would result in (subjective) answers:

1. Do you consider yourself as being a progressive?
2. Do you consider yourself as being a conservative?
3. Do you consider yourself as being an independent?
4. Do you consider yourself as being a moderate?
5. What do you consider to be moderate?
6. What do you consider to be in the middle?
7. What do you consider to be far left?
8. What do you consider to be far right?
9. What do you consider to be left-wing
10. What do you consider to be right-wing? 

Since the answers to each of those questions would be (subjective), that would make their answers to be meaningless for the purpose of analyzing.

I would never ask any question that requires an answer that is (subjective).
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Dec, 2023 01:46 am
@Real Music,
Quote:
If I were conducting (internal for my eyes only/non published) polling, I would ask the following questions:

1. Age?
2. Gender?
3. Race/ethnicity?
4. Were you old enough to vote in the last Presidential election?
5. Were you old enough to vote in the las mid-term election?
6. Did you vote in the last Presidential election?
7. Did you vote in the last mid-term election?
8. What is your likelihood of you voting in this upcoming election? Definitely will vote, Definitely won't vote, Most likely will vote, or most likely won't vote.
9. Are you currently attending college?
10. Do you have at least a two year college degree?
11. Are you married?
12. In the last mid-term election, did you vote straight ticket republican, straight ticket democrat, straight ticket third party, or some type of split ticket?
13. In the last presidential election, did you vote straight ticket republican, straight ticket democrat, straight ticket third party, or some type of split ticket?
14. In this upcoming election, do you plan to vote straight ticket democrat?
15. In this upcoming presidential election, do you plan to vote straight ticket republican?
16. In this upcoming election, do you plan to vote straight ticket third party?
17. In this upcoming election, do you plan to vote split ticket?
18. In this upcoming election do you not know how you will vote regarding political party affiliation?
19. If your choices are Biden and Trump, will you vote for Biden?
20. If your choices are Biden and Trump, will you vote for Trump?
21. If your choices are Biden and Trump, will you vote for third party?
22. If your choice is a Democrat who is not Biden vs a Republican who is not Trump, would you be more likely to vote for the Democrat?
23. If your choice is a Democrat who is not Biden vs a Republican who is not Trump, would more likely vote for the Republican?
24. If your choice is a Democrat who is not Biden vs a Republican who is not Trump, would you more likely vote for a third party?
25. If your choice is a Democrat who is not Biden vs a Republican who is not Trump, would you be more likely to not vote at all?

Those are the questions I would ask in an internal unpublished for my eyes only) poll.

I would also conduct this poll (periodically), especially in the battleground/swing states.


What can be extrapolated from my list of poll questions?

The data gathered from questions 1 thru 3 is straightforward.

Question 4 thru 8 will indicate the likelihood of whether a person will vote in the next election.

The data gathered from questions 9 thru 11 is straightforward.

Question 12 thru 25 will extrapolate what is your party affiliation without actually asking what is your party affiliation. And it will also indicate specifics on your more recent voting habits and patterns. And it will extrapolate what or how you will probably vote in the next election.

If the polls are done (periodically) you may discover movements and trends moving one way or another.


0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Dec, 2023 02:01 am
@Real Music,
These polls are published and that in itself has an effect.

That's how they do it.

Your proposals seem quite individual and you have put a lot of thought into it, but that's not how polling usually works.
Real Music
 
  3  
Reply Mon 18 Dec, 2023 02:15 am
@izzythepush,
1. Yes, polls are regularly conducted and published by various pollsters who are not part of the campaign.

2. It is also true that campaigns sometimes conduct their own customized (internal) polling to help them (analyze) and strategize on the data that is ascertained internally.

3. I feel that the internal polling is more useful because there is no (incentive) to ascertain flawed or bad data.

4. If I were managing a campaign, I would want good useful raw internal data.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Dec, 2023 02:25 am
@Real Music,
That does sound right, I think we may have been talking at cross purposes.
izzythepush
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 Dec, 2023 02:28 am
@izzythepush,
This is a Labour focused article, but Will Hutton writes about what Biden has got right economically.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/17/bidenomics-beginning-to-pay-off-keir-starmer-needs-to-keep-faith-and-lift-gloom
0 Replies
 
 

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