Abbas succeeds Arafat as PLO head

Very, VERY good news.

so the bloody contest for the power won't take place?

hmm, think so

Economist Com's analysis - I think this is premium content - so I will give some excerpts:



A chance for peace, or more conflict?

Nov 11th 2004
From The Economist Global Agenda


The death of Yasser Arafat was announced on Thursday morning. The veteran Palestinian leader's passing should bring an opportunity to revive the deadlocked Middle East peace process. But no one would be surprised if it were allowed to slip away........

.......Mr Arafat did not groom a successor and, for the time being at least, a collective leadership will take his place. Ahmed Qurei, his prime minister, will continue in day-to-day control of the Palestinian Authority (PA). Another moderate, Mahmoud Abbas, a former prime minister, has succeeded Mr Arafat as chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation. But his job as leader of the Fatah political party has gone to Farouk Kaddoumi, a hardliner currently in exile. The speaker of the Palestinian assembly, Rahwi Fattouh, has been made caretaker president of the PA in Mr Arafat's place, with the task of organising an election within 60 days.......

........His death comes at a time when Mr Bush has been re-elected on a strengthened mandate and Mr Sharon has been making progress on his plan to withdraw Israeli troops and settlers from the Gaza strip. Mr Bush might now be emboldened to press his friend Mr Sharon to make concessions?in particular, to cease military incursions in the occupied territories, stop assassinating militant leaders, release prisoners and ease travel curbs on Palestinians. If he could no longer claim to have no credible interlocutor on the Palestinian side, Mr Sharon would also be under pressure to co-ordinate the proposed Gaza pull-out with the PA leadership, rather than go it alone, and to reopen talks on the creation of a Palestinian state.......

....In any case, the successful implementation of the security plan will need not just the goodwill of the militants; it will also depend on the unity of the PA leadership. And a protracted power struggle between his possible successors cannot be ruled out. Mr Abbas and Mr Qurei are the leading candidates for Palestinian president from within the PA. Both men would be acceptable negotiating partners to the Israelis and Americans. But they are not popular among ordinary Palestinians, who might prefer someone like Marwan Barghouti, a pragmatic young Fatah leader?though he is currently in an Israeli jail serving a life sentence for involvement in attacks on Israelis (which he denies).

Will the various leaders of the Palestinian struggle now pull together to seek a negotiated peace with the Israelis? Or will they spend months or years squabbling while the bloodshed continues? Anything less than a complete ceasefire might give Mr Sharon the perfect excuse to continue doing things his own way instead of returning to the negotiating table. Israelis and Palestinians have seen many opportunities for a lasting peace come and go, so their hopes are unlikely to be raised too far by this one.

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3373695

Abbas was making huge strides towards a palestinian-Israeli peace before Arafat relieved him of his duties. It's good to see him back behind the reigns. Perhaps he will make a difference.

More on possible successors: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1362216.stm

Summary of contenders from the Beebs article:

AHMED QUREI ('TUNISIAN')
Ahmed Qurei

Better known as Abu Ala, Mr Qurei is the Palestinian prime minister and a figure closely involved in the secret negotiations which led to the Oslo peace agreement with Israel in 1993.

Born in Jerusalem in 1937, Mr Qurei rose to prominence in the PLO in the mid-1970s, and was close to Yasser Arafat in Lebanon and Tunis, before returning to Gaza with the PLO leader in 1994.

After taking over as the Palestinians' second prime minister in September 2003, Mr Qurei exhibited an independence which sat uneasily with Mr Arafat's autocratic style.

He threatened to resign several times over Mr Arafat's failure to give him sufficient powers, but was always persuaded to stay.

Profile: Ahmed Qurei

MAHMOUD ABBAS ('TUNISIAN')
Mahmoud Abbas

Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, has taken over from Yasser Arafat as chairman of the PLO.

Mr Abbas had long been Mr Arafat's number two in the PLO. Co-founder of the Fatah movement, he is another moderate who has frequently negotiated with the Israelis.

