Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

Queues of trucks stretching for five miles unexpectedly built up in Kent on Tuesday after the French started a trial of post-Brexit checks.

Lorries on their way across the English channel were forced to stop in long lines up to junction 11 on the M20 as they tried to approach the Eurotunnel entrance just outside Folkestone and the Port of Dover.

The queues give a glimpse of things to come in January whether a deal is reached or not with the government last month warning of queues of 7,000 lorries on the main motorway routes to both Eurotunnel and Dover ferries in the worst-case scenario.

The delays were caused after the Police Aux Frontières, the equivalent to Border Force, rehearsed new immigration procedures in Calais.

A spokesman for Highways England said they had been told a new trial software for border checks, with all HGVs been checked from 6am until 3pm, was responsible for the delay. “On a conference call chaired by Kent Police at 16.00 we were informed that the trial has now finished and traffic is now free flowing within the port. The queue of HGVs is backed up to around M20 J11, but we expect this to start to ease given the trial is no longer operational,” said the spokesman. Eurotunnel and Port of Dover was also on the call.

The controls require truck drivers to provide passports, and are asked about proof of means, their destination and length of stay which can last up to 70 seconds per passenger.

After January truck drivers, will also face additional delays for checks on food, drink and agricultural products and customs in both directions. [Emphasis added]

The briefing, marked “official sensitive” and dated September, lays out for government planners the possible impacts of the last stage of Brexit, detailing “reasonable worst case scenarios” across 20 different areas of national life from oil and healthcare to travel and policing.

It also summarises Whitehall’s views on the current state of the nation to provide context for those warnings, depicting a country struggling to overcome difficulties posed by one crisis, yet bracing for a second, as all departments are told to prepare for a “no deal” departure.

Global and British food supply chains will be disrupted by “circumstances occurring concurrently at the end of the year”, the paper warns. Stockpiles built up at the end of 2019 were diminished during the pandemic and cannot easily be replenished.

There will not be overall food shortages but problems could reduce availability of some fresh supplies and push up prices. Low income groups will be most at risk of food insecurity if there is a no-deal Brexit, including single parents, children in large families and those with disabilities.

Economic chaos could raise the risks of a breakdown in public order and a national mental health crisis, while reducing the “financial levers” available for the government to respond to other risks, this description of “planning assumptions” warns.

There may also be an increase in “community tensions” and public disorder. Police tracked increases in Brexit-related hate crime in March 2019 and the end of that year – two other periods of intensive political and public focus on leaving the EU, the briefing notes.

Michel Barnier says further negotiations would be pointless if UK does not change stance

The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has warned David Frost that without a major negotiating shift by Downing Street within the next 48 hours he will pull out of the Brexit negotiations in London this weekend, pushing the talks into a fresh crisis.

In talks via videoconference on Tuesday, Barnier told his British counterpart that further negotiations would be pointless if the UK was not willing to compromise on the outstanding issues.

Should Barnier effectively walk out on the negotiations it would present the most dangerous moment yet for the troubled talks, with just 36 days to go before the end of the transition period.
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EU leaders are due to meet on 10 December. The European parliament is due to hold a special session on 28 December to give its consent to a deal. However, any agreement would need to be finalised in the coming days to allow time for legal and parliamentary scrutiny and translation.

And the House of Lords has voted to force Boris Johnson’s government to seek the consent of the devolved administrations before ministers can exercise powers contained in No 10’s controversial Internal Market Bill.

How's that House of Lords going with the Westminster Paedophile Dossier, Walter?

The hot potato they've been passing around for almost four decades.

The City of London is facing fresh Brexit uncertainty after Brussels raised doubts over access to the EU market being granted by the end of the year for firms in any of the 26 areas of the financial services sector awaiting decisions.

Diplomats for the EU’s member states were told in a behind-doors meeting in Brussels that the failure of the British government to offer assurances over regulatory changes after 1 January was holding up the so-called “equivalence decisions”.

A European commission official said it was “unclear” whether it was in the EU’s interests to go any further in providing access to the European market for those working out of the UK given the uncertainty.

UK-based firms will lose automatic passporting rights at the end of the year which allow them to offer services across Europe. They will either need to establish bases in the EU or rely upon the European commission to unilaterally find UK regulations to be equivalent to the Brussels rulebook in order to continue to serve EU customers.

The prime minister needs to look beyond 31 December and start repairing relations with Britain’s neighbours

Boris Johnson has said that Britain will “prosper mightily” in the event that no trade deal is agreed with the EU before the end of the year. That hypothesis is coming dangerously close to being tested.

Brexit talks continue in London this weekend, with signals that a free trade deal is achievable by the end of the year, but far from certain. The areas where differences remain are mainly fishing, state subsidies, and the mechanism for enforcing whatever is agreed. Those are not minor issues.

