Putin's War Part 2.

He's been blaming the West all along.

NATO is encroaching Russia, and Ukraine is currently occupied by NATO.

Repeat a lie enough times and it will be believed.

Putin has held back on mobilisation for a long time because of the public attitude.

Now 300,000 Russians are going to be forced back into the army to fight a war they have no interest in.

How this will go down in Russia has yet to be seen.

After the order for partial mobilisation, Russians of conscript age must now stay at their place of residence according to the law. "Citizens who are registered (as reservists) in the military register are forbidden to leave their place of residence from the moment of mobilisation without the permission of the military commissariats and the executive bodies responsible for reserves," reads the law "On Mobilisation in Russia", which became current again today.

The first holiday flights have been cancelled (all to Turkey for instance), Duma deputies are giving Russian men travel tips for the domestic market ...

I saw an article in the Guardian that said all Russian flights out of the country sold out in minutes after the partial mobilization was announced and that flights were going for thousands of euros.

I read that the Chinese media censors are removing comments critical of Russia's mobilization or expressing concern about Ukraine and leaving those supporting Russia's annexation and expansion of the war.

According to the civil rights organisation OVD-Info, almost 1,200 people have been arrested so far across Russia during protests against the Russian partial mobilisation. The independent protest monitoring group says it is aware of arrests in at least 38 different cities. Unauthorised rallies are illegal under Russian anti-protest laws. There may be more arrests, OVD-Info said. The group only publishes the number of arrests it knows for sure. The number is currently increasing at very short intervals.

ovd.news (in Russian)

In Russia, as of yesterday, almost every family is involved in the war.

In Germany there are 2.5 million people (so-called Russia Germans) and about 300,000 Russian citizens.
There are around 5 million people here who speak Russian at varying levels, including 2.2 million adults living in Germany with Russian as their mother tongue

The louder ones are those who support Putin, but many say nothing at all publicly about the war. But there are also many opponents of Putin.

I read today that they're going to force some of the protesters into the war. I'd like to know how many fled within hours of hearing about the mobilization. I also wonder how many more protests, if any, there will be.

A "referendum" was announced on Dutch TV about Russia’s accession to the Netherlands.

Russia would become a Dutch province. As a bonus, Russian mothers were told that their sons would not have to die in the Ukraine.


Video: https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1572790191617613824/pu/vid/480x270/q8lKluO04JuCTk_1.mp4?tag=14

That's very funny.

The telephones are not standing still, the mailboxes are overflowing:
Since the Russian mobilisation, the German embassies in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Belarus have registered a sharp increase in visa requests from Russian citizens.

Tens of thousands of requests for entry permits to Germany have been received by the German representations in Yerevan, Astana, Tbilisi, Baku and Minsk since 21 September 2022, according to the Federal Foreign Office. It is no longer possible to record and process the applications within the scheduled deadlines - which is why no precise figures on the number of applications are available, it said in response to a quaries. [via various media]

BREAKING:
Zelensky says Ukraine is applying for NATO membership "under an accelerated procedure"...

Read an interesting article on Russia's end game. The idea was the Putin knows he is in trouble, so his plan is to annex parts of Ukraine so he can claim victory, then ask Ukraine to negotiate a peace given the reality that Russia has annexed part of Ukraine while at the same time, threatening France and Germany by showing that critical, transoceanic infrastructure can be destroyed by Russia and Russia can make Europe pay if peace doesn't come. The article pointed out that much of the world's financial data is transferred through privately owned fiber optics lines under the ocean and it would be a simple matter for Russia to destroy those lines. They are almost impossible to guard since they span thousands of miles. They are well mapped out and Russia knows where all of them are. I think this would be a solid idea except for China. China would not be happy if anything throws a serious wrench into the global system since China is a big part of that system. Same with Putin's nuclear threats. I can see China saying, "invade Ukraine all you want, but if you use nukes, we will turn on you."

Yes, it sounds like we've been reading similar articles. We will never rid the world of people like him but a coup really needs to happen.

I have just been reading something about the German Revolution of 1848/49.

The democrats of 1848 let themselves get wrapped up. Instead of standing before the people and leading the uprising, they were inhibited by scruples, pondering whether it was justifiable to expose people to the gun and rifle fire of the princely troops.
Here a basic dilemma of the democrats becomes apparent early on: they are value-based, they place human dignity at the centre and therefore find it difficult to sacrifice lives, even for their own cause. For the same reason, they are inhibited in radically fighting their opponents.

Putin does not think about such things. That is why he has an advantage over the democracies - at least in the short term.

I was reading another article that made an argument that at this point, the only solution is regime change. Putin has backed himself into a corner where he can't win but can't afford to lose either. Unfortunately, I don't think there is a clear alternative that is better in Russia currently. There is no Gorbachev out there.

Russia no longer has full control of any of four 'annexed' Ukrainian provinces
Source: The Guardian

Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces

Kyiv’s troops advanced in southern Kherson province and made additional gains in east

Luke Harding and Isobel Koshiw in Kyiv, and Peter Beaumont in Sloviansk
Mon 3 Oct 2022 17.00 BST
First published on Mon 3 Oct 2022 15.49 BST

Russia no longer has full control of any of the four provinces of Ukraine it says it annexed last week after Ukrainian troops reportedly advanced dozens of kilometres in Kherson province in the south of the country and made additional gains in the east.

On Monday, the Russian military acknowledged that Kyiv’s forces had broken through in the Kherson region. It said the Ukrainian army and its “superior tank units” had managed to “penetrate the depths of our defence” around the villages of Zoltaya Balka and Alexsandrovka.

