"Impact of October surprise uncertain
Candidates try to spin bin Laden tape their own wayANALYSIS
By Dana Milbank
Updated: 10:14 p.m. ET Oct. 29, 2004WASHINGTON - With two days to spare, the October Surprise arrived yesterday, but it was not the type either campaign had in mind.
Instead, it was America's most loathed enemy, injecting himself into Tuesday's election ? not with the bombs that preceded the elections in Spain but with a videotape taunting President Bush, Democratic nominee John F. Kerry and Americans generally.
As Bush and Kerry responded with dignified statements of unity against Osama bin Laden, the two campaigns struggled to game out their reactions, and to figure out how such a surreal event ? the feared, ghostly image returning to Americans' TV screens after a long absence ? would alter Tuesday's outcome.
Some Democrats held out hope that the reappearance of bin Laden would remind Americans that Bush still had not caught the arch-villain, and lend legitimacy to Kerry's argument that Bush allowed the United States to get distracted in Iraq. But Republicans argued ? and some Democrats privately agreed ? that the videotape would revive Americans' fears of terrorism, an issue on which Bush is strongest.
Cautious responses
Few expected bin Laden's October Surprise to have a major impact on voters' choices. "The response from the American people is going to be more along the line of 'this guy is trying to inject himself in the process, and we don't like it,' " Republican pollster David Winston said. "Their response will be not to let him."
But in an election as close as this one is, even minor influences can have some impact. That concern was evident in the reaction to the tape's broadcast yesterday ? first an unusual silence, then hurried meetings and, finally, cautious statements.
Kerry went first. "Let me make it clear, crystal clear: As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists," he said.
Bush followed in nearly identical form. "Let me make this very clear: Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this."....."
Full story here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6365600/