Technically, it is easy enough to devise bridges between the two sides. The problem is lack of clarity about the real purpose of Brexit on the UK side, and the lack of trust that British vagueness engenders in Brussels. Boris Johnson is holding out for maximum sovereignty – zero commitment to EU norms – and insisting that such regulatory freedom poses no commercial or strategic challenge.

Plainly it does. The EU does not give non-member states generous access to the single market so they can undercut European competitors. And Mr Johnson’s promises that the future relationship can evolve harmoniously are belied by the fact that he has already unilaterally repudiated aspects of last year’s withdrawal agreement. The UK government has proved that its word is no bond, so Brussels demands robust sanction for future treaty breaches.

To secure any deal, the prime minister will have to compromise a little on sovereignty. That is how trade agreements work between medium-sized countries and continental blocs. That asymmetry of power does not change if a deal cannot be reached before 31 December. Negotiations would resume in 2021, but with more bitterness on both sides, exacerbated by Mr Johnson’s inevitable recourse to nationalistic rhetoric, blaming the failure of talks and their painful consequences on perfidious foreigners.

In that scenario, Mr Johnson’s forecast of Britain prospering mightily will look complacent at best. The prime minister likes to deal in distant horizons, from which he imagines future generations looking back, grateful for Brexit. But even if that destination were theoretically available, it is not happening soon.

In forecasts to accompany this week’s spending review, the Office for Budget Responsibility envisages a no-deal Brexit dragging growth down by 2% next year, in addition to a GDP shortfall of around 4%, which is the cost of quitting the single market and customs union even with a deal. That is all on top of damage done by the coronavirus. Unemployment is currently forecast to reach 7.4% next year – 2.6 million people. In a no-deal Brexit scenario, that would be higher, too, perhaps by 300,000. If things go badly wrong there could be 4.2 million people jobless by 2022.

Rishi Sunak made no mention of Brexit in his statement to the Commons on Wednesday, although he warned of an “economic emergency” accompanying the pandemic. When subsequently asked about additional risks on the European front, the chancellor declared a deal “preferable” but not something worth “stretching” for.

That is an abdication of responsibility from the cabinet’s second most powerful man. Mr Sunak should be insisting on a deal, not merely hoping for one. He is reported to have lobbied the prime minister in private, along with Michael Gove, whose job at the Cabinet Office involves direct responsibility for no-deal planning. Mr Gove knows the country is not ready.

But no Tory minister dares publicly to doubt the wisdom of crashing out of the EU on hostile terms. All must pay deference to the dream of a “clean break”, which is an old Eurosceptic metaphor for what is, in truth, the messiest and least rational method of detaching the UK from its current high level of integration with its biggest trading partner.

In reality, the demand for maximum separation has already been satisfied. Mr Johnson’s ambitions for a deal were limited to variations of a hard Brexit. The only remaining variable is the diplomacy – whether the disentanglement is achieved in a way that retains some goodwill, or done with rancour and aggression. Either way Britain has years of negotiations with Brussels ahead. There is nothing clean about Brexit. The question for Mr Johnson is not how to break relations even further, but when to start repairing them.

Face-to-face Brexit negotiations have resumed in London after being derailed by coronavirus infection, with just days effectively left to secure a trade deal before the transition period ends on 31 December.

Negotiator David Frost suggested a deal is “still possible” but insisted any deal must “fully respect” UK sovereignty, while his EU counterpart Michel Barnier warned “the same significant divergences remain” on fishing rights, governance and “level playing field” issues.

Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon will declare Scotland a “nation on the cusp of making history” with independence in “clear sight” at the SNP’s annual conference, after a clear succession of opinion polls showed a majority of support for a Yes vote.

The Independent

Irish foreign minister also calls for avoidance of blame game as ‘truth of Brexit’ becomes clear

Senior Irish and French and ministers have warned that the EU is not going to fall into a Brexit “negotiating trap” being laid by the UK as both sides entered into what British foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, has described as “the last week or so” of substantive talks.

Simon Coveney, who has had a leading role in the first phase of negotiations over the Irish border, said at the same time both sides must avoid engaging in a blame game as the “truth of Brexit” and its subsequent challenges become clear.

He added there was a big incentive to get a deal done but two big issues remained unresolved.

“The truth of Brexit is now being exposed in terms of the challenges of it,” Coveney told Radio Ulster. “This is something that the UK and the EU have to find a way forward on as opposed to focus on a blame game as regards who is at fault.”

France’s European affairs minister, Clément Beaune, said Downing Street was misguided if it believed that running down the clock would work to their advantage, citing the experience of the last four years of Brexit talks. “We have a bit of time left but still a long way to go and if the UK believes that (limited) time left works in its favour as it has in the past few years, that is not the case,” Beaune said.

