A wish and a prayer for the Ukrainian democrats, please

Does anyone think this situ will have recriminations between the West and Russia?

The political crisis in Ukraine marks a reality check for US-Russian relations and may force President Bush to re-evaluate ties with President Vladimir Putin, his close ally in the war on terror.

Despite his crusade to spread democracy in the Middle East and elsewhere, Bush until recently has been largely tolerant of Putin, whose policies critics fear are shifting Russia back to state control from post-Soviet liberalism.
Putin's direct intervention in neighbouring Ukraine's disputed presidential election was for many in Washington a bridge too far, helping undermine the incipient democratic process in a strategically important country.

I sorta suspect Putin's Russia will be the next shore to be lapped by the wave of democracy ... and I sorta suspect Putin suspects that too. That's worrisome - a cornered critter is an unpredictable critter, and a wounded, cornered critter is downright dangerous. Ignored by Byelorus, challenged interminably in Chechnya and Georgia, repudiated by Ukraine, and abandoned by the entire former Warsaw Pact, Putin is within his rights to be feelin' more than just a little desperate.

Of some comfort is the fact the eyes of the world are on Ukraine - a scrutiny more intense than any ever faced by Putin. He is not stupid; it may be hoped he recognizes the dire ramifications of further overt Russian heavy-handedness in this matter. For the future of Russia as he envisages it, his best, and only viable, option is to cut his losses and concentrate on trying to head off, or at least ammeliorate, the inevitable domestic Russian upheaval which will follow closely on what is happening in Ukraine.

But that's the thing about desperate critters - you can't tell what they're gonna do 'till they do it.

Edit - there are no "e"s in "Warsaw"

He is not stupid; it may be hoped he recognizes the dire ramifications of further overt Russian heavy-handedness in this matter. For the future of Russia as he envisages it, his best, and only viable, option is to cut his losses

before I/we go on worrying, I'm gonna join Lash in a cheer of elation! Yahay!!

Ukraine Officials Fail to Vote on Reforms

ALEKSANDAR VASOVIC

Associated Press


KIEV, Ukraine - Parliament adjourned a raucous session Tuesday without voting on amendments to secure a fair rerun of the disputed presidential vote later this month, and throngs of opposition protesters appeared to be growing restless with the prolonged political crisis.

Supporters of opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko say the changes are necessary to close loopholes for fraud that marred the Nov. 21 presidential runoff. Evidence of systematic vote-rigging prompted the Supreme Court to cancel the victory of Kremlin-backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and order the revote on Dec. 26.

Also Tuesday, outgoing President Leonid Kuchma approved a leave of absence for Yanukovych so he could conduct his presidential campaign, and named First Deputy Prime Minister Mykola Azarov to be temporarily in charge of the Cabinet, the presidential office said in a statement. Yanukovych announced Monday he was taking the leave.

A loose coalition of communists, socialists and pro-government factions in parliament had insisted that the electoral changes should be passed at the same time as the constitutional reforms to trim presidential powers. Yushchenko has balked at the changes, saying that Kuchma allies fear his victory and want to curtail his authority.

Rival parliamentary factions reached a tentative agreement Monday to vote on the legal changes all at once, but the deal collapsed later after several hours of European-sponsored talks between Kuchma and both rivals.

A somber Kuchma said the parties had failed to agree on the constitutional reform and on the opposition's insistence on Yanukovych resigning as premier.

The compromise had included opposition demands to delay implementation of the constitutional changes until after spring 2006 parliamentary elections, which Yushchenko's allies hope to win.

A pro-Yushchenko majority in parliament would render many of the constitutional changes to hand more power to parliament less restrictive to him.

But on Tuesday, Yushchenko's supporters again complained against the simultaneous vote.

"We won't vote for any package deals," said Yushchenko's fiery ally Yulia Tymoshenko.

Yushchenko's opponents accused him of bad faith during a rowdy parliament session that featured angry shouts and sarcastic speeches until parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn adjourned it until Wednesday.

A similar compromise deal between Yushchenko's supporters and pro-government lawmakers fell apart Saturday, one day after the Supreme Court's momentous ruling.

Lytvyn said Kuchma would attend the parliament session and sign bills into law if a compromise is reached.

In a communique released after six-hour talks with European sponsors that dragged long after midnight, Kuchma pledged to reshuffle the Central Election Commission - a key opposition demand. The statement signed by both rivals also emphasized the need to pass electoral changes to ensure "a fair and transparent vote."

On Tuesday, Yushchenko backers, now in their third straight week of protests in a sprawling tent camp in downtown Kiev, lashed out at what they described as "Kuchma's plots."

"We have been peaceful so far," said a protester who identified himself only as Vyacheslav. If Yushchenko wants to force Kuchma to concede defeat in his attempt to hand power to his chosen successor, "we are ready," Vyacheslav said - a tacit threat that the demonstrations could turn violent.

