2020 POTUS Election

@shug23,

shug23 wrote:

maybe it's a leading question...but there is way more to it than simply the border wall going on...eg. keeping illegals in Mexico to wait for their court date instead of letting them stay in America,, sending non-Mexicans back to South America, reallocating funding, sending troops, etc, etc, etc.....

I agree with you Shug... kind of.

Rasmussen asks questions in a way that gets specific results. But, so does every polling organization. I am pretty sure that they do this fairly responsibly and transparently; publishing their questions, and methodology.

On these polls (since each one asks questions in a way that measures something a little differently) the key is to look at movement. And I think that generally Rasmussen goes up when the other polls go up, and goes down when the other polls go down.

There is no question that Rasmussen favors Trump more than the other polls. But that doesn't make it invalid.

I don't believe it is a leading question... as long as they ask the same question the same way each time so they can gauge the changes in opinion over time.

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Agree. So let me ask you this......why doesn't your man answer live reporter questions? He comes out, says whatever he says, and takes no questions.......if trump's narrative? is that biden is suffering from mental deterioration, doesn't this just feed into it, to someone in the middle who is trying to make up his mind? Or do you think it goes unnoticed and the reporters don't mention it?

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@shug23,

You can have a leading question the other way, ‘How do you feel about Trump diverting funds meant for America’s defence to his own personal vanity project wall?

How you ask a question is important in polling, but instead of dealing with that you change the subject.

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Yes. I did change the subject because I think all that needed to be said on whether it was a leading question or not, has been said....so I move on

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@shug23,

You’ve not moved on, you’ve failed to address the skewed questions in your pet pollster. That alone is reason enough not to trust them.

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@shug23,

shug23 wrote:

Agree. So let me ask you this......why doesn't your man answer live reporter questions? He comes out, says whatever he says, and takes no questions.......if trump's narrative? is that biden is suffering from mental deterioration, doesn't this just feed into it, to someone in the middle who is trying to make up his mind? Or do you think it goes unnoticed and the reporters don't mention it?

Biden is winning the election (in my opinion). He is doing what he thinks will keep him in the lead.

The mental deterioration claim is silly. It will be addressed during the debates Wink

If Trump is wasting his time pushing on something that will be easily debunked, why would Biden stop him.

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I have no issue with anyone thinking it is a biased question.....I simply asked how the original poster would have reworded it.....I have no issue with people saying rasmussen leans right. National polls are pretty meaningless. It's the trend I watch but even that means nothing ten weeks out....

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@maxdancona,

Thanks for the reply......I too will enjoy the next ten weeks until I dont

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@izzythepush,

All pollsters are skewed. It is usually not intentional but in how they phrase their questions. If you word a question slightly differently, it can still be a valid question, but you can shift a few percent here and there. The 538.com pollster ratings measure the bias and the accuracy over time by comparing polls to actual election results. If they see someone who is not using acceptable polling techniques, they give them an F rating, but Rasmussen doesn't fall into this category. Still, they aren't the top tier of pollsters for both bias and sigma.

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@shug23,

Biden delivered a pretty solid speech and the DNC. He looked great, sounded great. Honestly Trump did ok, but not as good IMO and his interviews have been train wrecks recently, even on friendly ground. Of course, if you repeat a lie enough, people will believe it.

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The election brings out the nerd for me. This site is pretty detailed, and it includes the predictions from other non-biased political sites.

www.270towin.com

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@maxdancona,

For Trump to win... he is going to have to take the states in the upper midwest. They are currently listed as "leans Biden". The current racial unrest gives him the greatest chance in my opinion.

The problem for Trump is that Biden is not getting linked to liberal extremism or to the racial protests. Yesterday he condemned violence. I think it is going to be difficult for Trump to make this argument.

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@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

I think it is going to be difficult for Trump to make this argument.

When have facts ever stopped Trump from shooting his mouth off?

Obamagate is a made up term yet he still keeps banging on about it and only defining it by itself.

I know this analogy won’t mean anything to you, but it’s like the scene in Antony and Cleopatra where Mark Antony describes a crocodile to a drunken Lepidus.

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@izzythepush,

Mark Anthony wrote:

A veces llega la lluvia
Para limpiar las heridas
A veces solo una gota
Puede vencer la sequía
Y para qué llorar, pa' qué
Si duele una pena, se olvida
Y para qué sufrir, pa' qué
Si así es la vida, hay que vivirla, la la la

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@shug23,

Quote:

maybe it's a leading question...but there is way more to it than simply the border wall going on...

Don't overlook the fact that this was only one of the questions and they were all framed similarly, describing Trump's policies in a positive way and then asking if you to what extent you agreed with them. And in this case there was no indication that the situation involved anything other than building a barrier. There was no mention of children in cages, family separation, overt violation of the laws concerning asylum, returning people to their dangerous countries, etc.

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@hightor,

And you don't think that asking these questions to 1000 people in January. And then asking the same questions to 1000 people in April and comparing the answers is a valid measure of how support for this policy is changing over time?

I do.

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@maxdancona,

I might. Changes over time may indicate some trends but I believe that push polling, in general, is not a good method of determining the political view of the electorate.

It would depend entirely on the content of the questions, the methodology employed, and the potential bias of those designing the poll. For example, in this day and age, where many people have ditched their land lines, does reliance on dial up telephone responses provide an accurate cross section of potential voters?

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@hightor,

Your example doesn't meet my definition of "push polls".

But I think a fair question has been asked... how would you word the question in a way that wouldn't add a liberal bias?

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Trump will win in 2020. Look where the riots are... Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois... you think voters are going to be happy with Democratic lack of response to the whack-a-doodles fomenting hate throughout those states?

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@maiden-usa,

maiden-usa wrote:

Trump will win in 2020. Look where the riots are... Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois... you think voters are going to be happy with Democratic lack of response to the whack-a-doodles fomenting hate throughout those states?

I think this is wishful thinking on your part.

Trump has been president for 4 years. These riots are happening in "Trump's America"... this is what we get under Trump. I don't think that blaming the Democrats is going to fly in these states.

We will see. The polling in these states still shows moderately strong support for Joe Biden (who is ahead in all 4 of these states).

Trump is pissing off a lot of American voters in Wisconsin.

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2020 POTUS Election

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