Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

Rishi Sunak’s new science minister has signalled the UK is “ready to go it alone” if the EU does not agree to Britain’s post-Brexit terms of membership.

Michelle Donelanm, the new secretary of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, said she is prepared to snub the EU’s £88.6bn flagship research scheme and create an alliance with the United States, Japan and Switzerland.

Writing in The Telegraph, Ms Donelan acknowledged that the science sector was eager to know about the UK’s association with the EU programme, Horizon, but if the partnership could not come to fruition, she said “we are more than ready to go it alone”.

The government’s junior minister for science George Freeman previously accused the European Commission of refusing to engage in talks over membership, saying Brussels was blocking Britain’s requests because of the row over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Eight months on and with progress still stalled, Ms Donelan said she would “not sit idly by while our researchers are sidelined”.

“If we cannot associate, we are more than ready to go it alone with our own global-facing alternative, working with science powerhouses such as the US, Switzerland and Japan to deliver international science collaborations,” she wrote.

“If we cannot associate, we are more than ready to go it alone with our own global-facing alternative, working with science powerhouses such as the US, Switzerland and Japan to deliver international science collaborations,” she wrote.

Whenever Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, talks about the economy, he is forced to mention the toll taken by Brexit.

Business leaders, initially reluctant to criticise the Tory decision to quit the EU, have begun to find their voice. Most recently, leading City figure Guy Hands called Brexit a “complete disaster” and a “bunch of total lies” that has harmed large parts of the economy.

Maybe, given the mounting evidence, it is unsurprising that business leaders, ministers and the shadow Labour team are meeting in secret to discuss how they can turn the situation around.

On Friday, the government was hit by the latest blow. AstraZeneca, the pharmaceutical firm lauded for providing its Covid-19 vaccine at cost to the UK and developing-world countries, said it would make Ireland the location of a new factory once destined to nestle near its existing UK manufacturing centres in north-west England. Before Brexit, the UK’s pharma industry benefited from £2bn of EU research funding. No longer.

The UK’s former chief Brexit negotiator has urged ministers to “fully and enthusiastically embrace the advantages of Brexit”, portraying a private meeting of prominent former leave and remain campaigners to discuss how to move on from Brexit in the national interest as a plot to undermine the deal he struck with the EU.

The two-day summit, revealed by the Observer on Sunday, was attended by the government minister Michael Gove, who is a former co-leader of the official Brexit campaign, and senior members of Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet.

They were joined by diplomats, defence experts and the heads of some major businesses for a discussion under the title: “How can

On Monday, David Frost referred to it as “a further piece of evidence that many in our political and business establishment want to unravel the deals we did to exit the EU in 2020 and to stay shadowing the EU instead”.

Attempting to explain the presence of prominent Brexit backers at the meeting alongside former remain supporters, he told the Daily Mail: “That’s why so many of those responsible for Theresa May’s failed backstop deal were there, while I and those who actually delivered the Brexit agreements were not.”

The Observer revealed that a confidential introductory statement acknowledged there was now a view among “some at least, that so far the UK has not yet found its way forward outside the EU” with Brexit “acting as a drag on our growth and inhibiting the UK’s potential”.

A source who was there told the paper it was a “constructive meeting” that addressed the problems and opportunities of Brexit but which dwelt heavily on the economic downside to the UK economy at a time of global instability and rising energy prices.

But Lord Frost said: “Brexit doesn’t need ‘fixing’. It needs this Conservative government, elected with a huge mandate on a Brexit programme, to fully and enthusiastically embrace its advantages instead of leaving the field to those who never wanted it in the first place.

“I and millions of others want the government to get on with that instead of raising taxes, deterring investment and pushing public spending to its highest level for 70 years.”

His comments come after the UK and EU reiterated their commitment to finding “joint solutions” to differences around the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol. There is mounting speculation that a deal is finally on the cards to reduce red tape on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Almost two in three Britons believe Brexit has damaged the UK economy, a new poll for The Independent has found.

Some 61 per cent of voters say quitting the EU has made Britain’s economy worse, according to the Savanta ComRes survey – with only 13 per cent saying it had improved the economic situation.

The poll also revealed that most people also believe Brexit has added to the UK’s mounting food supply crisis which has seen a “crippling” shortage of some goods in the supermarket during the cost of living crisis.

Some 55 per cent said Britain’s exit from the EU had worsened the availability of goods, only 14 per cent said it had improved availability.

The survey also found that 47 per cent of the public said Brexit has made their own finances worse, only 13 per cent said their bank balance had been boosted by Britain’s exit from the bloc.

