Sidderaal00 wrote:You're not right about Green Left. Green Left got the most well-educated voters of all parties, and so on they earn more then average and so on they usually live more in white neighorhoods.
Nope. You can look this stuff up. They do polls on the income/education of voters after each elections and election results by neighbourhoods can be found at the city hall.
Yes, you'll have guessed I'm an utter nerd about these things. I made whole studies of this neighbourhoods thing, man!
You're right on one count: Green Left voters are on average quite highly educated. Overrepresentation of university graduates.
But this doesnt translate (as of yet) into higher-than-average incomes. Perhaps because the GL attracts a lot of students and young people who've only just graduated. Perhaps b/c of the stereotype about how the GL attracts, you know, sociologists, linguists, people like that - not the economy and law graduates who go on to make big money ;-). Perhaps because the GL traditionally also does well among "uitkeringstrekkers" (those on benefits). I dont know exactly
why - probably a combination of factors - but its true.
In my archive, for example, is this table of party preference by income level that was published by the Volkskrant after the local elections of 2002. Among those earning
less than average ("modaal"), the Green Left got 7% of the vote, while among those earning up to or over 2 times average, it got 5%. Fairly even across the scale thus, but still slanted towards the lower incomes. The same held true, but more strongly of course, for Labour, the Socialist Party and also the Christian-Democrats and small Christian parties. It was for the Democrats'66 and the VVD that the opposite was true.
In fact, there's something funny about the statistical pattern: its like - university graduates are likely to vote GL - until they start earning enough, and then they move on to D66

.
I participate in Maurice de Hond's poll panel, and there too I see week after week that the Green Left is among the parties overrepresented in my income bracket - the bottom one, that is. Along with the Socialists, the small Christian parties and the lists Fortuyn/Wilders.
By heart, the pattern basically is:
High educated/low income - more than average (likely to vote) GL or SP.
High educated/high income - more than average D66 or VVD.
Low educated/high income - more than average VVD, List Fortuyn.
Low educated/low income - more than average Labour, SP, Fortuyn.
The pattern is also impacted by preferences of ethnic groups. Most immigrants traditionally vote Labour, but between 1994-2002 the Moroccans voted Green Left. They seem to have left again in 2003 though.
You can see all this back in the results by city and neighbourhood. The Green Left traditionally does best in the largest cities (except Rotterdam) and the university towns, with Amsterdam and Utrecht on top. It does worst in villages and suburbs. There's small towns where it does pretty well too, but a Vinexwijk is pretty much the least likely place to find Green Lefters. In Utrecht, for example, the brand new Leidsche Rijn district and the newly incorporated (and wholly white) towns of Vleuten/De Meern is where it gets least votes of all. Instead, it does best in the inner city, or rather, the neighbourhoods around it.
Let's take Utrecht, thats where I live now. The old PSP and CPN in the 80s did best in the inner city (binnenstad). But since the binnenstad became more prosperous, with squatters and students moving out, the Green Left has had to yield ground there to first D66, then VVD. Instead, it now does best in, on the one hand, multicultural Lombok/Nieuw-Engeland and the Staatsliedenbuurt; and on the other hand the "trendy" neighbourhoods bordering downtown: Vogelenbuurt, Wittevrouwen, Oudwijk.
Sociologically speaking, its a precarious balance. If an old working class neighbourhood starts gentrifying, like Lombok did, thats good news for the Green Left, whose voters are the first to move in. But when the neighbourhood then really starts picking up and attracting yuppies, like Wittevrouwen is now, the Green Left starts losing ground again.
Overall though, if you compare the Green Left now with the PSP/PPR/CPN of 1989, it's become much more a "people's party", its support much more equally spread across the different neighbourhoods. In fact, interestingly enough, compared to '89 the Green Left in Utrecht has won significantly both in the poor "volkswijken" and in the most prosperous neighbourhoods, but has actually
lost support in its old bulwarks of the inner city (Binnenstad as well as Vogelenbuurt and Wittevrouwen). I was really surprised when I saw that. So when I wrote an analysis of the results for my fellow-GL'ers here in 2002, I called it
"Branching out - from elite- to people's party".
Fair is fair though: this trend has not continued under Femke Halsema. For one, the GL lost all its Moroccan support in 2003 (probably because of how Rabbae was worked out of the party), while it consolidated itself in the upper/middle-class neighbourhoods. It might thus be that in, say, another eight years you will be right after all. The German Greens after all also used to have the poorest voters of all back in the eighties - and now have the richest voters of all. I dont
hope thats where we're going, but with Halsema and her "social liberalism" in charge of the party we might. For now, though, you remain wrong ;-).
Anyway, hope I didnt bore the socks off you in the meantime ...