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Impeachment Trial: Strategy and Prediction thread

 
 
maxdancona
 
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Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2019 07:10 pm
@oralloy,
I think the Democrats will find the 51 votes to block this.
maxdancona
 
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Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2019 07:12 pm
@oralloy,
Do you think Trump wants to leave this hanging? (Ler alone the voters).
oralloy
 
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Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2019 08:10 pm
@maxdancona,
Impeachment is an attempt to remove someone from office. I think he would be fine with them aborting the process and not trying to remove him from office.
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oralloy
 
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Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2019 08:12 pm
@maxdancona,
If they let the Democrats compel people to testify, they will definitely also allow Mr. Trump to do the same with anyone that he wants to compel testimony from, including Hunter Biden and the supposed whistle blower.
maxdancona
 
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Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2019 09:12 pm
The challenge of this exercise is to see the situation from the perspective of people who aren't us.

You and I Oralloy, are not part of this game. We are partisans (although on opposite sides). Our positions are fixed. It is very unlikely for anything that comes up to change your mind so that you support Trump's impeachment. Likewise it is very unlikely that anything will change my mind so that I oppose it.

There are several ways that this can backfire on the Democrats in a big way. I suspect you, being a Republican partisan, already understand this. I can outline this for you if you need. If the public at large agrees with Trump and his supporters that this is nothing but a partisan witch hunt, then the Democrats will pay dearly politically. This might happen, but unless you have a crystal ball, I think you are being foolish if you see this as a certainty.

There are also several ways that this can backfire seriously on the Republicans. If you don't understand this, then your partisanship is getting in the way of you understanding the chess match that is going on.

For better or for worse, the Republicans are now glued to Trump, it will be hard for the Republicans to extricate themselves if things go south (I think this was part of the strategy from the Democrats).

I am challenging you to step outside of your partisan bubble to analyze the strategy that is happening. McConnell is not an idiot, but neither is Pelosi. It think reality is a lot more messy that you are pretending.
maxdancona
 
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Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2019 09:25 pm
@oralloy,
I think putting Hunter Biden on the stand would be a risky move for the Republicans. Let's look at both the pros and the cons of this move.

Pros (how this could help the Republicans)

1. The logical reason to put Hunter Biden on the stand is to show that asking Ukraine to investigate the Bidens was justified. Donald Trump is the defendant, Hunter Biden could prove that there was corruption in Ukraine.

2. Hunter Biden is a despicable figure; a drug addict who got paid by a corrupt gas company based on his family connection.

3. This paints Joe Biden in a bad light.

Cons (how this could hurt the Republicans)

1. This doesn't logically prove that Trump is innocent and may not even be seen as relevant to the general public (remember the target audience is the non-partisan Americans who by definition don't see things as you do)

2. If Trump is arguing that investigating the Bidens was justified, he is admitting that he was investigating the Bidens. The Democrats can then ask why it was only the Bidens he was investigating (it opens an unconfortable line of questioning.

3. If the general public doesn't buy the Republican narrative about Hunter Biden, there could be a backlash. They could be seen as attacking him only because he is the son of his rival.

I have no idea how Hunter Biden would do on the stand, but if he is well coached (and I assume he would be) he can be contrite about taking the job, and not answer any meaningful questions. He might even get some sympathy from the American public.

Who knows what would happen... this would be a big risky move from the Republicans. Clearly McConnell (who is not an idiot) wants to avoid this spectacle.
oralloy
 
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Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2019 10:03 pm
@maxdancona,
Risky or not, if there is a real trial with real witnesses, Mr. Trump will get to call his witnesses too.
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oralloy
 
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Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2019 10:04 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
I suspect you, being a Republican partisan, already understand this.

I'm a conservative partisan. Take a look at my gravatar image.

I've not changed political parties despite being highly disgruntled. I still look forward to the day when the far left is drummed out of the Democratic Party.

I don't think much will come of this impeachment debacle in the way of backlash against either party. Possibly House Democrats in conservative districts will lose reelection if they voted for impeachment (and the Republicans should try to make that happen), but I don't anticipate anything else of significance to come of this.

I think Mr. Trump will be reelected, and then another Trumpian Republican will be elected to follow him. But not because of the impeachment. I already thought that long before Mr. Trump won the 2016 election.
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