“This poll shows that there’s a strong perception that Brexit has not gone particularly well,” said Savanta director Chris Hopkins.

“While that may not equate directly to Brexit regret, we see little evidence in the perceptions of both Remainers and Leavers that Brexit has left the UK in a better state,” he said.

The pollster said previous surveys showed that there was perception among the public that the Leave campaign “told more lies” than the Remain camp before and after the 2016 referendum.

“Perhaps it’s this sense of disingenuity that influences perceptions now, with some Leavers feeling that they were perhaps mis-sold Brexit, even though they wouldn’t necessarily reverse their decision if a referendum came round again,” Mr Hopkin added.

The latest survey shows a hardening of views about the impact of Brexit. A similar poll for The Independent in January found that 56 per cent believed quitting the EU has made the economy worse.

There is also strong scepticism about the idea Brexit can help control immigration. Some 44 per cent of voters said Brexit had made control of borders worse, while 17 per cent said it had improved border control.

It follows a report by Durham University which said Brexit had led to the small boats crisis because the decision to leave the EU without a returns agreement in place created a “skyrocketing” number of dangerous crossings in the English Channel.

Rishi Sunak is understood to be on the verge of signing an agreement with the EU in a bid to end the long-running dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

But he faces an uphill task in persuading the DUP to return to power-sharing arrangements at Stormont, while Tory Brexiteers are expected to rebel over a compromise deal if it maintains a role for the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

The latest Savanta poll shows a largely negative perception of Brexit’s role in ties to Europe and Britain’s standing in the world, more than two years on from leaving.

It found that 53 per cent believe Brexit has worsened the relationship with the EU, while 13 per cent said it had improved ties with the bloc. Some 47 per cent say Brexit has reduced the UK’s global influence, while 16 per cent said it had boosted Britain’s standing.

The past years has seen the rise of Brexit regret, amid the deluge of data showing the painful impact on the economy and its growing unpopularity in the polls.

In December, the Centre for European Reform (CER) found that Brexit cost the UK a staggering £33bn in lost trade, investment and growth. The CER also estimated the tax loss from Brexit at around £40bn.

Earlier this month Jonathan Haskell, an external member of Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said investment had been “stopped in its tracks” by Brexit.

As the PM faces the biggest challenge of his premiership, Tory divisions are coming to the fore

Rishi Sunak is facing the biggest challenge of his premiership as former Conservative party divisions over hard and soft Brexit are re-emerging just as he appeared to be on the cusp of a deal with the EU to end the protracted row over the Northern Ireland protocol.

Cracks emerging
A sign that a deal was imminent emerged last Thursday when the prime minister held secret talks with the DUP into the small hours of Friday with EU Brexit negotiators also summoning representatives from all EU states for a briefing.

Opponents in the wings and the cabinet
At the weekend, opponents of a feared fudge stepped out of the shadows, with Boris Johnson, Simon Clarke, the former levelling-up secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Suella Braverman all expressing reservations.

Can Sunak do a deal without the DUP and ERG?
Downing Street wants the DUP on board but the content of the rumoured deal and the timetable may not suit the party.

Last week, Sammy Wilson, the DUP MP for East Antrim said the party would return to Stormont if Northern Ireland remained “abandoned to the EU”.

The EU is not going to agree to the end of the application of the EU law in Northern Ireland, as it is the bedrock on which the protocol is built and means no new border is erected between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Commentators believe Sir Jeffrey Donaldson wants to return to Stormont but that the tough anti-protocol stance has boosted the party’s fortunes and will be a useful tool in the local elections in May.

What has been agreed so far?
Nobody is saying. The secrecy surrounding the negotiations has been extreme for fear of leaks. One source with knowledge of the talks said they knew that as soon as details leaked there would be “a feeding frenzy of piranhas on both sides” that could kill any deal at birth.

Green lanes
There are three main issues: the application of EU law in Northern Ireland to ensure no return of the hard border with the Republic of Ireland, the role of the ECJ, and checks on goods crossing the Irish sea.

The DUP and the British government want goods from Great Britain to flow as they did before Brexit – with no paperwork – arguing the protocol mandated the preservation of the UK internal market.

The EU had insisted detailed customs paperwork be completed for all goods travelling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland to enable it to track products.

Companies like Marks & Spencer have argued this is completely unnecessary as electronic stocktaking allows them to see what goods are on what shelves in which location in real time.

Is there a fix?
Yes. Sources say the EU has agreed a compromise involving a carve-out for all goods destined for supermarkets, corner shops, canteens in schools, hospitals, prisons and similar “end” settings. Details of a settlement on “intermediary goods” that could end up in finished products exported to the EU were still being negotiated.

