IMPORTANT:Diplomatic debacle with Turkey proves costly to US

IRAQ: Doubts Haunt Turkey's Kurds
IRAQ: Doubts Haunt Turkey's Kurds
Nadire Mater - IPS

ISTANBUL, Mar 29 (IPS) - "For the first time in world history Kurds will gain international recognition," says Umit Firat an independent Kurdish intellectual from Istanbul, predicting the outcome of the U.S. war on Iraq.

"At least Kurdish autonomy in Iraq will have international guarantors such as United States and Britain, instead of Iraq's ruling Baath Party's broken promises of 1970s," says an optimistic Firat, who believes United States' hold on Iraq will remain unaffected even if the U.S. war plans do not unfold as foreseen by Washington.

Firat's words reflect general feelings in the Kurdish world that the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime will bring Northern Iraqi Kurds further autonomy and even greater say in a future Iraq.

However Turkey's strong opposition to a Kurdish independence state narrows the limits of Kurdish optimism, bringing their aspirations down to expectations of recognition on a local level in a future multi-ethnic Iraq.

Iraqi Kurds, alarmed at an imminent Turkish army incursion into Northern Iraq, have this week breathed a sigh of relief at the denial issued by Turkey's chief of staff General Hilmi Ozkok.

"Unless our forces in Northern Iraq are attacked, there is a massive emigration or the armed groups in the region engage in fighting, there is no reason for us to send additional troops in the area," Ozkok assured.

"This wise and courageous decision would certainly pave the way for a better understanding and cooperation to address all the legitimate concerns of Turkey and the local Kurdish population," said KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) leader Mesoud Barzani in a public statement.

This "would lead to more stability and security in the region, first and foremost for Turkey's own interests," he told journalists.

Iraqi Kurds, who are now calling for the attention of the Kurdish world for international recognition, inhabit a relatively small chunk of the Kurdish lands divided into four parts after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

Most of the 12 million former Ottoman Kurds now live in southeastern Turkey. An additional two million Kurds live in northern Iraq, one million in Iran and fewer than one million in Syria. Small Kurdish populations also exist in Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan and Russia.

Kurds are the sole ethnic group of the former Ottoman Empire who have failed to regroup themselves around a nation-state after the disintegration of the empire during and after the First World War.

While the Arabs of Maghreb and the East, Bulgarians and Armenians have gained independence, Kurds suffer from tribal divides and live in four different states under 'foreign' rule. The only exception was the short-lived Kurdish Republic of Mahabad in the aftermath of the Second World War, now part of Iranian territory.

For the region's rival nation-states, and particularly for Turkey, Kurdish nationalism and Kurdish independence have always comprised a security threat that the government fears may end up with disintegration of the country.

Throughout modern Turkish history, Kurds have revolted against Turkish rule for 27 times. The last insurrection was quelled in 1938 and was followed by coercive assimilation of Kurdish identity, to the extent of denying the existence of Kurds - even in language.

However, long decades of Kurdish silence ended in 1984 in Turkey when the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) launched guerrilla war in a country where the majority of divided Kurdish people lived.

The insurgency and the ruthless crackdown have cost the lives of 30,000 people - 20,000 of whom are Kurdish guerrillas, 5,000 Turkish security force members and 5,000 civilians.

Until 1999 when Kurdish guerrilla PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan was extradited from his hideout in the Syrian capital of Damascus and handed over to Turkey by the Kenyan police under apparent U.S. supervision, the PKK's struggle for "self-determination" from Turkey had become the major focus for the Kurds of the region.

Albeit militarily defeated the PKK's struggle had a major significance for the revival of Kurdish identity, flourishing of the suppressed Kurdish language and customs, increased open political activity among Turkey's Kurds in the country and in exile.

Particularly after the abortive Kurdish uprisings which followed the Iraqi defeat in the Gulf War in 1991, PKK influence in northern Iraq grew considerably compelling Ankara extend its operations deep into northern Iraq. Turkish forces staged countless cross-border operations, the biggest in 1996 when Turkish troops inflicted around 2,000 PKK casualties.

Already 15,000 Turkish troops remain in Northern Iraq and have a hold over two airstrips. They justify their presence by claiming to protect Turkish border security against PKK infiltration.

PKK leader Ocalan, sentenced to life imprisonment, has criticised both Turkey's and Iraqi Kurds' stance in a letter smuggled out of a prison cell on the Imrali Island, some 30 miles south of Istanbul.

"Both the Kurds and Turkey are asking what the United States may give them," observes Ocalan, who now holds the title of the head of KADEK (Kurdistan Democracy and Freedom Congress) that has replaced the PKK after it disbanding itself and declared a unilateral ceasefire with Turkey.

"The U.S. may give you nothing but bloodshed and exploitation," he says, adding: "They will give you one, and get back ten. The only way out is to establish a firm democracy of your own and then engage in cautious relations with the U.S."

According to Ocalan, two paths remain open for the future of Kurds: "One is the path of Kurdish nationalism led by Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Mesoud Barzani's KDP. And the other one is the path of democracy led by me," he claimed.

Turkey could have taken the lead in the region if its government had adopted the 'democratic' path, a democratic solution to Turkey's Kurdish question. "But they failed, and now they are isolated. They should relieve themselves of the 'Kurdish' phobia." The alterative was the "democracy of Bush, which boils down to nothing but imperialism," warns Ocalan.

Baskin Oran, an international relations analyst from Ankara's Political Sciences Faculty, criticises Turkey for inciting fears about an independent Kurdish state in Northern Iraq.

"This would not be the end of the world," Oran says. "Imagine if there emerges a 3 million strong independent Kurdistan in Northern Iraq, could they annex the south-eastern provinces of 70 million strong Turkey? Or, vice versa, would Turkey's Kurds leave European Union's membership candidate Turkey, for a landlocked and impoverished Kurdistan?"

However, "Turkey still fears", Oran observes. "For, successive Turkish governments have not been able to please their Kurdish citizens economically and politically and they are now haunted by doubts about the fidelity of their citizens."

Criticizing the United States for deserting the Kurds three times in their history, in 1918, in 1975 and in 1991, he says: "It is almost certain that Bush Jr. will desert them for a fourth time should the Kurds present a problem for a future puppet government in Baghdad."

BBB, Seems the US finally approved 8.5 billion package for Turkey. c.i.