Covid-19 and Sweden. What is going on?

I heard that their death rate is rather high and much higher than that of some neighboring countries. Could you post a link to some figure?

According to news reports and anecdotal reports from our Swedish cousins' families, there's a lot of anger in Sweden as especially the elderly have to pay the price for the Swedish government's coronavirus strategy.

When you look at the published data, you'll notice that Sweden definitely isn't bending the curve.

It shouldn't be forgotten that Sweden's constitution doesn't allow for a state of emergency during peacetime. That's a measure which exists in many other countries, allowing those countries' governments to impose tougher restrictions during times of crises – something many of them have indeed done.

That's why Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has said several times that people should count on the current restrictions to remain in place "for months".
"It is not possible to say how long, but it is better to mentally adjust to months, not weeks. It is about flattening the curve; then the healthcare system will be able to cope [with the number of cases] but it will take a longer time [for Sweden to get back to normal]," he said last week.

Which data are you looking at? It definitely is bending the curve. It is the same shape as everyone else.

Polling in the beginning of April shows Swedes are pretty supportive of their government's policy. Saying that there is anecdotal anger at the Swedish non-lockdown is no more relevant than the anecdotal anger from people in the US who want the lockdown lifted. You have to look at the general public sentiment.

I think that such countries as Sweden thinks about their economy as well as they think about their people. If they did not decide to make some measures and everything still works and people walink on streets than they know something.

I see no evidence that Sweden was wrong so far.

What we need to know are two things:

How many people have been infected.

How much better off the Swedes are on account of the less brutal measures they have used upon themselves.

Just for the record, I am not saying that Sweden is "right" (whatever "right" means").

I am saying that this decision is complicated. The people who say let's shut it all down are pretending this is the obvious decision, as are the people who want to open it up.

Reality doesn't provide a black and white answer. Who knows where the balance should be.

The fact that social life in Sweden continues to flourish - at least among the young - has its price. In Sweden, far more people have been registered as infected with the coronavirus than in the other Nordic countries. By Tuesday, 1765 people had died with the Covid-19 disease. (By comparison, Denmark has so far had around 370 deaths and Norway around 180. Both countries each have half the population of Sweden.)

But it is not only the older Swedish citizens who do not fully share the view of their government. Almost 2000 scientists have recently written a letter to the Swedish government asking it to change its thinking. Among them is Bo Lundbäck, professor of clinical epidemiology of lung diseases in Gothenburg. He considers the high death rates to be unacceptable and the price paid by Sweden in the Corona fight to be too high. "I don't see Sweden pursuing a concrete strategy and I don't see any trend," he says in an interview with the German Press Agency on Monday. "The guidelines are far too vague and people are confused."

State epidemiologist Tegnell is bounced by criticism. He assumes that Sweden is in a different phase than its neighbours and therefore has higher numbers. He repeatedly speaks of herd immunity - that is, the spread of the virus is stopped because more and more people are immune to it, whether because they have overcome the disease or have been vaccinated. Tegnell expects to see signs of immunity in Stockholm as early as May. He is referring to mathematical models.

The UK actually did the same as Sweden: PM Johnson initially refrained from approving the stringent controls that other European leaders imposed but he later closed down the country when projections showed a quarter of a million people could die in the United Kingdom.
The original approach seems to be politically motivated (Brexit): the Conservative government has given conflicting explanations of why it failed to join a European Union ventilator scheme, admitted there have been problems getting health workers enough protective equipment, are failing to fully explain partial death data, limited testing or the lack of equipment for hospitals.

You are looking at this in a very one sided way. Yes

- Sweden's lax policy has a price
- Many people believe that Sweden is making a mistake.
- Most scientists believe that Sweden is making a mistake.

However, on the other side.

- The hard shutdowns we are seeing in the US and Europe also have a price.
- Many people in the US and Europe believe that the shutdown is a mistake.
- Many economists believe that the shutdown will have devastating and lasting impact on the economy which will cause suffering particularly to the working class.

We make these trade-offs all of the time. Studies show in the US that every increase of 10mph to the posted speed limit leads to 8% more highway deaths. We choose to set the speed limit (in most places) to 65 mph. This is a decision that leads to thousands of extra deaths.

The liberals are arguing that this is a simple situation with a black and white solution. I don't think reality is simple at all. We are going to need to make trade-offs.

Well, Sweden has indeed a Socila-Democratic government, thus called "liberal" in the USA.
But in Sweden not only "liberals are arguing that this is a simple situation with a black and white solution" - the view is shared by the conservatives and (partly) the far-right as well.

You can see the “waves” in the graphs. There will always be waves as the virus is spread. Hopefully theses wave gets smaller.

I was looking for polls on public opinion in Sweden. I know about the 2300 scientists, I am curious about the opinions of the 10 million other Swedes who didn't sign that letter.

I assume the government has significant public support (or they would back down).

Well, it certainly might be that those 10 million Swedes are the better experts. (As far as I know, compulsory schooling starts in Sweden at the age of five. That would reduce the number of 10 million Swedes writing a letter a bit.)

The question about when to shutdown a country is not a scientific question. There are too many subjective judgments that need to be made. Science can not make subjective judgments.

There is whole other side to this issue than epidemiology. There are economic questions, the pain and suffering caused to the working class. The social stress. Notably, all of these are causes of death in themselves.

Science can answer scientific questions...

But are you willing to have a speed limit over 30kph, or sell refined sugar, or allow people to ski when you know that any of these things will increase the number of premature deaths.

These are value judgments that require a balanced choice about risk and lifestyles. Making these subjective judgments is beyond the reach of scientific expertise.

Sweden's government is threatening to close the restaurants in Stockholm that have been open so far, because they are apparently ignoring recommendations in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus. Restaurants and street cafés in the capital should from now on be checked more intensively whether they comply with the recommendations of the national health authority, said Interior Minister Mikael Damberg. The authority's instructions are not advice, but guidelines that should be followed. "Otherwise these establishments will be closed down", Damberg said.

Today, total of 17,567 cases of the coronavirus have been confirmed in Sweden, up from 16,755 on Thursday. After a few days when it looked like the curve was stabilising, the number of new cases is again "at a higher level", said state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell at the Public Health Agency's daily press briefing.
The number of people in intensive care remains at a stable level, with 1,256 treated in intensive care units so far.

Article from today in the BBC asking the same question I am asking.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

"I think there's a perception out there that Sweden has not put in place control measures and has just allowed the disease to spread. Nothing could be further from the truth: Sweden has put in place a very strong public health policy around physical distancing, around caring for and protecting people in long term facilities and many other things," said Michael Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organisation's health emergencies programme.
Source and more information @ Svenska Dagbladet

That's the point Walter... a middle path.

Here I face a $300 fine if the police catch me without a mask whether or not I am anywhere near other people. Sweden is taking reasonable steps while avoiding the extremes.