The European court of justice
This has long been a red line for the so-called Brexit ultras including veteran Eurosceptic Bill Cash and the deputy head of the European Research Group, David Jones.

Is there a fix?
Negotiators think there is by removing the ability of the EU to go straight to the ECJ if it sees there is an infringement or “infraction” of the trade rules. Instead an arbitration panel involving NI and EU judges would be the first port of call in a dispute. Northern Ireland courts could also be involved in disputes over sanitary and phytosanitary controls on food and agriproducts that are devolved competencies.

Application of EU law in Northern Ireland
The ERG claims Northern Ireland is already drifting away from the rest of the UK with more than 400 pieces of legislation now applying there that do not apply in the UK and this will get worse.

Is there a fix?
Peter Hain has suggested a Norway-style deal giving Stormont ministers an official role on a committee that will assess and potentially amend draft EU legislation that impacts upon trade in Northern Ireland.

According to a study, a dissolution of the European Union would mean enormous losses in prosperity for the member states.

A dissolution of the European Union would result in enormous losses of prosperity for the member states. This is shown by analyses of a study by the Ifo Institute and EconPol Europe. The gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would decrease by 5.7 percent in Germany, by 7.8 percent in Austria, by 7.7 percent in the Netherlands and by 10.2 percent in Belgium. For France and Italy, the loss is 4.1 per cent each. Smaller economies such as Malta, (19.4 per cent), Luxembourg (18.1 per cent) and Estonia (11.8 per cent) would lose the most.

"If one additionally takes into account the transfer payments among the EU states, the loss of prosperity would almost double for transfer recipients like Hungary, Lithuania and Bulgaria. Net contributors like Germany and Sweden lose slightly less. However, the benefits that net contributors could draw from an end to transfer payments would be much smaller than the losses that would result from a dissolution of the EU," says Ifo researcher Jasmin Gröschl. For Germany, the benefits would amount to only 0.2 percentage points, compared to a loss of 5.2 percent from a dissolution of all EU agreements.

The economists also calculated the consequences of dissolving only the EU internal market. The loss of prosperity for large EU economies such as Germany (3.6 percent), France (3.0 percent), Italy (2.7 percent) or Spain (2.5 percent) is lower than that for small EU economies. For Austria, the dissolution of the EU single market would mean a loss of prosperity of 5.6 percent.

A dissolution of the EU customs union, on the other hand, would lead to smaller effects than the dissolution of the single market. The greatest losses would occur in Ireland (0.4 percent) and in the Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Poland and Slovenia (0.3 percent). The negative effects on the other EU countries would be small compared to today. A dissolution of the Eurozone would have negative effects on all member states. However, they would only be significant for Luxembourg (2.5 per cent) and Germany (0.7 per cent).

The study calculates the change in GDP per capita in the EU states as well as other third countries compared to the base year 2014 for various scenarios: complete dissolution of the EU (with and without taking into account transfer payments between member states); dissolution of the EU internal market; dissolution of the customs union; dissolution of the Schengen Agreement; as well as a dissolution of all free trade agreements of the EU existing with third countries.

Brexit is back on everyone’s radar as Rishi Sunak pushes to strike a deal over the Northern Ireland protocol.

The prime minister has been on a diplomatic blitz as he seeks an agreement that will satisfy the demands of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

The latest round of negotiations come three years after Britain left the European Union, when questions are still be asked - even among some Brexiteers - about how the Brexit has panned out.

In the run up to the 2016 referendum, campaign champions Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith stood outside a Vote Leave adorned red bus to make bold pledges on how leaving the union after 43 years could embolden Britain.

Claims were made that leaving the EU would be a democratic move for the UK, which could “take control” of its law setting and immigration. There were also big promises around how Britain could renew its position within the world with far-flung trade agreements as well as making progress back home with a better funded NHS.

The sense of progress can be measured in the latest Unherd study which found 54 per cent now feel it was the wrong decision while less than 30 per cent now “mildly” or “strongly” agree it was the right move.

But now the die is cast and the UK has reached the point of no return, the issues around Brexit are starting to be felt.

Here is how the claims made in 2016 have aged:

The pledge of £350 million a week for NHS
The biggest and most disputed claim put forward by the Vote Leave camp was that Britain sends £350 million a week to the EU and that the money could be used instead to fund the NHS.