In early 2003, he was appointed by Mr Arafat as the Palestinians' first ever prime minister. The US, Israel and the European Union had insisted the Palestinian leader hand most of his powers over to another leader.

Abu Mazen's leadership was meant to open a new chapter in Israeli-Palestinian relations in which the peace plan known as the roadmap was meant to lead both sides towards resolution. He resigned after four months after losing a power struggle with Mr Arafat.

He is an outspoken critic of the violence that has been used in the current four-year-old Palestinian intifada and tried to get Islamic militants to end attacks on Israel.

Profile: Mahmoud Abbas

FAROUK KADDOUMI ('TUNISIAN')
Farouk Kaddoumi

Farouk Kaddoumi's appointment as head of Mr Arafat's political organisation, Fatah, was not widely foreseen.

Mr Kaddoumi, who is seen as a hardliner, was among those who founded the Fatah movement in 1965.

To show his opposition to the Oslo peace accord, he stayed behind in Tunis when his colleagues returned to Gaza and the West Bank to set up the PA a decade ago.

Since taking the reins at Fatah, Mr Kaddoumi has said he is open to peace negotiations with Israel - but is also ready to pursue armed struggle if they fail.

A potential contender for the post of PLO chief, he is said to have voted for Mr Abbas. Observers suggest that there could still be a power struggle with Mr Abbas. It remains unclear if he will leave his home in Tunisia for the Palestinian territories.

NABIL SHAATH ('TUNISIAN')
Nabil Shaath

Nabil Shaath had long been one of Mr Arafat's closest advisers and has been an important negotiator in Palestinian-Israeli talks.

Most recently, he played the role of ambassador to the outside world for Mr Arafat, who was under virtual house arrest in Ramallah before his death.

The former businessman who holds the post of foreign minister has a reputation of being a moderate.

YASSER ABED RABBO ('TUNISIAN')

Formerly a member of one of the left-wing factions, Yasser Abed Rabbo is now a senior PLO official. He is a former Palestinian Authority minister of information and culture.

Last year, Mr Abed Rabbo produced the Geneva Accord along with Yossi Beilin, a one-time Israeli justice minister and one of the main architects of the Oslo peace accord. The plan, an alternative to the US-backed roadmap, sought to define a "final status" solution based on a division close to that of the pre-1967 borders.

Earlier this year, Mr Abed Rabbo was among 60 leading Palestinian intellectuals and officials who signed a prominent advertisement urging Palestinian militants not to carry out suicide bombings against Israelis.

MOHAMMED DAHLAN ('INSIDER')
Mohammed Dahlan

Mohammed Dahlan is the former security chief in Gaza. As such, he has considerable experience of dealing face to face with the Israelis. He has also enjoyed the confidence of the United States.

Mr Dahlan is without an official post but retains influence in the Gaza Strip. He has been courted by international mediators as someone who could instil order there after a planned Israeli pullout next year.

His relations with Israel and the US have been viewed with deep suspicion by some Palestinians.

Profile: Mohammed Dahlan

JIBRIL RAJOUB ('INSIDER')
Jibril Rajoub

Jibril Rajoub is the former security chief of the West Bank, where he had built up an independent power base.

Like Mr Dahlan, he had fallen in and out of favour with Mr Arafat. But he is still influential and has considerable experience of dealing with the Israelis. Also, like Mr Dahlan, he is considered to be a pragmatist.

He speaks fluent Hebrew and English and is seen as acceptable in Washington and Israel. This, however, has affected his grassroots support.

Profile: Jibril Rajoub

MARWAN BARGHOUTI ('INSIDER')

He was the head of Fatah in the West Bank. Many believe him to be the most popular Palestinian politician after Mr Arafat.

Barghouti is currently in an Israeli jail serving five consecutive life sentences.

He was a strong backer of the Oslo peace accords and opposed attacks on Israeli civilians inside Israel. After the start of the current intifada in 2000, he became more militant.

He now backs Mr Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan, describing it as a great achievement of the intifada.