On the issue of access to UK waters, Beaune said Downing Street would not be allowed to “lay down the law” in the negotiation. “We are still very far from an agreement,” he said. “There can be no agreement unless there is one that gives sustainable and wide-ranging access to British waters... Our terms are known, they are not new.”

Speaking at an event for parliamentarians from across Europe, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, conceded that there was some anxiety about the prolonged negotiations, with the Netherlands, Belgium and France all asking the European commission to trigger no-deal preparations in recent weeks.

She said: “We hope that these talks will come to a happy ending. We don’t need an agreement at any price. We want one but otherwise we’ll take measures that are necessary. In any case a deal is in the interest of all.

“Some member states are now becoming unsettled. There’s not much time left.”

Merkel hinted at the trade-off being offered in the negotiations between access to the EU’s single market in electricity and EU rights to catches in UK fishing waters. She said: “Perhaps for some the most tangible are concrete questions, from the British point of view access to energy markets, from our view access to British fishing grounds.”

The EU had always maintained there could be no trade deal unless the contentious issue of fishing was first agreed.

Although the sector contributes just 0.2% of the UK economy, it is a huge political issue for struggling coastal communities who rely on fishing and voted for Brexit.

Coveney suggested the UK was using it as leverage in other parts of the trade talks and was alive to the potential for the UK to agree compromises in other areas including state aid and governance and then use that to squeeze a last-minute compromise on fishing out of the EU.

“What we are not going to do is to get an agreement in all of these other areas and then allow a situation where the UK side say: ‘Look, we’re not going to allow this whole thing to collapse over fish’, and for us to essentially give Britain what they want over fish,” he said.

He said this would be a “British negotiating trap”, adding: “We’re not playing that game. If there isn’t an agreement on this the whole thing could fall on the back of it.”

It is thought the remaining dispute over fishing lies in both the length of a potential deal and the access of EU boats and fishing stocks in British coastal waters.

According to reports, the EU’s current offer on fishing – to return between 15-18% of fish stocks currently caught by EU fleets in British waters – was dismissed as “derisory” by British negotiators.

However, sources say the negotiations are focused on the quotas of each of the 140 species of fish. “It’s percentages of different types of fish – rights to cod in the English Channel is more important to Britain than, say, rights to mackerel in the North Sea,” said a source.

Downing Street said the negotiating teams led by Michel Barnier and David Frost worked until “late last night” in London but warned there would no compromise in the UK’s position on winning back control of fishing waters.

“We want to try and reach a free trade agreement as soon as possible. But we have been clear that we won’t change our negotiating position and we have been clear what that position is,” said Boris Johnson’s spokesman.

Significant gap remains as two sides enter crucial 48 hours of talks

Boris Johnson has lowered his Brexit demands on Brussels by asking for up to 60% of catches in UK waters back from EU fishing fleets but the gap between the negotiators remains wide, Michel Barnier told the bloc’s capitals ahead of what he said would be a crucial 48 hours.

In briefings to EU ambassadors and MEPs in Brussels, the bloc’s chief negotiator said Downing Street had revised its demand down from 80% but that it was unclear whether the divide could be bridged in the time remaining, prompting member states to caution against rushing into a deal.

The EU has so far offered the repatriation of 15%-18% of fishing catches. On the “level playing field” provisions, common ground is slowly being found, with the UK offering greater flexibility in recent days over a mechanism to ensure neither side can gain a competitive advantage by deregulating over time.

Speaking in front of EU representatives via videoconference from London, Barnier said some progress was also being made in giving Brussels assurances that the UK future domestic subsidies, known as state aid, would not distort trade once the transition period ends on 31 December. But there remain issues around domestic enforcement and dispute resolution.

“Barnier said the coming hours were going to be decisive to which the response was: ‘what’s the rush?’” said one senior EU diplomat. “Ambassadors for every country bordering the UK – 11 all in all – raised concerns on the level playing field and suggested that he was at the edge of his negotiating mandate”.

The EU ambassadors also urged Barnier not to allow fishing to become the last issue on the table for fear of pressure at the last moment enabling the UK to run away with a deal damaging to the European fishing industry.

Barnier also said that the negotiators were looking at including a review clause so that terms could be renegotiated in time, but ambassadors rejected that proposal. “The EU wants a stable deal not something that is going to be rewritten in a few years,” a source said.

Barnier told the ambassadors he would return to brief them on Friday, and emphasised the importance of progress during the talks in London in the next two days.

Bentley has lined up five cargo planes to fly in car parts if there is disruption at the UK border in the event of a no-deal Brexit, in a marker of the deep concerns facing motor manufacturers as trade negotiations continue.

Companies from across the economy have expressed concern that imports could be disrupted for weeks if the UK and EU cannot agree a deal before 1 January, when the Brexit transition period ends.