Doubts immediately emerged about the legitimacy of the claim with even arch-Brexiter Nigel Farage, of the rival leave.eu campaign, saying: “I would never have made that claim, and it was one of the mistakes that the Leave campaign made”. Sajid Javid, then health secretary, told LBC radio host Nick Ferrari in 2020 the money diverted from the EU "hasn't been enough to meet the challenges” of the pandemic.

Theresa May did agree to grant the NHS £20 billion a year by 2023, which would be around £600 million in real terms by 2024 - but the extra cash was not a “Brexit dividend”.

Instead of Britain having surplus cash to use at its leisure, the UK has instead seen its economy shrink. The Centre for Economic Reform said in December that Brexit has left the UK economy is 5.5 per cent smaller than it would have been - and this in turn has seen a squeeze on public services, including the NHS.

The Centre said departing the EU single market reduced investment by 11 per cent and goods trade by 7 per cent in the second quarter of 2022. That has contributed to Britain trailing behind almost all other major economies, with the IMF predicting it would be the only one of the G7 economies to shrink in the periods ahead.

Frictionless trade and new deals around the world
“Europe yes, EU no,” the Vote Leave campaign proclaimed. “We have a new UK-EU treaty based on free trade and friendly cooperation. There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it.”

The campaign talked of frictionless trade deals with Europe, but while it looked good on paper the small print came littered with problems that made trade slightly harder than it had been as a member. The new customs processes has seen haulers transporting goods needing to fill out extra paperwork while new infrastructure has been needed to deal with queues.

Then international trade secretary Liam Fox was ridiculed in the press for his comment that 40 deals would be ready for “one second after midnight” on Brexit day. The first of these to be pushed through were with some unusual names, being: Switzerland, Chile, Israel, the Palestinian Authority, the Eastern and Southern African block and the Faroe Islands.

The UK has now struck trade deals with Australia and New Zealand but remains in talks with India and the USA. US president Joe Biden, in 2021, played down the chances of a deal, despite then prime minister Boris Johnson stressing the importance of it.

Although post-Brexit trade deals have been with over 70 countries, the vast majority are simply roll-over agreements which continue pre-Brexit arrangements.

Take back control on immigration
The UK adopted a new points based immigration system, a promise of the Vote Leave campaign, in January 2021.

This removed the right for EU workers to come to the UK without a visa and implemented the target to cut immigration to the tens of thousands.

The target does appear unlikely, given the number of residence visas issued was higher in the year ending June 2022 than in any year since records began - with 1.2 million issued. Although this did include EU residents now having to fill in the paperwork, around two thirds of those accepted were non European Union nationals.

Meanwhile, Brexit has created a shortage of 330,000 workers in UK. A joint report by the UK in a Changing Europe and the Centre for European Reform think tanks found the ending of free movement is “contributing significantly” to current labour shortages.

The study found the low-skilled sectors – including hospitality, retail, construction and transportation – had been badly hit by the loss of EU workers after Brexit.

By September 2022 there was a significant shortfall of around 460,000 EU-origin workers, not wholly compensated for by a rise in about 130,000 non-EU workers, the report said.

A recent report by Durham University found Brexit had created the small boats crisis in the English Channel because the lack of any returns agreement with the EU led to a “skyrocketing” increase in dangerous crossing

End supremacy of EU law
Northern Ireland will remain subject to EU customs union and single market rules, as part of the deal agreed by Boris Johnson.

Indeed, the Northern Ireland debate has hung over the UK for years as a deal has been pushed through. Problems with the protocol remain and Rishi Sunak is currently engaged in talks to try and smooth over the issue.

"The protocol is always in negotiations,” European Commission President Ursual von der Leyen said. “You know the principle that everything is only negotiated at the very end - when you know what the result is and you give a final signature.”

Jacob Rees-Mogg caused a cabinet row in June when he doubled down on plans to ditch all EU laws within four years. He was met with comments that such a move would be “literally impossible”. His then role of minister of state for Brexit opportunities has since been unfilled.

The union will be stronger
David Cameron went into the 2016 referendum on the back of an election victory and a 2014 vote on Scottish independence which he said “settled the debate for a generation”.

The Scottish National Party has been pushing for a second referendum, often pegged to the issue of Brexit, which a majority of Scots did not vote for.

The head of Spain’s largest farming association has pointed to Brexit and its impact on transportation, bureaucracy and border controls as the underlying cause of the UK salad crisis, saying there has been no major drop in production among his members.

EU Gruppenführer Von der Leyen

Ich bin ein Berliner.

We can't get back in the EU soon enough.

Do you think that's possible or likely? I'd think they'd strike a really tough deal with the UK as punishment (and maybe a deterrent), don't you?