Sidderaal00 wrote:(almost made it to prime-minister)
[..] Polls showed before his murder that his party would be the biggest.
Nope. The List Fortuyn peaked first in Week 12 of 2002, when the average of the polls out that week gave it 26 seats, against 25 for the VVD, 30 for the Christian-Democrats and 31 for Labour. That was right after Fortuyn's famous debate with Melkert, Dijkstal c.s. following the local elections.
The List then again peaked right before the 2002 elections, when news of his assassination had just broken. The last poll out showed Labour collapsing and the Christian Democrats and the List Fortuyn moving up. Labour was at 24 seats, the List at 25, the VVD at 27 and the Christian-Democrats at 34.
I don't know about individual polls, its true - there were three, de Hond's, NIPO's and the Politieke Barometer, but from back then I only preserved the weekly averages in my excel sheet, not each individual poll's numbers. So it could be that de Hond for example once had the List in the #1 spot. Though I doubt it, the difference in the average is too big (with the avarage as it stands, for example, it would mean that if one poll had the LPF ahead of Labour by 1 seat in Week 12, the other two polls must have had Labour up by 8 each, or by 7 and 9, etc.).
Speculation of course was rife about what might happen in elections that immediately followed the murder - how voters might flock to the LPF in protest. In my voting district people did come in to vote with a triumphant cry of "For Pim!". But tho the List got 26 seats, it was the Christian-Democrats, as we know, who hauled in the confused and doubting voters, winning 43.
And yeah, now we're stuck with Harry Potter ...