Adrian Hallmark, Bentley’s chief executive, said the firm had five cargo planes from the Russian planemaker Antonov on standby under a timeshare arrangement to avoid ports, which could quickly become congested if there is a cliff-edge change in trading rules.

Bentley, which is owned by Germany’s Volkswagen, the world’s largest carmaker by volume, has spent millions on preparations for Brexit, according to Hallmark. He was speaking at a conference organised by the Financial Times.

“We’re ready to jump off a cliff with a parachute that hasn’t been tested,” he said. “We’d rather not be jumping off the cliff with a parachute at all.”

Carmakers typically try to avoid using air transport because it is much more expensive than land or sea, but they do occasionally use planes to ship parts when there are urgent requirements.

Jaguar Land Rover, the UK’s largest carmaker, said in February that it had flown in some vital key fobs from China in suitcases when the start of the coronavirus pandemic caused shortages.

For the most part the UK’s logistics network passed the test posed by the pandemic, but all traffic moving across the Channel will face new paperwork whether a deal is agreed or not, while carmakers including Bentley also need to invest heavily to develop new electric cars.

Bentley, whose factory is in Crewe, Cheshire, has also looked at routeing imports through two other ports aside from Dover, including Immingham in Lincolnshire.

Stockpiling parts in extra, rented warehouses is another way that Bentley and other car companies are trying to avoid stopping production. Bentley now has the parts to cover 14 working days of production without new supplies, up from the two days of stock it usually holds.

Bentley only makes about 11,000 cars per year, meaning that stockpiling and flying in parts – while expensive – should protect it from the worst of any disruption. These are much less appealing options for large-volume carmakers such as Jaguar Land Rover or Nissan, whose Sunderland factory is the largest in the UK and can produce more than 1,300 cars a day.

Hallmark said disruption at ports would be more damaging to Bentley than 10% tariffs, which would kick in on 1 January if there is no deal and trade defaults to World Trade Organization terms.

Both Downing Street and the UK’s medicines regulator have contradicted a claim by Matt Hancock that Brexit helped the UK become the first western country to license a vaccine against coronavirus.

The health secretary asserted on Wednesday morning that “because of Brexit” the UK had been able to approve the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, rather than wait for the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to do so.

However, the government announcement of the decision said it had taken place under a provision of the Human Medicines Regulations, passed in 2012, which permits the rapid licensing of medicines in the event of an emergency such as a pandemic.

The UK is still under the remit of the EMA until the end of the Brexit transition period on 1 January, and EU laws also allow other member states to approve medicines for emergency use without EMA authorisation.

At a government briefing about the UK’s decision to become the first country to license the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for emergency use, the head of the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Authority (MHRA), which made the decision, cited EU rules. “We have been able to authorise the supply of this vaccine using provisions under European law, which exist until 1 January,” said June Raine, the MHRA’s chief executive.

Brexit talks are at a “very difficult point”, Downing Street has admitted, with Boris Johnson’s spokesman telling reporters time is running out if a deal is to be agreed.

The spokesman said “time is in very short supply and we are at a very difficult point in the talks”, before adding: “What is certain is that we will not be able to agree a deal which doesn’t respect our fundamental principles on sovereignty and taking back control.”

It comes after an EU official said on Friday that a trade deal was “imminent” and could be expected this weekend despite reports that both sides were appearing to harden their stance after negotiations went on until 11pm on Thursday.

As wary France threatened to veto a bad deal, European Council president Charles Michel said the UK had “choices to make” over the final stalling points, while British ministers again insisted the EU must recognise UK’s sovereignty.

Meanwhile, with just days left to secure a deal and tensions already high in Brussels, Mr Johnson’s government announced it will bring two bills in possible violation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement before the Commons next week, which it claims is necessary to prevent a border in the Irish Sea. Michel Barnier has reportedly told EU envoys such a breach of trust would plunge the talks into irreparable “crisis”.

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Peer-to-peer betting exchange Smarkets says the probability of a no-deal Brexit, as of Friday 4 December, is at a whopping 85 per cent, which is actually down slightly from 90 per cent likely on the evening prior, when the downbeat word from Number 10 prompted a spike in pessimism to an all-time high.

The price comparison site also says that the chance of the transition period being further extended is low, placing it at just 14 per cent likely.

“There is seemingly no hope of a trade deal with the US before the New Year, and with the chance of an extension to the transition period at just 14 per cent, a UK-EU deal is arguably now more important than ever,” commented Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets.

The above outfit will give you 2/11 in favour of Britain agreeing a deal with the EU before the year is out and 37/10 against.

Also offering odds on the question is Smarkets Sportsbook (SBK), which says the chances of a deal are 3/16 and of a no-deal are 37/10, according to Odds Checker.