Profile: Marwan Barghouti


(Much more detailed profiles on the BBC site)

And washington Post article on what Arab commentators are saying:

HERE

Oh boy: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4011667.stm

Abbas unhurt in shooting spree

Mr Abbas insists it was not an attempt on his life
One of the most prominent figures in the Palestinian leadership, Mahmoud Abbas, has escaped injury in a shooting incident in Gaza City.
Armed men shouted angry slogans and shot into the air as Mr Abbas was visiting a mourning tent for Mr Arafat.

Mr Abbas was bundled away by security guards. Two guards were shot and died.

The incident, which has fanned fears of a power struggle after Mr Arafat's death, comes after a date was named for elections to choose his successor.

Elections for the president of the Palestinian Authority are to be held on 9 January.

Tensions high

Crowds of armed men were gathered at the sea-front compound when Mr Abbas - backed in some quarters to assume the Palestinian leadership - arrived at sundown.

It is very normal... Emotions are charged

Mahmoud Abbas

They began shouting slogans against Mr Abbas and his close ally, former Gaza security chief Mohammed Dahlan, including "Abbas and Dahlan are agents for the Americans", one report said.

Shots were fired into the air and Mr Abbas, who remained calm, was quickly bundled into a car and driven away. But more shooting ensued in the darkness.

As well as the two security guards reported to have died at least four Palestinians were injured, medics say.

The gunmen, believed to have been members of Mr Abbas' own fractured Fatah party, escaped.

In an interview with Palestinian TV shortly after the incident, Mr Abbas played it down.

"It is very normal," he said.

"Emotions are charged... I am certain that the issue does not have any political or personal dimension."

He blamed the incident on the crowds and "friction" among the armed men, and said he was "100% sure" it had not been an assassination attempt.

There is no doubt that the outbreak of violence was exactly the kind of thing that the new Palestinian leadership was hoping to avoid when it pleaded for calm in the wake of Mr Arafat's death, says the BBC's Alan Johnston in Gaza.

Mr Abbas was chosen as chairman of Palestine Liberation Organisation and Fatah - the biggest faction in the PLO and Mr Arafat's political organisation - after Mr Arafat died.


ARAFAT'S SUCCESSORS

Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei - has taken charge of the Palestinian Authority
Mahmoud Abbas - the former prime minister now heads the PLO, the umbrella body bringing together most Palestinian factions
Farouk Kaddoumi - now heads the Fatah faction


Who could follow Arafat?
He is seen as a moderate pragmatist, liked by Israel and the US but lacking strong popular support at home.

He is a strong contender for the Fatah candidacy in elections which interim President Rawhi Fattuh on Sunday announced would be held on 9 January.

Other potential successors include the Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei, who has effectively become the head of the Palestinian Authority, and Farouk Kaddoumi, who was appointed as head of Fatah after Mr Arafat's death.

Speaking at the Ramallah compound where Mr Arafat was buried on Friday, Mr Fattuh said candidates would be invited to put themselves forward for a period of 12 days from 20 November.

The election campaign will begin on 27 December and close the day before the poll is held.

Under Palestinian law, elections must be held within 60 days of a president's incapacitation or death.

Jerusalem question

The Palestinians have called on the US and the European Union to stop what they term any Israeli obstruction to holding a free, fair and complete vote.

The election has reportedly led to disagreements in the Israeli cabinet. Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has said Palestinians living in east Jerusalem should not vote because it could compromise talks on the status of the city.

But Israeli officials said Prime Minister Ariel Sharon did not share Mr Shalom's view, and pointed out that east Jerusalem Palestinians had voted in the 1996 elections.

Mr Qurei insisted the 228,000 Arabs in Jerusalem had the same right to vote as any other Palestinians.

Charles Krauthammer

And the world will wonder what is wrong with Israel?
Why can't they just get along?

I herard this described on radio yesterday as "The least desirable presidency in the world."

What a balancing act he faces!

Does anyone think he can do it?