The ministry of defence spokesperson Igor Konashenkov said Russian troops had occupied what he called a “pre-prepared defensive line”. They continued to “inflict massive fire damage” on Ukrainian forces, he claimed.

His comments are an admission that Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive is dramatically gaining pace, two months after it began. Ukrainian brigades appear to have achieved their biggest breakthrough in the region since the war started, bursting through the frontline and advancing rapidly along the Dnieper River.

Kyiv gave no official confirmation of the gains. ...

-snip-

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/russia-has-no-full-control-of-any-of-four-annexed-ukrainian-provinces

Lets understand something. From 2001 the United States went into a recession that is literally similar to a depression from the so called Iraq and Afghanistan war effort against imaginary terrorists, which literally was done on purpose. While Bill Clinton and his wife held down little girls and smoke the cocaine. We had a moron in office to boot with a snake for a vice-president. Then looking at the results of the entire economy of the world failing, with money being devalued across the globe. Nobody thinks why did we vote for this moron ( Bush II ) twice as with the last couple of morons since Kennedy death.

People died for nothing even for Kuwait ( which should have never happen but thank you British ), USA burn ( and continue to burn money into fictional state of Israel ) money into a place that had Miss Universe while people was dying from a virus. Then to make matters worst is the discrimination non-stop from peoples rights to people to being able to have simple income. Which is insanity.

It is like that book/movie "1984". Oceania or is it Eurasia, then again is it Pan-Africa. It is literally stupid for stupid sake and innocent people die for nothing.

USA canned it's Breakfast for students pouring money into weapon manufacturers pockets ( again ) and we make-believe that it actually solved anything.

Everybody knows that the Former USSR Soviet States has been crippled for a long time. USA is literally like one big credit-card for it's nations and citizens. Anytime, we could invade and make it no problem. If USA had parked it's tanks and navy outside on Russia's doorstep most of these problems could be solved. Just like how USA parked it's Navy vessel right in front of North Korea's shores when it attacked/fired upon an Island belonging to Japan ( or is it South Korea ).

Russia ( as with the USA on purposely launched an attack that cost lives ).
I mean back in 1960's when Israel attacked an ship whom it was suppose to be friends with why didn't USA just occupy Zionist Israel already?

USA - Russia - Britain are literally rocking the same boat and it is foolish for people not to realize this fact. It is like watching children play with insects.

Insects = the lives of Ukrainian and Russian people, those who serve in their military, and every life every lost in every single war since the Central-Banking-Party/Red-Shield/Blue-sword caused the British and French to go into debt.

Gaddafi nation of Libya literally had no debt. Free education, perks for married couples and people making children, and so many things. USA on the other hand have been thrown into debt, even pushing debt on to people in college.

While some selfish coward carries a gun with a badge and could careless how many George Floyd occur.

Word salad yourself much, pal? Hint: yes, yes you do.

Actually, one should not compare anyone with Hitler, not even Putin. But the similarities in the downfall are striking.

Vladimir Putin is of course not a second Hitler, nor is he a Nazi, if the term is still supposed to have any meaning. But that is not the point, nor is it about the more than 20 million deaths caused by the Second World War in the Soviet Union. The point is that central elements of the "downfall" are to be found precisely on Putin's side. It's about what that says about the course of events. About, precisely, Putin's downfall.

For one thing, there is the fear of the powerful of the most powerful. Even the head of the intelligence service shook out his answers when Putin asked him at the beginning of the war about the plans for the occupied territories, which are now - contrary to what was presented at the time - being annexed after all. Furthermore, it was said early on that the military kept two sets of statistics on Russian losses: one real and one for Putin's information, who was not to be irritated. Anyone who does not think of the "downfall", the silent generals and Bruno Ganz's fits of raving madness has not seen the film.

Secondly, there are the reports in the New York Times (NYT), for example, according to which Putin gives military orders and interferes in warfare on a daily basis. The president is said to have ordered the Russian army not to withdraw from Kherson, writes the NYT. Without a tactical withdrawal, however, more than 20,000 men could soon be cut off there.

Once again, is it just me that rings a bell when the leader's order is "Hold at all costs!"?

And finally, as an essential part of "doom", the wonder weapon suddenly appears, this time it is called "Sturmvogel" (Burewestnik or Skyfall) and is a nuclear-powered cruise missile. So far, all tests have failed, they say.

However, and this is where the two versions of "doom" differ, Vladimir Putin actually has weapons at hand that he could trust to suddenly turn the course of the war: so-called tactical nuclear missiles. Will he use them in eastern Ukraine if the Russian army cannot hold the territories? And how should Germany, Europe and the US deal with at least the possibility that he will?

Vladimir Putin says that all this is "not a bluff", but poker is a rational game. And it would not be rational to use "tactical" nuclear weapons: It is highly doubtful whether territory can be conquered offensively with such weapons, because what force should advance into that area afterwards? And who among the "liberated" would still want to live there? What is certain, however, is that their use could bring Putin straight before the war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Or does anyone believe that his (alleged) friends in China, India and Turkey will let him get away with it? Not if Putin opened Pandora's box and made a nuclear war possible, which could then also be waged against himself.

(Translated and slightly redacted Spiegel report)

That last part is where I think the deterrent really is. I don't think Putin is worried about the Hague, but I do think that he is worried that China and India will go nuts if he uses nuclear weapons and he needs those two allies in his "anti-West" coalition. Using nuclear weapons could have the side effect of making Russia a pariah state worldwide. There is also the outside chance that some military officer, when presented with the order to fire nuclear weapons, just rebels and kills Putin. Blind obedience in the military is something that happens in the spur of the moment. I'm sure that right now, throughout the Russian military, people are asking themselves what they will do when told to pull the trigger and that forethought could change what happens.