2020 POTUS Election

I think the trend in the three numbers I cited are good predictors....but you may be free to disagree or offer up other empirical measures...

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@roger,

The Line that will win the election for Biden, in response to the riots, looting and pandemic.

"This is Donald Trump's America!"

He has been in office for 4 years now, and the time during the Obama/Biden era is looking pretty good in comparison.

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@shug23,

shug23 wrote:

I think the trend in the three numbers I cited are good predictors....but you may be free to disagree or offer up other empirical measures...

I am up for empirical measures... as long as they can be measured empirically. The measures you gave are.

- The Stock Market (which is easy to measure, but I am not sure how good a measure it is either way this year).

- The Rasmussen Tracking poll. This poll is known to be skewed right... but it is fine as a trend line I think. (I would prefer using less biased polls or aggregated polling, but OK).

- The Black approval rating. I think you are correct that Trump has had a bump in this number. However, I don't know how to get this measure consistently.

Of the three... the Rasmussen Tracking poll is the most interesting. I don't think the stock market is predictive this year.

I have been looking closely at the 538 aggregated polling for both Trump Approval, and General election. I have been looking at 270ToWin for a look at the electoral vote count (they encompass both Sabato and Cook).

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@shug23,

shug23 wrote:

I was answering the original posters question with three numbers to watch...the black approval number, the stock market, and Rasmussen and you might get a view of who is likely to win.

Those are three interesting metrics, but I'm not sure why you chose them.

Minority approval is only important if they turn out to vote. They did not in 2016. If you used this metric four years ago it would have shown you a distorted picture favoring Clinton.

Going with a pollster is fine but why Rasmussen? Rasmussen gets a C+ in the 538.com pollster ratings. Why not go with pollsters that get at least an A- or just look at all of them? (Note, the ratings are adjusted for "lean". Rasmussen tends to lean Republican in their polls meaning that their projections are consistently off by 1.5%, but that is adjusted for in their rating.)

Finally, why the stock market? Using that metric, we should have had Presidents Gore and Clinton.

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@engineer,

The S&P 500 predicted the past 9 elections correctly. If the S&P 500 falls in the last 3 months of an election, the current party in power loses the election.

I don't put much "stock" in it (all puns are intended)... but it has been remarkably accurate.

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I'm just saying that if the economy continues on the trajectory it's on now and people are happy with their 401-ks, that's a big plus for Trump....Similarly, I think Republican Presidential candidates on a good year might get 8% of the black vote ? maybe ?....so if the approval of black vote is 15-20%, that's crazy good for trump.......Re Rasmussen - it seems to be one of the few polls that consistently uses likely voters, but I do agree national polling isn't particularly meaningful....So perhaps at best, it's just a trend line...It's been fluctuating between 46 and 51% approval....

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@shug23,

It seems to me that most of the indicators are showing that Biden is ahead. I have no problem accepting (when I am honest with myself) that Trump could win again. However, most independent analysts say that Biden has the advantage.

It also appears that you are the one desperately looking for any scrap of "good news" you can find.

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@shug23,

Rasmussen wrote:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll sponsored by Liberty Nation for Friday shows that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 37% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 45% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8. (see trends)

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug28

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@maxdancona,

So far, so good. I'm good at worrying, and I tend to stick with what I'm good at.

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this conversation is degrading into Will not...will too...will not...will too...meanwhile S&P futures are up another 1/4 percent......We will all find out in about 10 weeks...Good night all.

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@shug23,

shug23 wrote:

this conversation is degrading into Will not...will too...will not...will too...meanwhile S&P futures are up another 1/4 percent......We will all find out in about 10 weeks...Good night all.

You suggest a couple of trends to watch that we will see develop over the next couple of weeks. I am going to enjoy this election (at least until I stop enjoying it).

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Remember all the predictions in 2016? Remember all the polling that said Trump would lose in a landslide? Laughing

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Quote:

Remember all the polling that said Trump would lose in a landslide?

Selective memory at work — the final polls favored Clinton, but not in a landslide; her "lead"wasn't much more than the typical margin of error. Support for a candidate changes during a campaign. It wasn't so much about Trump gaining strength as it was Clinton losing support over the summer.

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@FreedomEyeLove,

If someone has a 30% chance of winning... 30% of the time they will win.

Biden has about a 70% chance of winning according to at least a couple of models

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@hightor,

To be fair, there were groups out there who looked at individual state polls and treated them independently instead of modeling a correlation. Those groups treated Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. independently instead of saying that the uncommitted voters would tilt in all those states in a similar manner and predicted a solid Clinton win. The better models showed Clinton winning around 3 out of 4 scenarios. Biden is running a little better than Clinton ever did at her best but there is plenty of time for things to change.

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The best part in 2016 was all the smug, assholic, leftist media pundits who were or so sure that Trump would lose. Watching them literally have adult temper tantrums on election day when they had to eat crow.. one of the most entertaining things I've ever seen. All the crying.

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@maxdancona,

Interestingly, I was polled by Rasmussen the other day. It was an obvious "push poll". Questions were framed like this: "How strongly do you support President Trump's efforts to prevent illegal entry into the United States across our southern border?"

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just curious, how would you have liked the question worded ?...also wondering. did you feel they tried to find out if you are a likely voter ? thx

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@shug23,

It’s hardly rocket science, the difference between a leading and a neutral question.

The above is a leading question, a neutral question would be, ‘How do you feel about the border wall with Mexico?’

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maybe it's a leading question...but there is way more to it than simply the border wall going on...eg. keeping illegals in Mexico to wait for their court date instead of letting them stay in America,, sending non-Mexicans back to South America, reallocating funding, sending troops, etc, etc, etc.....

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2020 POTUS Election

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