At a barricade blocking the entrance to the Cabinet building, Yushchenko's orange-clad supporters were determined not to let "a single bureaucrat enter," said Adam Yanakievych from Kiev.

Meanwhile, pro-government lawmaker Stepan Havrysh became the latest senior official to defect from the Yanukovych camp, telling Kiev's Stolytchniye Novosty weekly he would not participate in the election campaign. Havrysh was Yanukovych's representative on the Central Election Commission.

Yanukovych's campaign manager Serhiy Tyhypko also resigned last week. Yanukovych has appointed lawmaker Taras Chornovil as the new campaign manager.

Mikhail Pogrebinsky, an Kuchma-allied analyst with the Institute of Political and Conflict Studies, said he expected the president to cave in to the opposition's demand to fire Yanukovych.

"Kuchma is coming under enormous pressure, and he has been slowly taking a step back every day," Pogrebinsky said. "I fully expect this next concession today."

In his campaign speech Tuesday, Yanukovych sought to distance himself from Kuchma, apparently trying to shed an image that he is Kuchma's puppet. If Kuchma fires him, that could actually help Yanukovych's desperate effort to expand his support base.

Nestor Shufrych, a pro-Yanukovych lawmaker, said the issue was moot because Yanukovych had already taken a leave of absence to campaign. The opposition wants Yanukovych fired simply to "take revenge," he said.

Ukraine's Opposition Sees Path to Victory
Wed Dec 8, 2004 11:16 AM ET

By Ron Popeski
KIEV, Ukraine (Reuters) - Opposition hopeful Viktor Yushchenko said Wednesday a parliamentary vote to root out cheating in elections opened the way for him to win a re-run of a rigged presidential poll.

But to secure parliamentary backing for fairer election laws, Yushchenko bowed to demands from outgoing President Leonid Kuchma to curb the powers of the office he may well win after two weeks of mass demonstrations in his support.

"Today's decision opens the way for my victory in 18-20 Ukrainian regions," Yushchenko told reporters outside parliament after the vote. "The main thing is today we managed to achieve what we had hoped for. This is a day of historic compromise."

He said the parliamentary vote was a "serious change in the ideology and mechanism of elections" to allow a new election without mass fraud. The Supreme Court annulled last month's election, won by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, and ordered a new ballot on Dec. 26.

But Russia, which openly backed Yanukovich, stepped up its rhetoric against both a Yushchenko win and what it perceived as Western meddling in its backyard.

The assembly broke into applause as speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn announced results showing nearly all groups had backed a new election law and a series of constitutional amendments.

"These decisions should pave the way for a free and fair re-run of elections in Ukraine on Dec. 26," European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said in a statement, one of several international mediators in the crisis.

Under the compromises, Ukraine's next president will have fewer powers, parliament and the regions will be stronger and control over the electoral process will be tighter.

Kuchma's more radical rivals said parliament had caved in.

"This vote means the president's powers are severely cut and that means a victory for Kuchma," opposition firebrand Yulia Tymoshenko told reporters.

Activists were considering pulling back from government buildings. Many thousands remained in the center of Kiev.

YANUKOVICH ROUSES SUPPORTERS

Yanukovich, who remains prime minister but is on a "break" to campaign for the re-run, urged supporters to gird themselves.

"If we win the new vote and they try to deal with us in the same way, we will simply have to defend our victory," he told supporters in his native eastern Ukraine.

The crisis, which has cranked up tensions between Russia and the West, still reverberated throughout Europe.

Russian parliament speaker Boris Gryzlov, another mediator, said Ukraine could only remain united if Yanukovich won again. He denounced the Supreme Court's decision ordering a new run-off between the two top candidates.

"The court had no legal right whatsoever to give its assessment of the election and, furthermore, it had no right to pass a ruling on such a formulation as a re-run of the second round of voting," he told reporters in Kazakhstan

Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Adam Rotfeld said Russia's stand was a "return to its old position ... from the Cold War."

NATO postponed a meeting due Thursday between its foreign ministers and Ukraine's, but pledged talks with a minister of a "new and legitimate" Kiev government, NATO sources said.

In parliament, 402 of 450 members, enough to approve amendments to the post-Soviet constitution, backed changes to the electoral law to prevent a recurrence of fraud.

"This is an act of consolidation and reconciliation, an act which demonstrates that Ukraine is united," speaker Lytvyn said.

He and Kuchma, who minutes earlier had agreed to an opposition demand to sack the prosecutor general, held aloft documents approved by the assembly.

By the same vote, members also approved changes to the constitution to reduce powers of the president and increase those of parliament -- key demands set by Kuchma and his parliamentary supporters in order to support election reform.

Regions will also get extra powers to ease tensions between the nationalist west and Russian-speaking east of the country.

"Kuchma showed that he is still the strongest player in Ukrainian politics," said analyst Oleksander Lytvynenko. "The opposition could not use the mass support it had mustered."